Iran

Iran, at the end of the day, like the whole of ME is just a powder keg waiting to happen, with so much complexity and a lot of gung ho on all sides. I certainly wouldn't want to be involved in this mess!

Disagree, its not a 'Middle East' State.

They are not ethnically arabs, they are very proudly Ayrian and have a history dating back 3,000 years unlike the Arabs who were all herding goats in non existent states 100 years ago.

The population is highly educated, hard working and innately western in its outlook.
The current regime is very much an aberration, it was until we messed with it in the 50's a functioning democracy.

In many ways, they are like the Jews, an inherently civilised people living on the edge of a savage region with equally long histories
 
Disagree, its not a 'Middle East' State.

They are not ethnically arabs, they are very proudly Ayrian and have a history dating back 3,000 years unlike the Arabs who were all herding goats in non existent states 100 years ago.

The population is highly educated, hard working and innately western in its outlook.
The current regime is very much an aberration, it was until we messed with it in the 50's a functioning democracy.

In many ways, they are like the Jews, an inherently civilised people living on the edge of a savage region with equally long histories
I know - they are Persians - and proudly so - still is part of the ME area - probably one of the most western ones.
 
I know - they are Persians - and proudly so - still is part of the ME area - probably one of the most western ones.

Their traditional sphere of interest is the Gulf and towards the north.
We dropped the ball sidelining them against the Taliban.
Mischief making in the ME proper is a new hobby for them, and more a case of my enemies enemy is my friend.
 
Disagree, its not a 'Middle East' State.
They are not ethnically arabs, they are very proudly Ayrian and have a history dating back 3,000 years unlike the Arabs who were all herding goats in non existent states 100 years ago.
The population is highly educated, hard working and innately western in its outlook.
The current regime is very much an aberration, it was until we messed with it in the 50's a functioning democracy.
In many ways, they are like the Jews, an inherently civilised people living on the edge of a savage region with equally long histories
Regrettably this is true. Despite Iranian's affinity with the West, they feel not only distrust but that the current lack of democracy and corruption is the direct result of UK/US deliberately overturning their emergent democracy in the 50's - all in order to prevent them getting the market price for their oil.
It's no secret and not denied - here is US Secretary of State Madelaine Albright apologising for it:

 
Regrettably this is true. Despite Iranian's affinity with the West, they feel not only distrust but that the current lack of democracy and corruption is the direct result of UK/US deliberately overturning their emergent democracy in the 50's - all in order to prevent them getting the market price for their oil.
It's no secret and not denied - here is US Secretary of State Madelaine Albright apologising for it:


To understand Iran’s world view, you have to understand how much the legacy of Mossadegh burns to this day.
All Persians know of him, he’s regarded as the future as a fully modern State they were robbed of.
 
And how far off the coast when it was fired on
More importantly, whose maps are being used to determine where the sovereign coastal waters end? The US does not recognise the international law of the sea used to determine such things and so use their own maps which do not necessarily correspond to those recognised by international institutions or the rest of the world.

Of particular relevance in this case is that the US does not recognise the base lines used by either Iran or Oman in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman.

US differences with respect to Iran:
https://policy.defense.gov/Portals/11/Documents/gsa/cwmd/20150323 2015 DoD Annual FON Report.pdf
  • Excessive straight baselines;
  • restrictions on right of transit passage through Strait of Hormuz to signatories of the Law of the Sea Convention;
  • prohibition on foreign military activities and practices in the EEZ.
US differences with respect to Oman:
https://policy.defense.gov/Portals/11/FY17 DOD FON Report.pdf?ver=2018-01-19-163418-053
  • Excessive straight baselines
  • Requirement for innocent passage through the Strait of Hormuz, an international strait
  • Prior permission required for innocent passage of foreign military ships through the TTS
"Baselines" are the actual lines delineating the territorial seas. These do not necessarily follow the line of the coast exactly, so "12 nautical miles" is not actually an adequate description of how far out the territorial seas extend. There are rules established for drawing them, and each country which is a signatory to UNCLOS then files a set of geographic points defining the baselines.

