With a bit of luck it might not be his decision after the 5th of May.
But assuming he is still in Number 10...I'd figure about 6 months after that we'll be in Iran - and who said he'd bother with an excuse? He'd have 3 or 4 years to butter people back up and I didn't think he was planning to go to a 4th election anyway.
I, like most of you, think Blair is a w*nker who will follow Bush like the lost sheep he is but even he, with his ideas of Tony Infallability cannot even begin to consider Iran. He must know the public wouldn't stand for it and we don't have the military capability to carry it out at the present time. In fact, the US don't have the military capability to go into Iran unless all they intent to do is drop a bucket full of sunshine, which will not happen, even with a redneck on the button.
Stand by for another terrorist atrocity somewhere then. Nothing to stiffen the public spirit and bring out the warrior in him than seeing Johnny Foreigner blow up some innocent bystanders. Helps if said foreigner is arabic.
I can't see Iran in 05. Not even 06, as there is a substantial NATO committment to Afghanistan with a possible 5K Brit contingent freed up by withdrawls from Iraq. I'm sure once Afghanistan is calming down then the troops will be heading back to Iraq, and so on in a ping-pong manner...
I can see Dubya (either using the US or an Israeli proxy) bombing Iran - will we provide backup along the lines of air-air refuelling or airborne surveillance? And what happens when the bombing proves inconclusive?
Yes - if the Dear Leader's party is re-elected with a respectable majority he will see it as carte blanc to do as he pleases... Bliar out in 05!
indeed KGB , one thing tho , what are we going to do if it is discovered that Iran has developed Nuclear weapons ? a fundamentalist islamic country with nuclear missiles doesn't bear thinking about ?
they have got all the oil they can generate electricity easily from that , they don't need a nuclear power station, i personaly feel it is a smoke screen.
Then Saudi Arabia et al (Sunni) can say 'protect us from these evil Iranians' (there is no love lost between the Arabs and the Persians) and then Bush can say something along the lines of:
' My fellow Americans, today I have nukified the evil regime of those pesky Eyeranians. This act was in tokenisation of our long and trusting relationship with Sawdee Arabia, who asked us to respond with all violencification. This we have done, and today Tehran is a smoking hole. God bless you and God bless America.'