Iran riots- latest

#2
I hope all the foreign interference in Iranian matters like their quest for nukes etc can stop. Dont give the current regime any excuse to unite the country in any form of anti US/Israel/Western feeling. In fact don't give them any excuse to look good. The normal Iranians are more than capable of a bit of regime change from within.

I'd imagine when it comes down to it the revolutionary guard will be more interested in securing the cash from the many lucrative little sidelines that they've got going than propping up the current regime.
 
#3
wouldnt it be horrible if lots of western weapons turned up in the oppositions hands, would be terribly ironic given who iran supplies
 
#4
Listening to Rock the Casbah right now
 
#5
It's all the British Ambassadors fault. Mr. Roodsaz of Iranian intelligence told me so. Mind you he also told me he had won gold at the last olympics (or the one before) for rifle shooting. I eventualy got to see his rifle. It was a highly accurate competition air rifle, not what he led me to believe. Iran and its nutters in charge need sorting out.
 
#6
I do hope the west seeks no involvement in this, as things do tend to go bum up when they do......Regime change gets 'nil point' on their collective CV's.

Iranians have a good track record of keeping govts on their toes. They sacked the last 1 in 79, and you never know they might just do the same again. I hope for their sake its an 'in house' job, with no foreign hangers on.
 
#8
Regime change through 5th column is much more preferable than invasion and full on conflict.

Nothing wrong, IMO, in fanning the flames of discontent.
 
#9
Best case scenario: regime from inside the country. A secular Iran.

Worst case: the ruling class try to unite Iran by provoking a confrontation with Isreal etc. Or even worse, decide that if they can't rule Iran, nobody can. And start chucking glow-in-the-dark missile at Tel Aviv... 8O
 
#10
I was about to post something along the lines of "we're all going to die", but this is probably pretty good press for the opposition. I don't think Johnny Iranian's going to be best impressed with the same sort of gun barrel politics they got from the Shah.

It'd be pretty spectacular for the Middle East to have this sort of think work for once, especially with little Western involvement.
 
#11
I don't know if we're going to get a 1979 redux , or even something quite as serious as the Romanian unpleasantness.

My feeling is if discontent grows, the Government will try to reach an accomodation with the opposition , before there's a run on piano wire and empty lamposts are at a premium.

However, the deciding factor is the Revolutionary Guard , and whether the fervour for change from within for a more secular society , will have them moving to safeguard their considerable financial interests inside Iran.

That said, if they see a chance to come in from the cold, for greater enrichment (see what I did there?) then I think the RG could well tip the balance , and if it comes, it will be very quick indeed.
 
#12
I think that Iran is in a state of flux and turmoil. A gentle tip in the right direction might be enough.

Just think, if we could have Tianamen Square all over again, who knows what the world order might look like today?
 
#13
the_guru said:
I think that Iran is in a state of flux and turmoil. A gentle tip in the right direction might be enough.

Just think, if we could have Tianamen Square all over again, who knows what the world order might look like today?
As long as WE DON'T GET CAUGHT.

Because the consquences of the Iranian leadership being able to PROVE the West is attempting Regimen Change does not bear thinking of. 8O
 
#14
You underestimate the abilities of our Intelligence Services.

:)
 
#15
the_guru said:
Just think, if we could have Tianamen Square all over again, who knows what the world order might look like today?
We won't. The memories (collective and personal) of the Cultural Revolution are no longer strong enough to scare the CCP into that kind of reaction.

We might have a Persian version, it depends on how much each side talks the other into a corner. If there's a chance for the RG to come out with their fortunes intact, we might see a Velvet Revolution-style handover occur relatively peacefully.

One thing's for sure: it will be a hell of a lot harder to impose the kind of sanctions on a post-crackdown Iran that we did on PRC after 1989 - and look at how well those lasted in the face of a cheap manufacturing base. What price international condemnation if it affects the market price of oil?
 
