Iran

More US troops will be sent to the region.
U.S. deploys more troops to Middle East, blames Iran for tanker attacks - Reuters
Yep, 1,500 more, albeit some are already out there manning Patriot batteries and their presence will be extended:
Trump, however, described the latest deployments as defensive, in nature. The 1,500 troops include personnel manning missile defence systems, aerial surveillance to spot threats and engineers to fortify defences. It also includes a fighter jet squadron.

“We want to have protection in the Middle East. We’re going to be sending a relatively small number of troops, mostly protective,” Trump said as he left the White House for a trip to Japan.

The decision on troops marks a reversal of sorts for Trump, who only on Thursday said he thought no more forces were needed. Trump has sought to detangle the U.S. military from open-ended conflicts in places like Syria and Afghanistan.
 
It all seems vaguely familiar to the pre 2003 invasion of Iraq, stories put out by the US Administration without any evidence, warnings given out, Carrier force deployed to the Gulf, US Troops put on standby, Israel backing up the US. All part of the US/Israels plan for the Middle East. OK for Israel and now Saudi Arabia to have nukes but not OK for anyone else, Iran was complying with the nuclear accord - it wasn't Iran that pulled out of it either.

The question will be if it does kick off will Britain or any other European country receive an official request to join a US Coalition or will the US just go it alone?
I feel bad for the troops - all I can say is, good luck.
 
The attachment provides a pretty decent timeline for the way things have developed since GW1.

'Is Iran doomed to be an Iraq redux? This is just one of the questions raised by a crisis that has eerie parallels to the missteps that led to the Iraq War in 2003, where the buildup to conflict was precipitated by faulty intelligence and confrontational foreign policymakers such as John Bolton in President George W. Bush's administration. '

Trump administration, Bolton roles in Iran clash parallel Iraq war
 
The attachment provides a pretty decent timeline for the way things have developed since GW1.

'Is Iran doomed to be an Iraq redux? This is just one of the questions raised by a crisis that has eerie parallels to the missteps that led to the Iraq War in 2003, where the buildup to conflict was precipitated by faulty intelligence and confrontational foreign policymakers such as John Bolton in President George W. Bush's administration. '

Trump administration, Bolton roles in Iran clash parallel Iraq war
Let's hope this is just Big Stick Diplomacy, and not Trump leading us into a War with Iran.
 
An interesting piece of analysis from Cordesman on why Iran has turned to missile technology. A little like Russia's response to 5th Gen with SSC-8.

'Seen from an Iranian perspective, Iran is responding to proven threats from its neighbors and the U.S., and its inability to properly modernize its military forces since 1980.

'Iran's missile programs are part of a focus on asymmetric warfare where Iran has had no other options. Like its Arab neighbors, Iranian military modernization is critically dependent on arms imports. So far, Iran has not been able to raises its military production capabilities to the point of producing most forms of advanced major weapons, although it has done well in producing missiles, munitions, and smaller weapons systems. Iran has also only had sporadic access to Russian arms and no recent access to advanced new combat aircraft, tanks, major combat ships other than three submarines.

'From 1980 to the present, Iran has faced massive new U.S. and European arms transfers to the Southern Arab Gulf states.'

The Iranian Missile Threat
 
Iran has accelerated enrichment of uranium, IAEA says - Reuters
According to the IAEA, Iran has carried out its threat and is increasing its production of enriched uranium. Currently, it's unclear when they will reach the agreed limits:
IAEA chief Yukiya Amano, whose agency is responsible for monitoring Iranian compliance with the nuclear deal, said Iran was now producing more enriched uranium than before, but it was not clear when it might reach stockpile limits set in the pact.

“Yes, (the) production rate is increasing,” he told a news conference when asked if enriched uranium production had accelerated since the agency’s last quarterly report, which found Iran compliant with the nuclear deal as of May 20. He declined to say how much it had increased by.
According to Amano, he is worried about the increased tension over the nuclear issue and hopes ways can be found to reduce the current tensions through dialogue: :
IAEA chief Amano said he was “worried about increasing tensions over the Iranian nuclear issue”. He hoped “that ways can be found to reduce the current tensions through dialogue. It is essential that Iran fully implements its nuclear-related commitments” under the deal.
 
Japanese PM Abe visited Iran on Wednesday and warned about the potential for an "accidental conflict" between Iran and the US.
www.cbc.ca/news/world/japan-shinzo-abe-in-tehran-warns-us-iran-possible-conflict-1.5172405?cmp=rss
"There is possibility of an accidental conflict and a military conflict should be prevented at all costs," Abe said.
Abe's trip is apparently intended to help de-escalate the current crisis.
Abe's trip is the highest-level effort yet to de-escalate the crisis as Tehran appears poised to break the 2015 nuclear deal it struck with world powers, an accord that the Trump administration pulled out of last year. It's also the first visit of a sitting Japanese premier in the 40 years since the Islamic Revolution.
Abe has apparently met with the Iranian president Rouhani, and will meet "Supreme Leader" Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Thursday.
Abe's plane landed at Tehran's Mehrabad International Airport on Wednesday afternoon where he was greeted by Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. He immediately met Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and will see Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Thursday.
 
Abe has been rebuffed both actualy and symbolicaly. Iran is refusing to discuss talks with the US and it was a Japanese tanker that had a limpet mine attached to it.

