Iran, the original kick-off, kicking off again?

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by TheIronDuke, Feb 14, 2011.

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  1. TheIronDuke

    TheIronDuke LE Book Reviewer

    Iran. Arguably the start of it all. If Reza Shah hadnt been a tit and allowed the revolution which gave the world the Wonder that was Khomeini, would Russia have invaded Afghanistan and set off the chain of events we know and love today? Dunno. History will tell.

    But it can be argued that the Iranian demos in 1999 sparked the popular unrest in Tunisia, Egypt and all through the Arab world. And despite the best efforts today of riot cops and Basij (spookily reminiscent of Savak) thousands of protestors out in the streets today and tonight.

    The US State Dept is all over social media posting in Farsi - given their wonderful track record of intervention in that part of the world, that will get interesting.

    Kaleme is up and down, but currently posting pics of the demos and theres Youtube clips coming out.

    If Iran does kick off this time, it has to go the way of a secular democracy? Which could be good news all ends and sides.

    From my lips to Gods ear, but given the history of that part of the world, I aint holding my breath.
     
  2. In fairness, the Shah was a real bastard - he just happened to be our bastard. People like that generally tend to get their comuppence eventually - indeed, one or two exceedingly oil rich middle eastern kingdoms aside, are there any dictatorships that the west supported during the cold war that are still in power?
     
  3. IMHO, the danger is that if the protests look like they may become a serious threat, Imadinnerjacket may try to unite his people with a nice, juicy war against the Great Satan or the Great Satan's Bezzer. Clinton publicly supporting the protesters, while politically understandable, increases the risk of being drawn in.

    At which point we'd all better dig out the Factor 50,000 sunblock and industrial strength sunglasses...
     
  4. one can only hope.
    when i drove through the country last august i can only speak well of Iranies. the ones i spoke to were all very pro west, didn't care about headscarfs, liked a (black market) drink and hated their leaders. they didn't seem like the people were told they're supposed to be at all.
     
  5. Auld-Yin

    Auld-Yin LE Reviewer Book Reviewer Reviews Editor

    The USA? :) ...................
     
  6. TheIronDuke

    TheIronDuke LE Book Reviewer

    This is what resonates. I havent been back since the Shah was deposed, but what you wrote was exactly my experience way back then. Dead canny people who hated the Savak (secret police) and the corrupt elite that surrounded the Shah. There was no groundswell of Islamic fundamentalism, although Mashad was a bit hairy. And if anyone else remembers the revolution, it happened very fast leaving most of us quoting the Mayor of Hiroshima with "WTF was THAT?"

    Dinnerjacket has far greater freedom to get heavy than Mubarak had, and no doubt he will. But dare we hope?
     
  7. I remember watching the series "Holidays in the Axis of Evil" with Ben Anderson.

    The majority of Iranians came across as being intelligent and warm folk. Hopefully in time they will be able to free themselves of the ruling idiots but I very much doubt they will leave without blood being spilt.

    As the king of sheds says, we can but hope.
     
  8. How exactly would he go about doing that though? I mean lets face it all throughout the 'Insurgency War' in Iraq he was undoubtedly supplying weapons and manpower, and probably is in Afghanistan too. But short of sending an Armada around to storm up the beaches of Brighton whats he going to do? Invade Afghanistan to have a go at the Great Satan's (and Satan's little wizard's) forces based their?

    And where would the 'sunshine factor 50,000' weapons be used and by whom? I wasnt aware than Dinnerjacket had any yet (Oh Hang on are then any of George Dubya's Advisors investigating this?) and if he did have nuclear stock, has he got ICBM capability? or once again would ha just Nuke Afghanistan?
     
  9. 1)Send a few hundred Revolutionary Guards to fight in Afghanistan. In full uniform. When some are captured or killed, the Yanks will have an excuse to launch Gulf War III: Shit Just Got Real.

    2)If he has radioactive material, then he has the capability to build a Dirty Bomb. And you don't have to deliver them by ICBM; stick it on a ship and you could sail it into any number of sexy targets. Care to speculate on the reaction of the Red Sea Pedestrians should a Dirty Bomb explode in Tel Aviv harbour? Frankly, I'm surprised it has'nt been done before.
     
  10. As for the first, well he would have to send in full Air and Armour support if he openly sent troops in, otherwise once someone wised up to their presence they wouldnt be breathing for much longer, unless of course they were hidden by the Talib, but how well can you hide a few hundred uniformed troops?

    A dirty Bomb in Tel Aviv Harbour, once attributed to Iran would have graver consequences for Iran than for anyone else I reckon. Even the smallest Tactical Nuke should be able to wipe Tehran off the map!
     
  11. You've been reading too much Greenpeace propaganda. Tehran is roughly the same size as London. A small tac nuc wouldn't manage to cause notable civic improvements in Brent ...
     
  12. Would anyone notice ?
     
  13. You're making the classic mistake of applying logic to fanatics; of course the RG would be slaughtered - that's the point. He would'nt be trying to start a war he can win in any normal military sense, although an all-out war on Iran would be a logistical nightmare. If his aim is to unite his people against a common enemy, he wins just by starting the war.

    As for the IDF delivering Instant Sunshine in response to a Dirty Bomb attack - this is the Samson Option; Immerdinjhad realising that he is about to lose control of Iran and, unlike Mubarak, not willing to go gentle into that good night. So he brings down the Temple on everyone's heads.
     
  14. and you're making the classic mistake of dreaming up Tom Clancy scenarios.
     
  15. The problem for him would be that he would become the common enemy. His generals are pragmatic enough to realise they would be slaughtered in a conventional conflict and are more likely to boot him out and put one of his cronies in charge to appease the states. That and the fact that those couple of hundred troops he sacrifice's dont grow on trees, they'll have families that wont be too chuffed about little Abdul being fed into the meatgrinder to start an unwinnable war against a nuclear power.