Indian Base in Central Asia

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by tomahawk6, Apr 26, 2006.

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  1. And to counter American influence too:

    As you say, all in all a welcome development.

    Which, of course, is one of the American government’s major reasons for taking an interest in the region. Unfortunately, it seems the Indians are following Bush’s lead in cozying up to that friendly tyrant Mr Karimov of Uzbekistan.
     
  2. anything to counter balance the chinese is good.
     
  3. India would be an ideal partner if something kicked off with China.
     
  4. The third largest active force in the world.

    Some obvious colonial influences if you browse the official website:

    http://indianarmy.nic.in/
     
  5. The largest Standing Volunteer force in the world and they have a TA as well!
     
  6. India is a strong regional power but imho will main a strong regional power and nothing more. The domestic and foreign problems that India suffers from will mean that it will never rise to a super power status. The Chinese will always be able to check the Indians - I know that some of this board think the Chinese growth is a transient phenomena but closer examination of the India shows that the Indian economy would suffer more from the effects of an 'economic catastrophe' of one kind or another. One just has to look at the growing differences between the sedentary populations and the rural populations. Quite frankly some parts of India are stuck in the mid 20th century - such differentiation can not continue without inflicting some serious political damage - regional identities are growing stronger and stronger. Secondly on a military and strategic front India is not that popular with its neighbours, since independence India's neighbours have always been worried by Indian imperialism. One only had to look at the last Saarc conference Nepal told India where to go. Military wise, India would never commit troops to a hostile anti-Chinese action. China is also building closer relations with Pakistan and the last thing the Indians or the Americans would want is a Chinese military presence in Pakistan, though if rumors are true the Chinese will have a listening post in Gwader. Finally oil wise, central Asia will be India's oil life line but a regular supply of oil will depend on better relations with Pakistan and China, especially if the pipe line is to come to fruition.
     
  7. Rayc

    Rayc RIP

    India's interest is in the CAR oil.

    India's interest in CAR is not to counter US interests. In fact, it is complementary.

    The nuclear deal with the US is indicative of the role India is to play (to mutual benefit) in US' geostrategic matrix.

    There are tyrants all over the world. Musharraf is also Bush's friend and so are many. UK played a major role in getting Musharraf's Pakistan back in the Commonwealth and his democracy is hardly a democracy. Kim is China's friend. Is the Saudi King any better? Therefore, while indeed one should avoid dealing with tyrants, but the sad part is that one can hardly avoid them. They are crawling all over the place!
     
  8. Rayc

    Rayc RIP

    The issue of superpower etc are just a figment of imagination of the West which has caught the fancy of some in India. It is just a feel good sentiment so as to counter China's aspirations to superpower status.

    The anomalies that you have enumerated about India and the economic divide between the rural and urban India is slowly vanishing. This is so since the PM's rural road scheme as it is called which is joining villages to commercial hubs wherein the market for village produce and industry is getting to be commercially lucrative if not viable. Still, it has a long way to go. Maybe another 5 to 7 years. In this context, China has a more serious problem than India since Communism ensured a "womb to the tomb Big Brother Looks After you" philosophy. That has crumbled and that is why in the last Chinese Communist Party Conference it was decided to have a socialist pattern for the rural area and capitalist pattern for the urban area. How these contradictions will be resolved is a moot point. India, on the other hand, did not have this luxury of womb to the tomb and so the shock of globalisation and consumerism is much less pronounced.

    The problem of India is not regional identities. It is vote bank politics and which is being shunned more and more resulting in some states (2 to be precise where there are regional parties in power; one of them in coalition with a national party). Vote bank politics means pandering to the communal and caste divides. As you maybe aware India has the second largest Moslem population in the world and they use this power to "blackmail" (for the want of a better word) the govt in granting them special favours that are singular for them. Either the govt panders or they lose votes and so they lose office! In fact, the Constitution was amended to please the Mullahs over the ruling of the Supreme Court that maintenance would have to be paid to Moslem women who are divorced by their husbands. Even now, the Muslim Personal Board and the various theological schools of Islam decide Moslem social code rulings and they are contrary to the ruling of the Supreme Court and sometimes obliquely the fundamental rights enshrined in the Constitution! This is not appreciated by the remainder of Indians. Likewise, there is this Other Backward Class (OBC) reservations that one Prime Minister craftily designed so that these OBCs voted for him and his party. It is a different matter that this crafty scoundrel was shown the door by the electorate. Even today because another Minister who had announced some more reservations (non competitive seats; 27%) for OBCs for joining Universities etc, there was huge demonstration against the Minister. More trouble is expected.

