Iran Propaganda.... it's Deja vu all over again

Guess what - a 'Formmer General' of the Republican guard (unidentified, natch), has stated that there's splits in the regime, Republican Guards ready to overthrow their leaders, that there's 'definitely' a nuclear weapons programme, Russia and China are only supporting Iran through bribery, and that Iranian armed resistance would crumble in a day in any clash with the West.

This doesn't half remind me of some of the blatantly fabricated stuff that came out about Iraq... the people want democracy and are ready to rebel, yellowcake, WMDs, Saddam has terrifying weapons but his army would crumble in minutes etc etc.

Ex-Republican Guards general reveals dissent within elite Iranian force | World news | The Guardian
Strange that its in the Guardian, unless they are hoping Israel gets a good clobbering in the process
I'm not saying the Guardian is consciously assisting, merely that these stories are being put out there.

Purely by coincidence, another story of how the Evil Mullahs are Bent on Nuclear War but There's Still Time To Stop Them, has just appeared the Telegraph. I also note that there is no detail, just 'we stopped them' but no idea what they were actually stopped from doing or how.

MI6 chief Sir John Sawers: 'We foiled Iranian nuclear weapons bid' - Telegraph


Book Reviewer
There have been a number of defectors from the Sepāh ( سپاه پاسداران انقلاب اسلامی) over the years who have publicly detailed the infighting between various camps and the attempts to acquire serious armaments inclusive of chemical and nuclear capabilities. The latter issues have normally been identified as coming out of the Iraq-Iran war and the use of chemical agents by Iraq against Iranian personnel and targets and the later threat of potential nuclear weapons. I think that most reasonable people would agree that chemical agents have been acquired by Iran, while there is disagreement on the level of nuclear weapon capability.

Saddam's insistence that he had acquired some level of advanced weaponry, not to mention his penchant for hiring eccentric weapons systems design engineers and deploying chemical agents against both civilian and military targets made him an easy candidate for removal by the US with what was widespread understanding if not complete approval. In a very real sense he provided all the plausibility that was needed for an assisted suicide.

The ruthless removal of political opponents within Iran's current ruling regime is legendary. We tend to forget that some of the people that are hailed as moderates by the Guardian and others were actively and personally engaged in the torture and murder of innocents of all ages. Frankly, I have always found it difficult to assign the sobriquet of moderate to people who directly sanctioned the torture and rape of sub-teenage girls to both intimidate the larger community and to play upon the belief that the victims would thereby be denied access to heaven due to impurity.

We also tend to forget that the original successor for the Ayatollah Khomeini, Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri, was removed because he had the temerity to condemn these activities. The only people who remained intact followed the party line very closely indeed.

The likelihood of a successful uprising against the regime is extremely unlikely. The first thing that they did after the removal of the Shah was to annihilate the other members of the umbrella coalition that had lead to his ouster. They did this with a remarkable completeness both at home and very famously abroad. Something that all of us who were adults in the 1980's should remember only too well. Rather than dismantling SAVAK (سازِمانِ اطلاعات وَ امنیَتِ کِشوَر) they subsumed it and expanded its reach and ruthlessness. This was a remarkable feat given its high level of both prior to the take over.

The current regime killed minimally 25,000 of their own citizens to secure sole power (inclusive of the 1988 massacres), some would estimate a similar number to maintain power to this date and they are quite capable of spending the same amount or greater to continue into the future. The Chain Murders of the 1990's put the next generation of intellectuals on notice that they were just as likely to die as any one else.

The people may be tired. They may wish to normalise relations. But the yoke has not loosened enough to make their desires meaningful. Anyone who suggests differently should probably reconsider their data.
Just before the last elections in Iran I had dinner at a buffet restaurant in Tehran with my driver. There was a white haired elderly bloke eating at the next table, whom my driver informed me was the head of Irans nuclear research program. Just for a moment I imagined myself leaping across his table and ripping his throat out with a blunt restaurant knife.

Sanity prevailed, as I had no wish to be strung up publicly from a crane in the street. But I had the chance.

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