India needs to prepare for war with China and Pakistan

Indx-TechS

Clanker
Anyways, I think someone mentioned about some "high resolution" photos of strike target claiming "No damage" to building. I'm wondering if someone could provide me with those images.

Well, NTRO (Indian reconnaissance & cyber intelligence agency, equivalent to American NRO) has stated that it has recorded the damage.
I myself have access to some images which indicate partial damage and not complete destruction. Probably 4 bombs have hit the mountain while 2 have missed target to fall in trees in valley. One building is done while other had significant damage.

I'm afraid that people aren't quoting images from Kashmiri Balakote. There are two Balakotes. One in Pakistani controlled Kashmir, other in Pakistan itself which is sealed and inaccessible since February 26th.

For debate, I think I've collected the opinion I had to and no arguments are needed further. I only wanna see those images now.
Regards
 
Anyways, I think someone mentioned about some "high resolution" photos of strike target claiming "No damage" to building. I'm wondering if someone could provide me with those images.

Well, NTRO (Indian reconnaissance & cyber intelligence agency, equivalent to American NRO) has stated that it has recorded the damage.
I myself have access to some images which indicate partial damage and not complete destruction. Probably 4 bombs have hit the mountain while 2 have missed target to fall in trees in valley. One building is done while other had significant damage.

I'm afraid that people aren't quoting images from Kashmiri Balakote. There are two Balakotes. One in Pakistani controlled Kashmir, other in Pakistan itself which is sealed and inaccessible since February 26th.

For debate, I think I've collected the opinion I had to and no arguments are needed further. I only wanna see those images now.
Regards
This is the article that quoted the satellite images: Satellite images show buildings still standing at Indian bombing site | Reuters
A cropped version of a satellite image shows a close-up of a madrasa near Balakot, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, Pakistan, March 4, 2019. Picture taken March 4, 2019. Mandatory credit: Planet Labs Inc./Handout via REUTERS
 

Indx-TechS

Clanker
Same as that of mine. A few of small buildings haven't been mentioned in article which were blown though.
In the left, there seems to valley where bombs which missed target, would have fell.
In center, there is a building with destroyed roof they haven't noticed (structure seems to br standing straight though).
On the top, the yard has burn spots.

Damage was there but not very high. It satisfies the claim of Italian journalist who said that 30-35 deaths were there.

And me, who said real figures lie between Indian & Pakistani claims.
Fine, thanks
 
Same as that of mine. A few of small buildings haven't been mentioned in article which were blown though.
In the left, there seems to valley where bombs which missed target, would have fell.
In center, there is a building with destroyed roof they haven't noticed (structure seems to br standing straight though).
On the top, the yard has burn spots.

Damage was there but not very high. It satisfies the claim of Italian journalist who said that 30-35 deaths were there.

And me, who said real figures lie between Indian & Pakistani claims.
Fine, thanks
India says Pakistan hiding information by blocking access to bombing site | Reuters
Not sure on the Italians, but the Pakistani’s are denying access to Reuter’s reporters:
Citing “security concerns”, Pakistani security officials on Thursday barred a Reuters team from climbing a hill in northeastern Pakistan to the site of a madrasa, or religious school, and a group of surrounding buildings that was targeted by Indian warplanes last week.

“The fact that Pakistan has now refused access to journalists from visiting the site means that they have plenty to hide,” Indian foreign ministry spokesman Raveesh Kumar told reporters.
 
Even a prolonged nuclear armageddon won't have damage circle beyond Pakistan and northwest India.
You're overrating the damage of nukes.
Well that’s certainly an alternative viewpoint that I suspect very few would subscribe to!

You only have to look at Chernobyl and Fukushima to see the enormous and long-term environmental damage which resulted from even accidental releases of radiation and relatively small amounts of fallout. First, multiply that by several hundred thousand times for even a limited nuclear exchange. Then add in the far higher casualty numbers which would result from the use of nuclear weapons; its not as if either nation exactly has a well founded health service for all parts of their societies! I suspect we could also expect a human wave of refugees from affected areas and the likelihood of subsequent social unrest and possibly civil war in India, Pakistan and other nations nearby.

Finally, there remains the danger of the conflict spreading.

I find your comments both very worrying and, with respect, naive.

Regards,
MM
 
Meanwhile...an Indian MiG-21 Bison has crashed following a Birdstrike. Thankfully, the pilot ejected successfully...