    If you observe the terrain on the Sino Indian border and the current troop deployment, it is well nigh impossible for either India or China to go to war excepting in some parts of Ladakh. Therefore, there is hardly any question of Indian embarking on war with China. China would be foolish to attempt any adventure. India has come a long way from 1962.

    It is no rumour. China has already underway in having a listening post in Gwadar to monitor US and Allies activities in the Middle East. It is in consonance with China's "String of Pearls" strategy which is to obviate the disadvantage of not having a blue water navy.
     
  9. Rayc, Stratfor at least agree with your view that China and India can have little effect on one another, due to the presence of the Himalayas/Tibet between them. Which begs the question, why exactly IS the US so keen to cosy up to India?
     
  10. Castlereagh
    Must agree with what you say.
    john
    China is the problem and Japan the dangerman when it militarizes.
     
  11. India has a larger standing army than any NATO country. India supplies the ground force and the US provides air support. India's Navy would be useful in helping to secure the Indian Ocean.
     
  12. Sorry to Nigle at you Tom6
    Any one think to ask the Indians if they would be happy to engage in ruinous war with China, simply to act as the United States' proxy?
    Surely the "primary foe" that India foresees is Pakistan? (I noted they made comment on their website to the forces deployed on their Western Borders)
    Of course India has a "sphere of Influence" that they take a diplomatic/ political interest in.

    I found Castlereigh's comments on future Indian economic development issues to be interesting too BTW.
     
  13. Rayc

    Rayc RIP

    The US industry and it military runs on oil (Defence Policy Guideline and National Energy Policy). Therefore, US Oil interests are in the Middle East. And hence its geostrategic interest.

    Towards this end, CAR (Central Asian Republics) has the world largest untapped hydrocarbon reserves. Whoever controls this oil will shape the geostrategic matrix of the world so to say since oil is at a premium. Oil has reached what is known as Peak Oil.

    US has to sanitise the Middle East from inimical interests. Hence, the interest in the CAR where the US has poured in $ so as to keep the countries away from their naturally ally, Russia. To shore up the same and exert influence, US has already obtained bases in the CAR. There were some problems of late and one of the countries wanted the US to quit but storm has blown over. The US is also covertly supporting the overthrow of pro Russian dictatorships that are there in the CAR as they have done in Ukraine and Georgia (the pipeline to Europe is running through these countries and so of geostrategic interest to the US). One pipeline is running through to Turkey.

    India and China will be the greatest oil guzzlers in the next half century (NIC 2020) and hence this oil for them is critical and the country(s) that controls this oil will obviously make a killing and thereby have its economy on pig's back in a manner of speaking, which in turn will help continue maintaining the sole superpower status.

    Hence, the US oil consortium has planned a pipeline to go through Afghanistan and Balochistan to the Gwadar port, from there the oil will be shipped to China and India (that is why the US is not keen on India and Pakistan opening a pipeline from Iran to India through Pakistan). One wonders if the Balochistan insurrection has anything to do with this pipeline. If Balochistan becomes independent, then the pipeline can go through without any problem of appeasing Pakistan as also it will box in Iran from three sides. This will also ensure that China is ousted from Gwadar where they are building a listening post (as per their Strategy of String of Pearls) so as to monitor US and allied activities in the Middle East.

    That said, what is US interests in Asia?

    While the US has shored up in the CAR to a great extent, China is exerting pressure through the Shanghai Five to ensure that the US does not sit pretty right on its borders since China still does not have full control of it Xinjiang (Sinkiang) area where it has a Uighur insurrection. It is in US' interest to keep the Uighur insurrection alive as also attempt foment Tibetan rebellion so that the pressure on China increases and it has less time and effort directed to Taiwan or Japan. India's Tibetan refugees come in handy. It will be noted that though the Dalai Lama is attempting to build bridges with China, the Tibet Youth are still belligerent and for the fist time questioning the Dalai Lama's Peace initiatives.

    The Indian Ocean sealanes are the lifeline for many countries including China and to US interests in the region. China has made forays into the Indian Ocean and has bases in Myanmar. The Indian Andaman and Nicobar islands control the Ten degree channel to a great extent. Therefore, permission to use Indian ports by US ship is important to the US. There was a news report that the US was keen to use Andaman and Nicobar for submarine pens, though this was denied by the Indian govt.

    If there is any conflict with China, the Sino Indian conflict will be ocean based and hence the extra effort of India to have a cognisable blue water navy.

    India thus plays an important role in US' geostrategic interests.

    Rather disjointed it may appear but that is the gist that I could write in a hurry..
     
  14. Rayc

    Rayc RIP

    Contrary to the popular lore, Pakistan is not the main adversary.

    The erstwhile Defence Minister George Fernandez spilled the beans.

    Except 1971, every war has been initiated by Pakistan and so India had to react.