#16
In seriousness, wouldn't aiding the opposition and any fifth column type activities just give the regime more support? It can't be seen as a Western invasion by proxy. It didn't work for long enough last time.
 
#17
Getting very nasty in the urban areas, and a nephew of the main opposition leader has been killed.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/8431523.stm

The problem for the Iranian Government is that there is still the Ashura festival of mourning going on, which always raises tension, and that there are now lots of people with religious reasons to get out on the streets, whether crowds have been officially banned or not.

Whatever the outcome, I think it would be very unwise for any external influence to be applied. The Iranians have already shown that they can do regime change all by themselves, thanks very much, and to me this is starting to look like 1979 all over again. Unlike then, there isn't an opposition figure on a par with Ayatollah Khomeini for the opposition to form around. In that respect, it's more like the Romanian insurrection, starting at grass roots level.
 
#18
HectortheInspector said:
Getting very nasty in the urban areas, and a nephew of the main opposition leader has been killed.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/8431523.stm

The problem for the Iranian Government is that there is still the Ashura festival of mourning going on, which always raises tension, and that there are now lots of people with religious reasons to get out on the streets, whether crowds have been officially banned or not.

Whatever the outcome, I think it would be very unwise for any external influence to be applied. The Iranians have already shown that they can do regime change all by themselves, thanks very much, and to me this is starting to look like 1979 all over again. Unlike then, there isn't an opposition figure on a par with Ayatollah Khomeini for the opposition to form around. In that respect, it's more like the Romanian insurrection, starting at grass roots level.
But was there a Romanian equivelent to the Revolutionaty Guard? It seems to me that it will boil down to how much the RG want the present regime to stay in power. If they are determined to halt the insurrection no matter what the cost, they probably have the firepower to do so.
 
#19
Werewolf said:
HectortheInspector said:
Getting very nasty in the urban areas, and a nephew of the main opposition leader has been killed.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/8431523.stm

The problem for the Iranian Government is that there is still the Ashura festival of mourning going on, which always raises tension, and that there are now lots of people with religious reasons to get out on the streets, whether crowds have been officially banned or not.

Whatever the outcome, I think it would be very unwise for any external influence to be applied. The Iranians have already shown that they can do regime change all by themselves, thanks very much, and to me this is starting to look like 1979 all over again. Unlike then, there isn't an opposition figure on a par with Ayatollah Khomeini for the opposition to form around. In that respect, it's more like the Romanian insurrection, starting at grass roots level.
But was there a Romanian equivelent to the Revolutionaty Guard? It seems to me that it will boil down to how much the RG want the present regime to stay in power. If they are determined to halt the insurrection no matter what the cost, they probably have the firepower to do so.
Romania had a huge IS service, the Securitate, but the Regular Army finally sided with the protestors. In Iran, the RG is more like the German Waffen SS, better equipped, and more Party loyalist, than the Regulars. Also, rather like the Chinese PLA, the Iranian RG is heavily involved in the civilian business sector, with many employees. Basically, if it kicks off, it will be very bloody, and there is no guarantee that the uprising would succeed. Whether that would be a good thing for Iran or the world is a very difficult thing to judge, but personally I wouldn't want to be living there at the time.
 
#20
Werewolf said:
But was there a Romanian equivelent to the Revolutionaty Guard? It seems to me that it will boil down to how much the RG want the present regime to stay in power. If they are determined to halt the insurrection no matter what the cost, they probably have the firepower to do so.
The Ceausescus had the Securitate, who I suppose could be cast in the same role as the IRG. The tipping point was when the Romanian Army went over the the revolutionaries - after that, game over.

I don't suppose the Iranian Army have any deep love of the RG since those lads have been plucking all the sweetest peaches from the corruption tree and leaving little left for the hard-working Generals. If the IA promised to stay neutral or even to prevent the IRG deploying against the populace, things would get rather interesting but unfortunately, as stated earlier, there's a lack of a single leader-figure amongst the opposition to make any kind of credible promises to the army.
 

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