Iran under Mousavi - what changes for the West?

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by Alsacien, Jun 10, 2009.

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  1. Alsacien

    Alsacien LE Moderator

    Polls are indicating Mousavi could better Imadinnerjacket at the next elections in Iran, which looks like good news.

    I'm wondering how the relationship with Iraq will go, and the implications for the west.
    I am also wondering about Israel, as Mousavi has condemned the killing of Jews in the Holocaust, a different view than the one expressed by Ahmadinejad.
    He states that he would like to talk with Obama too.
  2. BiscuitsAB

    BiscuitsAB LE Moderator

    Dead inside two weeks!
  3. Alsacien

    Alsacien LE Moderator

    As Churchill said, "I suppose I am an optimist - I don't see much point in being anything else".
  4. I think not. (Unless you mean it's the US who will bump him off.)

    Mousavi would not be allowed to stand as a candidate were he unacceptable to the religious establishment that stand in the background. Just as Ahmadinejad was put forward as he captured the public mood of defiance to the US in the wake of the frankly stupid policies of the last US administration, so Mousavi captures the new mood post-Obama.

    If the US has any sense they will jump at the chance to get Iran on board; they've already wasted one chance post-9/11.
  5. Alsacien

    Alsacien LE Moderator

    I think that is a given.
    What I was wondering, is exactly how much of an agent provocateur, financier and general anti-western influencer Iran has been in the background all these years. Will we see significant changes?
  6. BuggerAll

    BuggerAll LE Book Reviewer Kit Reviewer

    One can only hope. Not just for our sake but also for the sake of the people who live in Iran (and in Iraq)
  7. I hope to God and back that Obama takes any opportunity he gets to get iran onside. If there's a single majority-Muslim country in the middle east whose people have a broadly similar outlook to our own then it's Iran.

    Why the Hell they're our 'enemies' and Saudi our 'friends' I'll never know, but I hope that whoever's responsible enjoys their eternity hot and full of torment.
  8. BuggerAll

    BuggerAll LE Book Reviewer Kit Reviewer

    Second that. Just shows you how religion can screw you up.
  9. I think the answer to that is who has the most oil. Also, I remember watching a program "Why we fight" and immediately after the attacks on the world trade centres there was a mass candle lit vigil in Tehran for the victims. Only for the shaved cluless chimp GWB to declare the place amongst the "axis of evil". Very clever.
  10. It's a bit like President Barry, different rhetoric, same policy direction.

    Course it ain't going to happen unless Ali Khamenei snaps his fingers. The Iranian system is much more representative than most countries in the region but their elections are charades. Khamenei has been supportive of Mr Dinner Jacket. Of course this means little in the devious world of Persian power politics. These guys make Karl Rove and New Labor look open handed.

    Qom is doing very nicely thanks to Bush. These are not unsteady men on a two year electoral cycle, they think in decades. Now may not be the moment for a grand bargain. They've milked the misstep in Iraq well, but the Pashtun war may yet be more profitable. Saudi gold shoring up of the dike in Lebanon will hardly panic the Mullahs. Demographics aside the dumb Israelis are sure to bomb HA into a majority at some point. Team Bibi also look set to collide with DC's pressing interests regardless. The Iranians will also have nukes not to take off the table soon. Frankly I'd wait a bit, but then I'm a zero sum game ******** rather than a rationally calculating Mullah.

    If Khamenei shuffles obnoxious Ahmedinijab out having served his provocative purpose and wheels on a more subtle bugger like the bland mumbling Mousavi he may just have decided to play vain Barry at his own slippery game. It could be a good way to buy time and sow division.