iran to have a Nuke in 16 Days???

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by mr_angry, Apr 13, 2006.

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  1. Does this sound familiar......

    Iran Could Produce Nuclear Bomb in 16 Days, U.S. Says (Update2)
    April 12 (Bloomberg) -- Iran, defying United Nations Security Council demands to halt its nuclear program, may be capable of making a nuclear bomb within 16 days, a U.S. State Department official said.

    Iran will move to ``industrial scale'' uranium enrichment involving 54,000 centrifuges at its Natanz plant, the Associated Press quoted deputy nuclear chief Mohammad Saeedi as telling state-run television today.

    ``Using those 50,000 centrifuges they could produce enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon in 16 days,'' Stephen Rademaker, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for International Security and Nonproliferation, told reporters today in Moscow.

    Rademaker was reacting to a statement by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who said yesterday the country had succeeded in enriching uranium on a small scale for the first time, using 164 centrifuges. That announcement defies demands by the UN Security Council that Iran shut down its nuclear program this month.

    The U.S. fears Iran is pursuing a nuclear program to make weapons, while Iran says it is intent on purely civilian purposes, to provide energy. Saeedi said 54,000 centrifuges will be able to enrich uranium to provide fuel for a 1,000-megawat nuclear power plant similar to the one Russia is finishing in southern Iran, AP reported.

    ``It was a deeply disappointing announcement,'' Rademaker said of Ahmadinejad's statement.

    Weapons-Grade Uranium

    Rademaker said the technology to enrich uranium to a low level could also be used to make weapons-grade uranium, saying that it would take a little over 13 years to produce enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon with the 164 centrifuges currently in use. The process involves placing uranium hexafluoride gas in a series of rotating drums or cylinders known as centrifuges that run at high speeds to extract weapons grade uranium.

    Iran has informed the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency that it plans to construct 3,000 centrifuges at Natanz next year, Rademaker said.

    ``We calculate that a 3,000-machine cascade could produce enough uranium to build a nuclear weapon within 271 days,'' he said.

    While the U.S. has concerns over Iran's nuclear program, Rademaker said ``there certainly has been no decision on the part of my government'' to use force if Iran refuses to obey the UN Security Council demand that it shuts down its nuclear program.

    Rademaker is in Moscow for a meeting of his counterparts from the Group of Eight wealthy industrialized countries. Russia chairs the G-8 this year.

    China is concerned about Iran's decision to accelerate uranium enrichment and wants the government in Tehran to heed international criticism of the move, Wang Guangya, China's ambassador to the United Nations said.
  2. Yeah right......and there's still WMD in Iraq to find......
  3. If Iran can build an industrial facility comprising 54000 centrifuges (centrifugi? :? ) in 16 days, then they should also be able to recreate the palace of Versailles, on Mars, by the middle of June.
  4. a little nuclear "accident" couldbe arranged to derail the whole thing :wink:
  5. A little nuclear accident could cause quite an upset reaction that would result in a level of retaliation I would rather not see........
  6. Ah you just know something is going to happen soonish.
  7. Yes indeedeee, my moneys on the Red Sea Pedestrians performing one of their famous 'fcuk the world and its opinions' moments and doing something radical...... "watch my trace"......
  8. Surely not a clear air corridor across Iraq for a flight of bombers with those charming "Star of David" markings on them?

    Wait out, and if you're in MND SE get your head down...
  9. Why do you reckon that is the military way for the IDF to carry out a strike??
  10. Er, because everybody already hates the Israelis, and they have the most at stake? after all, they are the most likely target of any Iranian-controlled nuke.

    Alright, everybody already hates the yanks too, but I'd still put money on the IDF bombing f*ck out of the Iranian Nukuler "Research facilities" some time soon.
  11. To clarify - I was not asking why Israel may strike Iran but why it is thought that an IAF strike is the way to go.
  12. Ahh the sword of Gideon...again :)

    Having read throught the first post, I have to agree that it does all aound very familiar. Yes Bush is itching for any excuse, TCB will of course do as he is told and send more troops...unless Bush decides to press the big red button first...

    Am I being cynical? How much longer are people going to allow Bush to be a prat? Will he be allowed to start, yet another illegal war? Where does this leave Syria??

    So many questions, but surely enough is enough!!
  13. Yep, the IDF will go first they will make a one way machine, proberly bail out because tanker support would be a nightmare over Iranian airspace.
  14. It's not that "an IAF strike is the way to go", the Israelis have a habit where they eliminate any perceived threat to their country with preemptive strikes.

    Read this book:

  15. Although the definitive history of the hydrogen bomb states (worringly) that "every country that has attempted to make a [atomic] bomb has succeeded", they still have unbelievable technical and engineering issues to overcome. The centrifuge cascade is required to turn uranium from U238 into U235. They can then stick that into a bomb for a Hiroshima style device or into a Fast Breeder Reactor (FBR) and produce plutonium for a Nagasaki flavour bucket o'sunshine. These centrifuges and FBRs produce their end products literally an atom at a time. It takes a long time (or premier division industrial effort along the lines of the Manhattan project) to produce the 4-5kg of plutonium required for a modest (100kt bomb). The you need to develop the implosion techniques required to symmetrically assemble a critical mass (assuming plutonium) - oh and put a high neutron emitter initiator (apparently as difficult as the rest of the bomb itself) in the middle of it all.

    The physics are well understood, but one can't forget that they have to overcome the technical side of things. It took the soviets 6 or 7 years to build their first using their entire industrial might and spies buried deep inside Los Alamos. Thermonuclear (ie H-Bombs) are significantly more difficult again. Then you have to deliver it using a missile of semi-decent reliability.

    Why not just sail a dirty bomb up the port of london in a ship and detonate that? harder to trace/intercept and retaliate to. So I think that this iranian effort is probably genuine, but let's not take our eye off the ball that it could be a feint.