India a biblical type disaster

Its all worked out well for the PRC then. They have knocked their neighbour and biggest rival (after the USA) for six causing havoc, and will probably come out of this with a healthy profit despite causing it in the first place.
India were doing not that badly until they took their eye off the ball a few month ago. However, everybody is coming out of this pandemic worse off than they would have been without it. There are just going to be varying degrees of "worse off".

The pandemic itself is going to be causing turmoil in wide stretches of the third world for years.

Then on top of all of that I expect to see some big bankruptcies in terms of countries and quite likely some big banks as well.

I don't know if the following has been making the news in the UK much, but things are kicking off big time in Colombia. It started off with protests over tax increases and it has spread to how the government has managed the pandemic, the economy, and a long list of historic grievances as well. There are multiple reports of police shooting protesters down in the streets by the dozen and there are lots of dead and injured.

Unlike Venezuela though, Colombia is "one of ours" so there hasn't been a peep of protest over this out of Western foreign ministries, and the mainstream media are giving it very limited and low key coverage. If things continue on the current trend though, then I would not be overly surprised if the government falls or at least is badly shaken.

We could see a lot more of this in other places as indirect consequences of the pandemic.
 
Something I've consistently noted a lot of Indians saying regarding this wave is that the real mortality/infection figures are 4-5x worse the reported ones.

I forsee some anti Modi disorder at some point. £330m on a statue and £100m on a new parliament building while there are public mass cremations in the streets.
What I have been reading in the news is that a lot of people are genuinely angry with Modi over his recent management of things, including allowing the big political rallies and religious festivals, the shortages of PPE and oxygen, and the general feeling that Modi made a mess of things while ignoring the people who were warning him about it.

I don't know Indian politics well enough to make a prediction, but the impression that I get is that Modi may have outlived his welcome and may be gone one way or another at the next election.
 
Something I've consistently noted a lot of Indians saying regarding this wave is that the real mortality/infection figures are 4-5x worse the reported ones.

I forsee some anti Modi disorder at some point. £330m on a statue and £100m on a new parliament building while there are public mass cremations in the streets.
So if the 250025 deaths (0.0181% IFR) is an undercount and 5 times worse than that it still means that they're doing far better than we have (0.187% IFR).

Hell make it 10 times worse (lazy maths) and clearly the way forward is still to disband the NHS and crap in the streets.

Obviously context like that isn't going to promote the fear porn whereas:

The fact that this has always been the case without Kung Flu added to the headline and acceptable to the locals is, for some reason, forgotten:

 

Nemesis44UK

LE
Book Reviewer
So if the 250025 deaths (0.0181% IFR) is an undercount and 5 times worse than that it still means that they're doing far better than we have (0.187% IFR).

Hell make it 10 times worse (lazy maths) and clearly the way forward is still to disband the NHS and crap in the streets.

Obviously context like that isn't going to promote the fear porn whereas:

The fact that this has always been the case without Kung Flu added to the headline and acceptable to the locals is, for some reason, forgotten:


Looking at Worldometer, the death toll for India is not far ahead of Mexico, with Mexico having ten times fewer populace (253k for India vs 219k for Mexico).

China is the place to be, they haven't had any deaths for ages and they only lost 3k.
 
On the news this morning..

India - a modern, progressive state with its own Nuclear and space programs...

...is running out of wood for cremations.

Now using dried cow sh*t to burn the bodies...

Now, cow dung to be used instead of wooden logs for cremating bodies in Delhi

Covid-19 in India: crematoriums turn to cow dung as wood runs short


bikaner-india-february-street-covered-garbage-old-town-bikaner-rajasthan-street-covered-garbage-old-town-154041994.jpg


I think I'll cross India off my list of possible holiday destinations...
Looks vibrant
 

MissingOTC

War Hero
Looking at Worldometer, the death toll for India is not far ahead of Mexico, with Mexico having ten times fewer populace (253k for India vs 219k for Mexico).

China is the place to be, they haven't had any deaths for ages and they only lost 3k.

They are estimating Indian dead approx 5 times higher then reported
 
Looking at Worldometer, the death toll for India is not far ahead of Mexico, with Mexico having ten times fewer populace (253k for India vs 219k for Mexico). (...)

Here's India compared to Mexico on the site you mention.