Iran counts heavily on it’s asymetric and deniable attacks. It did however come unstuck when it was proved to be sowing mines in the Gulf and reaped a mini whirlwind then.
Operation Praying Mantis – 25 Years Later - Navy Live

The US has now got video of Iranian craft removing an unexploded limpet mine.
Gulf of Oman tanker attack: US releases video it claims shows Iran removing unexploded mine - CNNPolitics

Iran is a great believer in its invulnerability through size, and ability to carry out terror attacks within the US that would move US public opinion against a war with Iran. It’s cold blooded ruthlesness and lack of regard for world wide social norms do indeed make it a dangerous enemy but it would do well to ponder how US public opinion was both enraged and united by 9/11.

Any country that is willing to use it’s own children as mine clearing fodder simply demonstrates it’s lack of basic humanity, and it’s complete lack of suitability to be armed with weapons of mass destruction.
The horrifying way Iran cleared mines in the Iran-Iraq War

While there remains disagreement between Europe and the US on ways to deal with Iran, there is credible evidence that Iran has not fully complied with areas of the agreement that had been negotiated.
Iran can’t be trusted on nuclear agreement

In the same way that going soft on hardened criminals only encourages them, Iran’s behaviour with regard to its export of, and support for terrorism and terrorist groups would seem to indicate that going soft on it’s behaviour is not the way to deal with it, and will simply store up bigger problems in the future. Much the same way that dealing with N Korea has produced litttle change in it’s less than palatable behaviour, and with whom Iran has been a nuclear ‘buddy’.

There are countries and leaders who are in need of checking, sanctioning, and if neccessary confronting. Not to do so has in the past led to Global War.

Unfortunately we are now in the age where even these preliminary actions can trigger catastrophic events, which does not mean that they should simply be abandoned for endless placation.
 
A potentially serious escalation by the Iranians with the shooting down of a US Triton/Global Hawk.
Iran shoots down US drone aircraft - CNN

This is a top of the range multi-million dollar asset that is unlikely to be lightly dismissed.

If, as the US claims, it was in International airspace, then the Iranian’s will be facing some form of consequence. The US has never backed down from a fight and is very unlikely to do so at this stage.

They do not want war, despite the trolling and usual anti-Trump ranters, and one serious lesson that many either disagree with, or simply do not comprehend, is that backing away from, or placation, in a dangerous situation serves only to enco
urage further aggression/attack/predation.

There will definitely be some form of measured response/action to serve Iran notice that it will be held responsible by the US, if by no-one else. Count on it.
 
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A potentially serious escalation by the Iranians with the shooting down of a US Triton/Global Hawk.

This is a top of the range multi-million dollar asset that is unlikely to be lightly dismissed.

If, as the US claims, it was in International airspace, then the Iranian’s will be facing some form of consequence. The US has never backed down from a fight and is very unlikely to do so at this stage.
Didn't Jimmy Carter seriously back down when the Iranians invaded the US embassy and held all the US diplomats hostage for months?
 
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There were limited options with hostages lives at stake.
I am well aware of that but a back down is a back down and that was the back down of the century with precious little retribution after the hostages were released..
 
I am well aware of that but a back down is a back down and that was the back down of the century with precious little retribution after the hostages were released..
...which is why hostage taking has become a key element in Hezbollah/ Iranian policy ever since.
It has been proven to work.
Fortunately for the tanker crews, half were rescued by the US, and most of the others were from Russia.
Even the Iranians aren't stupid enough to piss off one of their main allies. Usually.
 
I am well aware of that but a back down is a back down and that was the back down of the century with precious little retribution after the hostages were released..
The retribution has been the complete lack of diplomatic representation, the witholding of Iranian funds, the present state of hostilities. How you can fail to miss this as consequential ‘retribution’ or result of that is interesting.
 
The retribution has been the complete lack of diplomatic representation, the witholding of Iranian funds, the present state of hostilities. How you can fail to miss this as consequential ‘retribution’ or result of that is interesting.
Sanctions maybe but the Iranian regime has been allowed to continue business as usual ever since and that constitutes a back down. The US let the Iranian regime s***w it in the *ss and the world has been paying for it ever since.
And while we are about it - Obama performed a mahoosive back down in the face of the Syrian regime's use of chemical weapons.
 
the Iranian regime has been allowed to continue business as usual ever since and that constitutes a back down. The US let the Iranian regime s***w it in the *ss and the world has been paying for it ever since.
And while we are about it - Obama performed a mahoosive back down in the face of the Syrian regime's use of chemical weapons.
Iran has not been allowed to continue business, which has led to the present situation as they grow desperate. They are trying to provoke and international situation where the International community holds back the US and gives in to them.

Obama did back down and that in some eyes has been a massive mistake, which is belatedly being rectified. It was a back down that will cost/is costing right now. Which is why it is likely with this administration they will not be allowed to get away with it.

Hormozgan province is an area of particular interest at this present time where US aerial surveillance aircraft and in particular unmanned ones are monitoring Iranian military activities, to monitor communications, and update the status of Iran's electronic order of battle.

Right now, in light of the recent tanker attacks, these flights are crucial in providing real-time strategic and tactical intelligence along with evidence of Iran's possible involvement in the mining of the ships.

There has already been embarrassing information provided that strongly implicates the IRG and it is therefor reasonable to assume Iran would be highly likely to try and blind any further US surveillance.

If they have conducted this in international airspace they will have seriously overstepped the mark and it is likely that there will be consequences to follow.
Iran says it's 'ready for war' after US military confirms it shot down American drone

The Iranian’s will certainly be very ready to provoke war...and... are depending on the International community to restrain the US.
 
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