India needs to prepare for war with China and Pakistan

Sadurian

LE
Book Reviewer
#41
At the Connections Wargames Conference in 2017 we ran simulation of the troubles in the South China Sea area. A little away from the India-Pakistan-China scenario but many of the issues are similar.

One of the conclusions reached was that it takes a lot to overcome strategic inertia. Several clashes moved to the point of conflict (which might be assumed to include skirmishes and relatively minor acts of terrorism) but few countries were willing to be seen as the aggressor by giving that extra push.

As a simulation it lacked a few factors which may have made it more realistic, culturally incongruous diplomacy saw countries making unlikely agreements with traditional rivals, for example, but it was interesting to see how all the 'willy waving' and rhetoric stopped short of actual war.
 
#43
#44
If Pakistan gets an extreme Islamist govt & India an extreme Hindu-nationalist govt in the future, I certainly wouldn't want to be downwind of New Delhi or Islamabad. (Well, actually I wouldn't want to be downwind of either in any case.) The Chinese presumably would be working to keep the peace in their region. What's in it for them if the subcontinental drama queens start going at it again, but with nukes?
 
#45
If Pakistan gets an extreme Islamist govt & India an extreme Hindu-nationalist govt in the future, I certainly wouldn't want to be downwind of New Delhi or Islamabad. (Well, actually I wouldn't want to be downwind of either in any case.) The Chinese presumably would be working to keep the peace in their region. What's in it for them if the subcontinental drama queens start going at it again, but with nukes?
China sells a ton of stuff to both the countries - so economically, it doesn't make any sense for both of these to go at each other.

And of course, there's the big fact that they are next door and you really don't want people lobbing nukes at each other next to you.
 
#46
If Pakistan gets an extreme Islamist govt & India an extreme Hindu-nationalist govt in the future, I certainly wouldn't want to be downwind of New Delhi or Islamabad. (Well, actually I wouldn't want to be downwind of either in any case.) The Chinese presumably would be working to keep the peace in their region. What's in it for them if the subcontinental drama queens start going at it again, but with nukes?
It is easy to imagine a scenario where Pakistan over estimates the amount of backing they have from China and provoke India, who in turn were looking for an excuse to split the Pakistan-China alliance. Alternatively India could imagine that they will be able to conduct a limited war to give both Pakistan and China a bloody nose and a lesson on how they need to respect India. WWI started more or less the same way.
 
#47
At the Connections Wargames Conference in 2017 we ran simulation of the troubles in the South China Sea area. A little away from the India-Pakistan-China scenario but many of the issues are similar.

One of the conclusions reached was that it takes a lot to overcome strategic inertia. Several clashes moved to the point of conflict (which might be assumed to include skirmishes and relatively minor acts of terrorism) but few countries were willing to be seen as the aggressor by giving that extra push.

As a simulation it lacked a few factors which may have made it more realistic, culturally incongruous diplomacy saw countries making unlikely agreements with traditional rivals, for example, but it was interesting to see how all the 'willy waving' and rhetoric stopped short of actual war.
Looks like we may get to see how accurate the simulation was.

'Pakistan army Tuesday violated ceasefire by resorting to firing on forward posts along Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir's Rajouri district, a defence official said. "Pakistani army initiated unprovoked ceasefire violation along LoC by firing of small arms in Nowshera Sector in district Rajouri at about 1900 hours", PRO Defence said, adding Indian Army is retaliating effectively.'

Pakistan violates ceasefire along LoC in Jammu and Kashmir's Rajouri, India retaliates

'Following Prime Minister (PM) Imran Khan’s address to the nation in response to Indian allegations regarding Pakistan’s involvement in the Pulwama attack, his Facebook page was updated with a post captioned: “Don’t mess with my country.” '

Don’t mess with my country, warns post on PM’s Facebook page
 
#48
Looks like we may get to see how accurate the simulation was.

'Pakistan army Tuesday violated ceasefire by resorting to firing on forward posts along Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir's Rajouri district, a defence official said. "Pakistani army initiated unprovoked ceasefire violation along LoC by firing of small arms in Nowshera Sector in district Rajouri at about 1900 hours", PRO Defence said, adding Indian Army is retaliating effectively.'

Pakistan violates ceasefire along LoC in Jammu and Kashmir's Rajouri, India retaliates

'Following Prime Minister (PM) Imran Khan’s address to the nation in response to Indian allegations regarding Pakistan’s involvement in the Pulwama attack, his Facebook page was updated with a post captioned: “Don’t mess with my country.” '

Don’t mess with my country, warns post on PM’s Facebook page
They shoot at each other across the border on a fairly regular basis, with soldiers on either side being killed.
 
