India needs to prepare for war with China and Pakistan

Hardly surprising given the 'belt and road' and 'string of pearls'. From memory, the Chinese have had a military interesting Myanmar for quite a few years. I guess the biggest surprise is that it has taken this long for OS reporting of Chinese submarine activity this far from home waters.

NED-917-The Next South China Sea infographic - 0


'The Andaman Sea is fast becoming the latest target of Chinese expansionism. India says it has seen a surge of Chinese submarine activity in the strategically critical waterway.

'And, last month, its navy booted a Chinese spy ship out of its waters. But Indian Navy sources say Chinese submarines have become a regular visitor to the region. And they’re much harder to deal with. In September, the Indian navy evicted the Chinese survey ship Shiyan-1 for intruding upon its exclusive economic zone. It was sailing among the Andaman and Nicobar Islands without permission. And such survey ships map the ocean floor for just two purposes: military or economic. Seeking oil, gas or other significant resource deposits inside Indian waters would be … cheeky. Gleaning high-resolution charts of canyons on the sea floor for submarines to hide among would be … offensive. Exactly why China would be interested in these islands can be inferred by the proximity of Malacca Strait. The narrow channel is a natural choke-point for most of Asia’s trade and fuel supplies.

'Just 10 years ago, China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) seldom visited the region. Now, India says some eight to 10 ships and submarines are found there each year. And those submarines are only the ones India detects. Since 2012, Beijing has been sending regular submarine patrols into the Andaman Sea and Bay of Bengal. India says it has been finding between three and four of them every three months.

'It’s a sign of things to come, warns Institute of South Asian Studies research fellow Yogesh Joshi. “The Andaman Sea is slowly but surely becoming (a) most crucial battlefront. While this does not necessarily imply that a clash between the two navies is inevitable, the waters around the Andaman Sea will see the two navies jostling more frequently than in the past.”

'Whoever controls the Andaman Sea controls the Malacca Strait. Whoever controls Malacca Strait has a chokehold on the arterial flow of oil tankers, grain ships and bulk-cargo carriers supplying the whole western Pacific. In particular, China. “China’s economy relies heavily on sea lanes of communication passing through the waterway; it, therefore, fears a situation where hostile powers could interdict these vital economic lifelines,” Joshi writes.'


Full article - Secret sub reveals China’s chilling plan
 
A good précis of the changing ‘Maratime’ (sic) threat presented by Chinese ambitions in one of their areas of focus.

Their submarine capabilities arguably lag considerably behind those of their latest surface assets. However, they’re more than enough to threaten India and will inevitably improve to the point that they can match or even exceed those of the West.

Regards,
MM
 
In September, the Indian navy evicted the Chinese survey ship Shiyan-1 for intruding upon its exclusive economic zone.
The Indian Navy denied the right of innocent passage through an EEZ which is enshrined in UNCLOS? Presumably, this act of aggression will attract appropriate levels of international condemnation.


“China’s economy relies heavily on sea lanes of communication passing through the waterway; it, therefore, fears a situation where hostile powers could interdict these vital economic lifelines,” Joshi writes.'
So the Chinese threat is that they'll attempt to... er... keep the straits open at all costs?...
 
As opposed to China who scrupilousy respect UNCLOS in all respects.

Regards,
MM
 

Londo

LE
Hardly surprising given the 'belt and road' and 'string of pearls'. From memory, the Chinese have had a military interesting Myanmar for quite a few years. I guess the biggest surprise is that it has taken this long for OS reporting of Chinese submarine activity this far from home waters.

NED-917-The Next South China Sea infographic - 0


'The Andaman Sea is fast becoming the latest target of Chinese expansionism. India says it has seen a surge of Chinese submarine activity in the strategically critical waterway.

'And, last month, its navy booted a Chinese spy ship out of its waters. But Indian Navy sources say Chinese submarines have become a regular visitor to the region. And they’re much harder to deal with. In September, the Indian navy evicted the Chinese survey ship Shiyan-1 for intruding upon its exclusive economic zone. It was sailing among the Andaman and Nicobar Islands without permission. And such survey ships map the ocean floor for just two purposes: military or economic. Seeking oil, gas or other significant resource deposits inside Indian waters would be … cheeky. Gleaning high-resolution charts of canyons on the sea floor for submarines to hide among would be … offensive. Exactly why China would be interested in these islands can be inferred by the proximity of Malacca Strait. The narrow channel is a natural choke-point for most of Asia’s trade and fuel supplies.

'Just 10 years ago, China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) seldom visited the region. Now, India says some eight to 10 ships and submarines are found there each year. And those submarines are only the ones India detects. Since 2012, Beijing has been sending regular submarine patrols into the Andaman Sea and Bay of Bengal. India says it has been finding between three and four of them every three months.