In the event of disputes between UNCLOS signatories, UNCLOS also provides a resolution mechanism. However, the US isn't a signatory to UNCLOS so their objections don't mean anything legally.

So the question comes down to not just where was the drone in terms of latitude and longitude, but also where was it with respect to the American and Iranian maps, and do those maps differ significantly in this area?
 
More importantly, whose maps are being used to determine where the sovereign coastal waters end? The US does not recognise the international law of the sea used to determine such things and so use their own maps which do not necessarily correspond to those recognised by international institutions or the rest of the world.

Of particular relevance in this case is that the US does not recognise the base lines used by either Iran or Oman in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman.

US differences with respect to Iran:
https://policy.defense.gov/Portals/11/Documents/gsa/cwmd/20150323 2015 DoD Annual FON Report.pdf
  • Excessive straight baselines;
  • restrictions on right of transit passage through Strait of Hormuz to signatories of the Law of the Sea Convention;
  • prohibition on foreign military activities and practices in the EEZ.
US differences with respect to Oman:
https://policy.defense.gov/Portals/11/FY17 DOD FON Report.pdf?ver=2018-01-19-163418-053
  • Excessive straight baselines
  • Requirement for innocent passage through the Strait of Hormuz, an international strait
  • Prior permission required for innocent passage of foreign military ships through the TTS
"Baselines" are the actual lines delineating the territorial seas. These do not necessarily follow the line of the coast exactly, so "12 nautical miles" is not actually an adequate description of how far out the territorial seas extend. There are rules established for drawing them, and each country which is a signatory to UNCLOS then files a set of geographic points defining the baselines.

In the event of disputes between UNCLOS signatories, UNCLOS also provides a resolution mechanism. However, the US isn't a signatory to UNCLOS so their objections don't mean anything legally.

So the question comes down to not just where was the drone in terms of latitude and longitude, but also where was it with respect to the American and Iranian maps, and do those maps differ significantly in this area?

They do indeed appear to differ in the AoI



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As I said before, and I will say it again, I pity the fools who will actually be thrown into this meat grinder by people lazing around in an armchair in D.C.
 
As I said before, and I will say it again, I pity the fools who will actually be thrown into this meat grinder by people lazing around in an armchair in D.C.
To be a fool, you have to want that. Those that don't want it and wind up there ain't fools, they may be hapless. It's not a war with Iran that will be dangerous in that sense, it'll be what it leads to.
 
I think that yesterdays Judgement against arming Saudi is actually much more dangerous for us in the mid to long term. Not so much for the principle, but for the fact that we will lose capability and influence. and of course sales
 
I think that yesterdays Judgement against arming Saudi is actually much more dangerous for us in the mid to long term. Not so much for the principle, but for the fact that we will lose capability and influence. and of course sales
Concurr.

US won’t supply Saudis highest end gear, see Israel, so the Saudis come to us, if we blow them off, they will go to the Chinese or Russians
 
Headline in Israeli paper this morning - "Inherent lack of resolve"

Inherent lack of resolve: 7 things to know for June 21

What is Iran’s end game in This?
Why now to deliberately twist the Americans tail?
generally, when Iran acts like this, it’s one of two things....

Internal factional power games. Mullahs vs IRGC

Regime feeling vulnerable to public discontent and looking for an ‘outside threat’ to rally the public to the flag.
 
What is Iran’s end game in This?
Why now to deliberately twist the Americans tail?
generally, when Iran acts like this, it’s one of two things....

Internal factional power games. Mullahs vs IRGC

Regime feeling vulnerable to public discontent and looking for an ‘outside threat’ to rally the public to the flag.
To get economic relief from the EU, and prevent their economy from being crushed.
 

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