#49
They shoot at each other across the border on a fairly regular basis, with soldiers on either side being killed.
From the first linked article:

'The year 2018 had witnessed the highest number of ceasefire violations -- 2,936 -- by Pakistani troops in the last 15 years along the Indo-Pak border. '
 
#50
I sometimes don't get the end goal plan of what Pakistan is trying to achieve by funding and harboring all these terrorist groups - yes, everyone, including the U.S. knows they do.

Yes, they hate India but they will never be able to "wipe" India off the map - they have too much geographical depth - kinda like Russia in WW2 - and the resources - and the amount of people. I know they are trying to use China as a 2nd front partner, but I don't think China is not going to do a repeat invasion of India like it did in the 60s(?) - far too much lose and it can gain better with soft power. Economy between China and India is a huge binding factor, even if there are some border tensions and territorial ones and my country the U.S. has actively been courting India to be a counter factor.

I really think Pakistan needs to just grow the F up. It was once ahead of India in terms of economy etc. Now it's basically become Afghanistan + with nukes.
 
#51
India must be seriously deluded if they think they can go against the Chinese. Even with Pakistan, it won't be pretty. No real wars ever are. Especially when there are nukes involved.
What exactly is a non real war? If soldiers and civilians die in a conflict it isn’t pretty no matter how you phrase it......
 
#52
Having traveled to Bangladesh, India and Pakistan, I have to say Islamabad and Lahore are (when benchmarked against Indian/Bangladesh cities) quite pleasant. Yes, there's a huge cadre of nutters wanting to lynch/burn everything and everyone that's not Islamic, but there's also a very large, well educated middle class population who speak the Queens English, don't wear halloween outfits and openly roll their eyes at the uneducated masses. The one major downside (like Bangers) is a lack of cold beer! if you don't like curry, then there's plenty of Chinese restaurants selling first class Chinkychew, the kind you buy in Blighty, not mainland China.
 
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#53
I read a while back that in the 1960s, the UK had plans and target packs ready to deploy V bombers to deter Chinese aggression along India’s northern border. Also at the time there were advanced plans to develop a Commonwealth Nuclear force amongst UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.
 
#54
I read a while back that in the 1960s, the UK had plans and target packs ready to deploy V bombers to deter Chinese aggression along India’s northern border. Also at the time there were advanced plans to develop a Commonwealth Nuclear force amongst UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.



Finally, The Sunday Times revealed on 31st December 2000 that nuclear weapons had been based in Akrotiri, Cyprus and Tengah, Singapore. These weapons were not just for the V-Force, but the point I want to make here is that these nuclear weapons were there to help allies in the area. Australia and New Zealand were obvious friends that Britain might want to protect after China exploded her first nuclear device on 16thOctober 1964, but when Prime Minister Shastri of India visited London in December 1964 he too was said to have discussed the question of nuclear guarantees in the Far East. Senior RAF officers who served in the area found little evidence of enthusiasm in New Delhi for a British nuclear umbrella, but Whitehall was ready to provide some form of nuclear guarantee in order to deter a Chinese nuclear strike or a massive Chinese conventional attack on India’s northern border. The V-Force certainly had the capability to strike at the centre of Chinese nuclear technology from Indian air bases and, remote as the chances of India asking for it might have been, Bomber Command might have been more acceptable to the Indians and would have run less risk of reviving the Sino-Soviet alliance than an American nuclear presence. Whitehall also hoped that such a guarantee would dissuade India from building her own atomic weapons, thereby inhibiting the spread of nuclear capabilities in Asia.
 
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#60
True, Chernobyl caused problems for farmers in the UK with fallout
More than just fallout. Over time, I'd almost managed to erase the term 'nuclear winter' from memory.

From Wiki: 'A study presented at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union in December 2006 found that even a small-scale, regional nuclear war could disrupt the global climate for a decade or more. In a regional nuclear conflict scenario where two opposing nations in the subtropics would each use 50 Hiroshima-sized nuclear weapons (about 15 kiloton each) on major population centers, the researchers estimated as much as five million tons of soot would be released, which would produce a cooling of several degrees over large areas of North America and Eurasia, including most of the grain-growing regions. The cooling would last for years, and, according to the research, could be "catastrophic".'
 
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