'It’s a sign of things to come, warns Institute of South Asian Studies research fellow Yogesh Joshi. “The Andaman Sea is slowly but surely becoming (a) most crucial battlefront. While this does not necessarily imply that a clash between the two navies is inevitable, the waters around the Andaman Sea will see the two navies jostling more frequently than in the past.”

'Whoever controls the Andaman Sea controls the Malacca Strait. Whoever controls Malacca Strait has a chokehold on the arterial flow of oil tankers, grain ships and bulk-cargo carriers supplying the whole western Pacific. In particular, China. “China’s economy relies heavily on sea lanes of communication passing through the waterway; it, therefore, fears a situation where hostile powers could interdict these vital economic lifelines,” Joshi writes.'


Full article - Secret sub reveals China’s chilling plan
Never realised the Chinese had so many subs
 
As opposed to China who scrupilousy respect UNCLOS in all respects.
They disagree over which features have what definitions and rights under UNCLOS but where there's agreement they do respect UNCLOS. The other major difference being that where their claims aren't supported by us, there's loud condemnation at them doing stuff that in our view breaches UNCLOS.

Kinda like what you'd expect here - if principle were at all involved.
 
The Chinese are shit at maintaining that...there's a reason why the USN transits the straits from time to time.
 
The Chinese are shit at maintaining that...there's a reason why the USN transits the straits from time to time.
To demonstrate that innocent passage of non-territorial waters is an inviolable norm.

Just the sort of norm India seems to be violating, if that article has its facts right.
 
(...) 'Whoever controls the Andaman Sea controls the Malacca Strait. Whoever controls Malacca Strait has a chokehold on the arterial flow of oil tankers, grain ships and bulk-cargo carriers supplying the whole western Pacific. In particular, China. “China’s economy relies heavily on sea lanes of communication passing through the waterway; it, therefore, fears a situation where hostile powers could interdict these vital economic lifelines,” Joshi writes.'
Maintaining the security of trade through international waters and international straits is the normal activity of any navy, and seeing China engage in this is pretty much what we would expect to see from any normal country with the means to do so. So there should be no surprise there.

That map gives a very interesting view of things if you look at it from the Chinese perspective. There are three straits which control China's critical supply lines from the Middle East and Africa - the Straits of Malacca, with India's Andaman Islands at the outlet, the Lombok Straits, with Australia's Christmas Island near the outlet, and the Sunda Straits, with both Christmas Island and mainlaind Australia near the outlet.

If those are blocked then shipping has to go around Australia and then past a number of American island colonial possessions.

Given that geography, an intense interest by the Chinese in securing their trade routes in their immediate neighbourhood shouldn't be too surprising. We should be able to see from that what China will likely be focusing their main naval effort towards.

With regards to Burma/Myanmar, that country has long been considered to be well positioned as a trade route between the southern interior of China and the Indian Ocean. It also neatly bypasses the Indonesian straits and bottlenecks between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. That still leaves India close at hand, but there is more room for shipping to manoeuvre to avoid conflict.
 
To demonstrate that innocent passage of non-territorial waters is an inviolable norm.

Just the sort of norm India seems to be violating, if that article has its facts right.
More importantly, Exclusive Economic Zones aren't territorial waters. They are just a zone in which the Coastal State is allowed exclusive rights in which to exploit the fish, oil, and other natural resources and control the building of artificial structures such as wind turbines. There is some verbiage about having control over "marine scientific research", but it's pretty clear from the context given in the rest of the document that this refers to harvesting fish and whales for "research purposes" and so is intended to prevent someone using "research" as a loophole in fishing regulations.
In the exclusive economic zone, all States, whether coastal or land-locked, enjoy, subject to the relevant provisions of this Convention, the freedoms referred to in article 87 of navigation and overflight and of the laying of submarine cables and pipelines, and other internationally lawful uses of the sea related to these freedoms, such as those associated with the operation of ships, aircraft and submarine cables and pipelines, and compatible with the other provisions of this Convention.
The Chinese could cruise around India's EEZ all they want, and so long as they don't molest the fish or drill for oil, India has no grounds for objection. As I understand the text they could even lay submarine cables through the area and India would have zero grounds for objection. The UK and the US by the way are also very firm proponents of this point of view when it comes to their own navies, so the other major naval powers seem to be in agreement on this point.

If India did indeed eject a Chinese survey ship from those waters, then they acted illegally and agressively.
 
If India did indeed eject a Chinese survey ship from those waters, then they acted illegally and agressively.
Stand by for international condemnation of India in 3..., 2...

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Hello? Anyone?
 