...Delhi has claimed that witnesses stated that at least 3 birds landed on the Pakistan side of the Line of Control. Moreover, DNA analysis of bird remains found in the debris of the MiG-21’s engine prove conclusively that at least one Jordanian Green crested bee-eater was involved.

Sorry...I just couldn’t resist it! ;)

Regards,
MM
You dog.:)
 

Indx-TechS

Clanker
Well that’s certainly an alternative viewpoint that I suspect very few would subscribe to!

You only have to look at Chernobyl and Fukushima to see the enormous and long-term environmental damage which resulted from even accidental releases of radiation and relatively small amounts of fallout. First, multiply that by several hundred thousand times for even a limited nuclear exchange. Then add in the far higher casualty numbers which would result from the use of nuclear weapons; its not as if either nation exactly has a well founded health service for all parts of their societies!
Well, you just listed up consequences I'm well aware of and they would the reason why US is bothered with DPRK and why India had been tolerating jihadis till now.

The extent of direct & indirect (fallout/radiation) damage would depend upon the blast yield and geography of area and the affected areas where people are supposed to be sent in NBC bunkers or pulled out.
It fails to contradict what I said:
Even a prolonged nuclear armageddon won't have damage circle beyond Pakistan and northwest India.
You're overrating the damage of nukes.
Applicable as long as Pakistan sticks its own policy and doesn't go around Indian Cities.
Casualties whether Pakistan sticks to its doctrine or not, point I agree that use of WMDs is going to impart mass casualties. But small stockpiles with small nukes have limits.
I suspect we could also expect a human wave of refugees from affected areas and the likelihood of subsequent social unrest and possibly civil war in India, Pakistan and other nations nearby.
Finally, there remains the danger of the conflict spreading.
I find your comments both very worrying and, with respect, naive.
Civil War in case of internal emmigration inside country is characteristic of a fragile state with dysfunctional or incapable establishment or high degree of conflicts inside society. India has well integrated infrastructure and transport networks enough to withdraw even before any attack, government with enough funds for rehabilitation and camps.
Civil war's concept doesn't make sense for the point, "why will it happen?" There is no conflict inside states regarding state of origin.
I'm sounding like a war advocate now.

There is no nation near India and Pakistan. You have to cross Himalayas to reach China. You don't have to leave India to escape fallout but travel upto a safe distance inside India. Agree that India isn't a great place unlike quoted by government, it isn't a sh!thole either unlike quoted by a few magazines.
It's an okay place and functions stably like your countries might be doing.
Meanwhile...an Indian MiG-21 Bison has crashed following a Birdstrike. Thankfully, the pilot ejected successfully...

...Delhi has claimed that witnesses stated that at least 3 birds landed on the Pakistan side of the Line of Control. Moreover, DNA analysis of bird remains found in the debris of the MiG-21’s engine prove conclusively that at least one Jordanian Green crested bee-eater was involved.

Sorry...I just couldn’t resist it! ;)

Regards,
MM
MiG-21 is called "flying coffin" in IAF. That sums up everything.
 
The extent of direct & indirect (fallout/radiation) damage would depend upon the blast yield and geography of area and the affected areas where people are supposed to be sent in NBC bunkers or pulled out.
It fails to contradict what I said:

Applicable as long as Pakistan sticks its own policy and doesn't go around Indian Cities.
Casualties whether Pakistan sticks to its doctrine or not, point I agree that use of WMDs is going to impart mass casualties. But small stockpiles with small nukes have limits.
Take for example Chernobyl, and then find Wales on a map, North Wales farmers were hit hard by nuclear fallout from Chernobyl and that's rather a long way away

China could be quite affected by the fallout, and I'd imagine not very enamoured with a nuclear war in their backyard

Let alone countries further afield

Where the fallout will affect farming and crops is rather unpredictable, but the impact will go beyond a military conflict
 
The extent of direct & indirect (fallout/radiation) damage would depend upon the blast yield and geography of area and the affected areas where people are supposed to be sent in NBC bunkers or pulled out.
It fails to contradict what I said:
I too am aware of the effects of nuclear weapons.

Let’s just hope the local population have time to get into bunkers or leave the areas likely to be targeted.

I stand by my comments that your earlier comment was very naive.

...Applicable as long as Pakistan sticks its own policy and doesn't go around Indian Cities...But small stockpiles with small nukes have limits...
Let’s hope Pakistan does then!

Both nations are fielding weapons which exceed the yield of the weapons dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. All weapons have limits. However, I’m astounded at your dismissal of the potential consequences.

