Iran offers to help in Iraq

#1
The BEEB world service TV has just stated that the Iranian PM (A-D) has Offered to help with the Internal Security situation in Bagdhad.
john
My my, bet they could stop 99% of the insurgency 'overnight'.
 
#4
I'm sure the Iranians could. Likewise the Syrians.

In ODS, a friend of mine was a vehicle cmdr on a USMC LAV. They laagered for the night right next door to a Syrian unit. My friend heard gunshots during the night, coming from the Syrian pos. Observing through night vision goggles, he witnessed Iraqi POWs, lined up on their knees. Syrian officers walking down the rows, executing POWs with a pistol shot to the back of the head.

Neither the Syrians, nor the Iranians, nor Saddam, screw around.
 
#5
I thought that they were already 'helping'.

retread2
 
#7
I think Iran has already helped enough
 
#10
The most frightening words in the Middle East right now:

"Blessings be upon you my brother. I'm from the Iranian Government and I'm here to help"
 
#11
jonwilly said:
The BEEB world service TV has just stated that the Iranian PM (A-D) has Offered to help with the Internal Security situation in Bagdhad.
john
My my, bet they could stop 99% of the insurgency 'overnight'.
Not really. They could ( and do !) influence the Shia but they are hardly likely to be able to stop the Sunni. Takes two to Tango in a civil war or whatever we want to call this mess. I suppose they could end it quite quickly if given a free hand - but a lot of Sunni would be dead afterwards and it would end with an effective annexation of S Iraq to Iran. The Saudis might not be so chuffed, at least they will have some nice new Typhoons to defend their sand...

As a half-way house how would it be if I suggested that some covert discussion with Iran on future spheres of influence might pay dividends ?would I be going too far ? It would also be fun to see what the Turkish reaction would be to open discussion of increasing Kurdish influence, hints of more than autonomy.... Mention the failure to allow passage of 4th ID and say "payback" in the same sentence?

A start would be if the US could get over the Iranians having bested them in the 80s. No-one likes a bad loser.
 
#12
The most frightening words in the Middle East right now:

"Blessings be upon you my brother. I'm from the Iranian Government and I'm here to help"

Oh dont be so melodramatic, Iran and Iraq have a very cordial relationship.

Why would Iran ally itself with the mainly Sunni insurgents, the most hardcore of which despise Shiites as apostates and collaborators?

Acts like the bombing of the Samarrah shrine caused massive outrage in Iran, not to mention fellow Shia bearing the vast brunt of terrorist atrocities.

Its simply not logical to claim that Iran has suddenly befriended these people who are causing the most mayhem in Iraq.

The only thing Sunni and Shia militant groups have in common is a varying level of antipathy towards Uncle Spam, as a quick look at Ogrish.com will confirm.
 
#13
Taz_786 said:
The most frightening words in the Middle East right now:

"Blessings be upon you my brother. I'm from the Iranian Government and I'm here to help"

Oh dont be so melodramatic, Iran and Iraq have a very cordial relationship.

Why would Iran ally itself with the mainly Sunni insurgents, the most hardcore of which despise Shiites as apostates and collaborators?

Acts like the bombing of the Samarrah shrine caused massive outrage in Iran, not to mention fellow Shia bearing the vast brunt of terrorist atrocities.

Its simply not logical to claim that Iran has suddenly befriended these people who are causing the most mayhem in Iraq.

The only thing Sunni and Shia militant groups have in common is a varying level of antipathy towards Uncle Spam, as a quick look at Ogrish.com will confirm.
Oh Lord Taz, but I was being ironic.

Iraq remaining in chaos suits Teheran...or did you think that they're shovelling all that 'equipment' across the border to Shia militias (some of which has been used to kill British troops as you must know) for the good of their own health?
 
#14
Of course they are taking advantage of the situation to increase their influence but please, who wouldnt in their situation?

I wonder if they would be as bothered if there werent US crosshairs on them?

Ultimately an unstable Iraq benefits noone, not Syria or Iran.
 
#15
Taz_786 said:
Of course they are taking advantage of the situation to increase their influence but please, who wouldnt in their situation?

I wonder if they would be as bothered if there werent US crosshairs on them?

Ultimately an unstable Iraq benefits noone, not Syria or Iran.
But what would a peaceful, democratic, economically thriving Iraq say to the ordinary people of Syria and Iran? That's why the Syrian and Iranian governments (or Iranian Revolutionary Guard) are happy to keep Iraq on the boil. Simplistic? Maybe.

retread2
 
#16
Taz_786 said:
Of course they are taking advantage of the situation to increase their influence but please, who wouldnt in their situation?

I wonder if they would be as bothered if there werent US crosshairs on them?

Ultimately an unstable Iraq benefits noone, not Syria or Iran.
Long term you're right. However, in the short term keeping US ground forces engaged in Iraq ensures that Iran cannot be attacked. Or if an attack is launched it's by means of air power, leaving Iran free to escalate matters and potentially do some real damage to the US economically and to their troops in Iraq. Either way, it's in Iran's interests to keep things going.

Medium term the Iranians will look to consolidate the Iraqi Shia as allies - formal or informal. Like it or not, they are seen as the good guys locally while we most certainly are not. At some point look for the Iraqi PM to ask all foreign forces to leave - and no bases left behind either.

The Sunnis will either keep their heads down or get them shot off, they're a minority now and can only lose if they kick off. The US cannot prevent the Shia from wiping them out should they choose to - sorry, engage in a number of targeted operations against known insurgent areas.

So long term I see a fairly hardline islamic state with close ties to Iran in the South (perhaps with the Sunnis included by default). AQ will be quietly and firmly shot or expelled - after all its Sunni Wahhabi apostasy as far as the Shia are concerned.

As for the Kurds, well, independent state or three way invasion (Turkey, Iraqi Sunni/Shia, Iran). Maybe both.
 

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