They disagree over which features have what definitions and rights under UNCLOS...
I think most people - as well as the UN itself - disagrees with how China ‘interprets’ UNCLOS.

Don't get me wrong, plenty of other nations breach the Convention. However, China’s behaviour in the SCS take it to a different level.

Regards,
MM
 
If India did indeed eject a Chinese survey ship from those waters, then they acted illegally and agressively.
Would that not depend on why it was evicted ?

Smart as may be on point as regards a lack of condemnation and hypocricy of the world vis freedom of seas - on the other hand if said Chinese vessel was doing something untoward - theres perhaps a grey area.

I havent seen the article so cant pass comment and whilst im a proponent of freedom of navigation - I do feel a country has a right to take action against abuses -

Personally I would like to ban the Russian Navy from our waters on environmental / Safety grounds** ( the fact their carrier constitutes more a hazard to navigation than it does a functioning ship and smokes like a beagle) - much as I respect the fact they are perfectly entitled to shelter from bad weather in the forth and can legally transit the channel and yawn with the rest when the mail / mirror / other gets all upset at this.

**As we do with dodgy 3rd world airlines and (currently) boeings.
 
I think most people - as well as the UN itself - disagrees with how China ‘interprets’ UNCLOS.
In certain situations, not in others.

However, China’s behaviour in the SCS take it to a different level.
In scale, perhaps. Most of the activities people cite as 'aggression' are ones where the PRC is playing catch up - building artificial settlements, disputing other peoples' claims, establishing ADIZs, etc.
 
Would that not depend on why it was evicted ?
A this point we only have the word of an Australian tabloid that anyone was evicted from anywhere, and their link to the supposed proof of this made no mention of this taking place.

Smart as may be on point as regards a lack of condemnation and hypocricy of the world vis freedom of seas - on the other hand if said Chinese vessel was doing something untoward - theres perhaps a grey area.
Well according to the "freedom of navigation" line from the usual suspects, a country should be able to do all the "untoward" things they want on the high seas unless they engage in piracy or poach fish. Or is "freedom of navigation" not available to countries where the people are slanty-eyed?

I havent seen the article so cant pass comment and whilst im a proponent of freedom of navigation - I do feel a country has a right to take action against abuses - (...)
We've seen nothing to suggest that the Chinese were stealing Indian fish or oil from their EEZ, so what would those "abuses" be that the Indians had legitimate grounds to complain about?

Here's another source with more details of what seems to be the same incident. Again, this lacks detail, but note that ship was reported as being in an EEZ, not territorial waters. None the less India sent a warship to drive them away.
Chinese research vessel expelled by Indian warship for operating near Andaman and Nicobar Islands
A maritime surveillance aircraft spotted the ship inside the islands’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ) – an area extending 200 nautical miles off its coastline – and a warship was dispatched to drive it away, the report said.
India's official position was that you cannot operate in "their region" without getting permission from India. Keep in mind that "their region" does not refer to India's territorial waters, but rather in a much broader sense.
India’s naval chief Admiral Karambir Singh was quoted as saying at a press conference on Tuesday that the Chinese vessel had entered the area without receiving clearance to do so.

“Our stand has been that if you do anything in our region, you have to notify us or get our permission,” he said.
Oh look, India have just effectively drawn their own "nine dash line" in the Indian Ocean without a peep of protest against it from the "freedom of navigation" lobby.

As I've said more than once before on this site, India have their own hegemonic ambitions in the region and should not be viewed as being innocuous. They may have limited ability at the moment, but over the long term I believe they are at least as much of a "threat" as China.
 
I totally agree if it was the case.
As the washout on my branch training course was heard to utter, "Assuming he's right, I agree with him'. A week later, he was gone.
 
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A this point we only have the word of an Australian tabloid that anyone was evicted from anywhere, and their link to the supposed proof of this made no mention of this taking place.
Hence my enquiry as to back ground

[/QUOTE]
As I've said more than once before on this site, India have their own hegemonic ambitions in the region and should not be viewed as being innocuous. They may have limited ability at the moment, but over the long term I believe they are at least as much of a "threat" as China.
[/QUOTE]

I suspect the next African scramble will be those 2 empire building


Edit - I responded to several points bit seem to have monged it at the finish so ive deleted all but the above
 
Hence my enquiry as to back ground (...)
I did find and link a SCMP story which may have been about the same incident, so it may have happened.

The quote from an Indian admiral about anyone doing anything in the region having to get permission from India was perhaps more illuminating about attitudes.

India doesn't have the economic or military strength to support that sort of attitude at this time, but that is expected to change over the next few decades at which time they may go for a confrontation with China. Alternatively, it may come about indirectly through a confrontation with Pakistan, who are then backed up by China.
 

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