Civil War in case of internal emmigration inside country is characteristic of a fragile state with dysfunctional or incapable establishment...Civil war's concept doesn't make sense for the point, "why will it happen?" There is no conflict inside states regarding state of origin...
If several of your cities have been destroyed, hundreds and thousands of your citizens killed, and millions more either affected by radiation or fearing they may be, I find it astounding you assume it’ll be business as usual and that internal stability won’t be in question.

...There is no nation near India and Pakistan. You have to cross Himalayas to reach China. You don't have to leave India to escape fallout but travel upto a safe distance inside India...
And that internal movement would likely involve hundreds of thousands, if not millions of people. Any country would struggle to cope. Then there’s the likelihood of a similar wave of Pakistani refugees seeking to escape into Iran, Afghanistan and across the Arabian Sea.

Nor would fallout be conveniently constrained to India and Pakistan.

Regards,
MM
 
I too am aware of the effects of nuclear weapons.

Let’s just hope the local population have time to get into bunkers or leave the areas likely to be targeted.

I stand by my comments that your earlier comment was very naive.



Let’s hope Pakistan does then!

Both nations are fielding weapons which exceed the yield of the weapons dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. All weapons have limits. However, I’m astounded at your dismissal of the potential consequences.



If several of your cities have been destroyed, hundreds and thousands of your citizens killed, and millions more either affected by radiation or fearing they may be, I find it astounding you assume it’ll be business as usual and that internal stability won’t be in question.



And that internal movement would likely involve hundreds of thousands, if not millions of people. Any country would struggle to cope. Then there’s the likelihood of a similar wave of Pakistani refugees seeking to escape into Iran, Afghanistan and across the Arabian Sea.

Nor would fallout be conveniently constrained to India and Pakistan.

Regards,
MM
The partition of India saw up to 2 million deaths and 14 million internally displaced persons. A renewed India-Pakistan war would see similar, if not greater, figures.
 
Does that mean if it kicks off there will millions of UK pakistanis/ Indians heading back to defend their homeland ?
No, more likely Indians and Pakistanis fighting on our streets.
 
I recall that fallout is minimal from an airburst weapon, where the fireball doesn't touch the ground. Still many deaths from flash and blast, but little residual radiation. EMP pulse may or may not be a military bonus.
Or have things changed?
 

seaweed

LE
Book Reviewer
How much fallout you get depends on the height of the burst relative to the yield, basically it's about whether the fireball touches the ground or not. An important consideration if one is planning to move forward and use the area near Ground Zero - or not, and merely planning max death and rendering the area unusable.
 
I recall that fallout is minimal from an airburst weapon, where the fireball doesn't touch the ground. Still many deaths from flash and blast, but little residual radiation. EMP pulse may or may not be a military bonus.
Or have things changed?
No, it’s the laws of physics so nothing’s changed.

An air burst would certainly produce significantly less than a detonation where the fireball touches the ground. However, it’s not the only factor.

After the positive blast wave has levelled the target, the following negative pulse may draw debris and dust up into the air where it may be irradiated. Likewise, weather and broader atmospheric conditions are also a factor and the detonation may produce a Flammagenitus cloud leading to highly radioactive artificial rain.

Regards,
MM
 
The author used the Indus Waters Treaty as an example of how India and Pakistan can cooperate despite the tension between them.
In the six decades since, despite several all-out wars between the two sides, the treaty has continued to operate. That continuity is a reminder of the contradictions inherent to a relationship born of a painful and violent divorce in 1947.
But the author appears to have missed the fact that India is threatening to divert part of the river at the headwaters.
India reiterates plan to stop sharing water with Pakistan
"Our government has decided to stop our share of water which used to flow to Pakistan," Nitin Gadkari, transport and water resources minister said in a tweet. He added that the country would divert water from eastern rivers and supply it to its people in Jammu and Kashmir and Punjab states.
Pakistan depends on the Indus River to irrigate 80% of their agriculture.
Pakistan has opposed some of these projects saying they violate the World Bank-mediated treaty on the sharing of the Indus waters, upon which 80 percent of its irrigated agriculture depends.
And a couple of years ago India said they were prepared to use water as a weapon.
Why India's water dispute matters
"Blood and water cannot flow at the same time," said Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday, as he announced that he was suspending meetings of the committee that oversees how water is shared between India and Pakistan.
It represents a dramatic use of water as a diplomatic weapon.
Pakistan are upset over an India backed plans for dams on the Kabul River in Afghanistan. The Kabul River is another critical source of water for Pakistan.
Afghanistan and Pakistan’s Looming Water Conflict
The Afghan government recently announced that they will soon commence work on the construction of the $236 million Shahtoot Dam on the Kabul River. The dam is expected to hold 146 million cubic meters of potable water for 2 million Kabul residents and irrigate 4,000 hectares of land in the Charasiab district of the province. The project is a component of Afghanistan’s India-backed ambitious plans of building 12 dams on the Kabul River basin.

