Iran stockpiling food

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by IndependentBoffin, Apr 12, 2012.

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  1. Exclusive - Iran poised to start big feed grain imports | Reuters

    It seems the Iranian government has concluded that food security is critical at a time of increasing international pressure and isolation.

    I presume the saboteurs responsible for offing key Iranian figures and (if so) a missile base must also come to the same conclusion that Iranian food stockpiles are a crucial pillar that is propping the regime up. If the food stocks were somehow contaminated or destroyed, the pressure on the Iranian government to capitulate to international demands would start becoming unbearable.

    Obviously, food stockpiles are also crucial to undertaking war - regardless of which side starts it first.
  2. Tricky one this. The forecast for the harvest this year is good to above average, but there are rumours that Pakistan is acting as a proxy buyer, then bartering across the border. So, if the harvest is going to be good, why stockpile?
    I suspect for two reasons-Reserves are probably low, due to drought and disease over the last couple of years, but I think a lot of it comes down to the subsidies the Iranian government pays to the public.

    They recently did a big change that caused prices to rocket, and caused a lot of domestic complaint. With galloping inflation, too much cash chasing limited grain stocks, prices would escalate outside the budget of the poor. If the supply side increases, some of that inflationary pressure comes off. (It'll probably transfer to petrol, which for some reason Iran has a chronic shortage of.)

    Poisoning /infesting grain is a really illegal but above all, DUMB idea. Agri pests show no discrimination over national borders, and the last thing we want is a manufactured famine throughout Central Asia.
  3. Just trying to get into the minds of the saboteurs. Heeding international law seems to not rank highly on their list of priorities.
  4. Depends upon what you are trying to achieve surely?
  5. They better stockpile gasoline as they are a net importer.
  6. Wouldn't be surprised if most of the wheat is coming from Oz.
  7. Another act of senseless Iranian aggression, they'll be unsportingly building air raid shelters next.
    • Like Like x 2
  8. Are they good protection against instant glass production?
  9. Not enough refinery capacity.
  10. "International law"??????

    Is that the thing that the US/UK demands that everybody sticks too when preaching to the unwashed masses from the netherworld - but is happy to ignore or flout when it suits themselves?

    Is that the thing that legions of US (and UK to a lesser extent) 'conservative' bloggers claim doesn't exist?

    Which "international laws" have the Iranians not heeded recently?
  11. Indeed. ;)

    And such blatant acts of regional terrorism against their peace loving neighbours must be met with the most severe of collective international responses.

  12. (Sigh) At the moment there's a roughly 50/50 split through the ex-Soviet "Stan" republics who are wheat growing areas of the Caucasus. Some incline to the West, some to Russia, and a handful to whichever is the most powerful next door neighbour. All have fragile economies.

    The first nitwit to deliberately unleash something there will bring down the whole house of cards. And it won't be the Iranians infecting their own stock, so the finger will point at 1) the Joos 2) the USA.

    'Cos it won't be the Russians. They are currently alternating between profitable exports or net importers, depending on the harvest. They lost a lot of crop last year, so froze exports. Why would they risk their own export crop, or reduce the amount that would be on the world market if this years harvest fails? That would not only eat into their foreign exchange reserves, but destabilise their own southern flank.

    And the USA is a huge wheat exporter. So, is the world going to thank them for profiteering at their expense? No. The USA would probably find itself sending grain for free to affected areas just to keep them onside.

    So. The Joos? No one doubts its them with the motorbikes and sticky bombs, but its 'tolerable' violence. Most of the Arab world probably has a sneaking respect for the tidy way they do it. Unleashing famine across an area still struggling with the Arab Spring? Madness.

    And since Pakistan won't play, where do you think the logistics trail for all the troops in Afghan runs through? Yep. That's right. Through those Caucasian wheatfields...

    There's a big difference between flouting 'international law' by zapping a fine, upstanding member of the oppositions armed forces /political/scientific/religious establishment, and kicking away the economic foundations of an entire region. It's not just illegal. It's wildly disproportionate. And dumb.

    There's an ongoing natural pest problem with something called 'Wheat Rust Fungus' that's already been a significant problem in 2011. Just keeping the lid on that has been more than enough to worry about, let alone start something deliberately.
  13. No they're not.
  14. :)

    Over several threads on ARRSE, IndependentBoffin has repeatedly demonstrated a determination to propagate his biased (and myopic) agenda(s) rather than to present solid, coherent and credible analysis. :wink:
    • Like Like x 1
  15. Mea culpa!

    I'm biased for Jesus Christ! :)
    And my vision is myopic compared to God's :)

    1 Corinthians 1:27 "But God chose the foolish things of the world to shame the wise; God chose the weak things of the world to shame the strong."
    Anyday, I would rather be a usable fool in God's plans and hands, than a wise man left to my own strengths and agendas :)

    There are lots of other chemical agents the saboteurs can hypothetically use to contaminate grain that has no risk of spreading beyond its application point. Dimethylmercury is an interesting example. With its extreme toxicity, high vapour pressure and ability to permeate through many barrier materials - latex, PVC, neoprene, butyl rubber..., it would be an ideal candidate for rendering food stockpiles worthless. Contamination followed by a warning that the deed has been done would miminise casualties.

    (Of course I do not endorse attacking a nation's food supply)