The project, however, has agitated the water-stressed Pakistan. In a conference recently held in Peshawar, the Pakistani officials showed deep concerns regarding the inauspicious effects of the project on the agricultural production and livelihood of Peshawar residents. Pakistani media have even framed the project as Afghanistan’s oppressive policy toward Pakistan, masterminded by India. But for Afghanistan, improving its power and water infrastructures is imperative to jumpstart its lagging economy and ensure internal stability.
This article also mentions Pakistani concern over India involvement in dams on the Kabul River.
India’s Controversial Afghanistan Dams
Like Afghanistan, Pakistan is a water-stressed country and the overwhelming majority of its people depend on agriculture to earn a living. And while it is the Indus River that dominates Pakistan’s geography and economy, the Kabul River is significant too. The waters of this river and its tributaries are “indispensable” to meet the needs of 2 million residents of Peshawar city as well as for irrigation of the Peshawar Valley and parts of Tank, Dera Ismail Khan, Banuri, and North Waziristan. The Kabul River and its tributaries also augment the waters of the Indus River; they pour 20-28 million acre feet (MAF) of water into the Indus at Attock. Importantly, the Kabul River powers the 250-megawatt Warsak Dam in Pakistan, which generates 1,100 gigawatt hours of electricity per year.

Pakistanis fear that the benefits they draw from the Kabul River would be jeopardized if Afghanistan builds more dams on this river. According to the Pakistani media, Afghanistan plans to build 12 hydropower projects with capacity to generate 1,177 MW of electricity on the Kabul River. When completed, these will store 4.7 MAF of water for Afghanistan’s use, “squeezing the flow in the river reaching Pakistan.”
Pakistan is also concerned about growing links between India and Afghanistan, including water development. Pakistan are already worried that in the event of war India could cut Pakistan off from major headwaters of the Indus, and now dams on the Kabul river could add to that threat as well.
Instead, according to Meelad, “Pakistan is more concerned about the growing relationships between Kabul and New Delhi on various fronts, including water.”

Indeed, reports in the Pakistani media focus on concerns over India’s central role in the dam project and its implications for Pakistan. Pakistan is already worried that in the event of war with India, New Delhi could choke the Pakistani economy by shutting off the waters of the Indus River, which originates in India. Will its strong relations with Kabul and its role in the Shahtoot and other dam projects on the Kabul River enable India to choke the flow of that river’s waters as well?
In this Pakistani newspaper, which has connections with the Pakistan government, the editor calls India a "water bully" and accuses India of using their control of major headwaters of the Indus River as a weapon.
India: The water bully - Daily Times
Today, Pakistan is facing acute water shortage since no notable water storage projects have been executed. All the while, water coming downstream from the Himalayan glaciers’ is dumped into the ocean. India controls the spigots of the rivers flowing into Pakistan and diverts water for itself, depriving Pakistan of its fair share. When there is a surplus of water, India floods the rivers without warning, causing floods. In short, water is being used as a diplomatic tool of coercion against Pakistan, especially by the Modi regime.
I'm not going to say who is right or who is wrong in these disputes, the issues are complex and nuanced. However, it must be kept in mind that without the Indus River and its tributaries, Pakistan is mostly a desert, able to support only a fraction of their current population. If they see a serious threat to their supply of water, water without which they cannot exist, then they have very little reason to hold back at all. They would have nothing to lose by going for all out nuclear war with maximum devastation and maximum third party collateral damage if the alternative is slower but just as devastating collapse when India throttles their supply of water. Making that sort of threat and being seen as being serious about it is the only leverage they would have to get third parties to use their influence to get India to back down.

It is very easy to imagine a situation where Pakistan responds asymmetrically to a perceived threat from India. For example, India may in future calculate that they can put pressure on Pakistan to do something about the Kashmir terrorism problem by reducing water supplies without Pakistan being willing to go to war over it. However, Pakistan then responds with an all-out military response to seize control of the Indus headwaters. The Pakistani effort however grinds to a halt and India cuts water supplies more in retaliation. Pakistan then deciding they have little to lose at this point and push the nuclear button.

Because of these considerations, I would take claims that both sides would show restraint in any future conflict with a grain of salt.
 

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