Mexico_2021-05-11_Daily-Cases.png


India_2021-05-11_Daily-Cases.png


As you said, India has 10 times the population of Mexico. Here's some comparative figures.

India
  • Population: 1,391,605,161
  • Cases per million: 16,522
  • Current daily cases: 329,517
  • Current daily deaths: 3,879
  • Cumulative deaths per million: 180

Mexico
  • Population: 130,090,737
  • Cases per million: 18,186
  • Current daily cases: 1,175
  • Current daily deaths: 57
  • Cumulative deaths per million: 1,683
In terms of cumulative deaths, Mexico has ten times the deaths per million of India. Mexico's recorded death rate is almost identical to that of Spain, while India's is far below the global average.

We'll leave aside the issue that India's numbers are according to all informed people a major undercount and just look at the current situation. Mexico accumulated their cases and deaths over the course of a year, while with India it's all in one big lump coming right now.

The deaths from new cases happening today won't appear until weeks from now, so let's just focus on the case count.

The worst seven day rolling average for Mexico was 17,462, which they saw in early January. For India it's 391,322, and this is where they are today. So in proportion to population, for India it is currently twice as bad as was in Mexico at its worst, and that's leaving aside the issue of the true figure for India possibly being as much as 10 times the official one.

So we have a situation in India where things are currently at least twice as bad as they were in Mexico at its worst, and things were pretty bad in Mexico. And we don't know yet how much worse things may get in India.

In terms of actual body count, that tends to trail infections by several weeks. We can expect to see a high death rate for India for some time just based on current infections, giving them time to climb the rankings in that regards.
 
Here's India compared to Mexico on the site you mention.

View attachment 572579

View attachment 572580

As you said, India has 10 times the population of Mexico. Here's some comparative figures.

India
  • Population: 1,391,605,161
  • Cases per million: 16,522
  • Current daily cases: 329,517
  • Current daily deaths: 3,879
  • Cumulative deaths per million: 180

Mexico
  • Population: 130,090,737
  • Cases per million: 18,186
  • Current daily cases: 1,175
  • Current daily deaths: 57
  • Cumulative deaths per million: 1,683
In terms of cumulative deaths, Mexico has ten times the deaths per million of India. Mexico's recorded death rate is almost identical to that of Spain, while India's is far below the global average.

We'll leave aside the issue that India's numbers are according to all informed people a major undercount and just look at the current situation. Mexico accumulated their cases and deaths over the course of a year, while with India it's all in one big lump coming right now.

The deaths from new cases happening today won't appear until weeks from now, so let's just focus on the case count.

The worst seven day rolling average for Mexico was 17,462, which they saw in early January. For India it's 391,322, and this is where they are today. So in proportion to population, for India it is currently twice as bad as was in Mexico at its worst, and that's leaving aside the issue of the true figure for India possibly being as much as 10 times the official one.

So we have a situation in India where things are currently at least twice as bad as they were in Mexico at its worst, and things were pretty bad in Mexico. And we don't know yet how much worse things may get in India.

In terms of actual body count, that tends to trail infections by several weeks. We can expect to see a high death rate for India for some time just based on current infections, giving them time to climb the rankings in that regards.
India should get there tiny winy army involved
 
Looking at Worldometer, the death toll for India is not far ahead of Mexico, with Mexico having ten times fewer populace (253k for India vs 219k for Mexico).

China is the place to be, they haven't had any deaths for ages and they only lost 3k.
Well officially :)
coronavirus-data-explorer (4).png

However Indian methods and medicine clearly pay off and as their 'cases' are dropping rapidly its only going to go down over the next few weeks.

Hell its early, come on for the sake of public health get out there and curl out a Mr Whippy in the street.
 

Indx-TechS

Clanker
We'll leave aside the issue that India's numbers are according to all informed people a major undercount and just look at the current situation. Mexico accumulated their cases and deaths over the course of a year, while with India it's all in one big lump coming right now.
Mexico's deaths were skyrocketed throughout strain 117 hit. Most of Indian deaths meanwhile have accumulated since 2020 with a fraction of deaths from strain 167 started last month. It doesn't get detected in RT-PCR and isn't affected by many vaccines. Vaccines updated for fighting new strain have their own side effects.
Indeed, Indian administration were sitting conformably after coming out intact from previous strain.
The worst seven day rolling average for Mexico was 17,462, which they saw in early January. For India it's 391,322, and this is where they are today. So in proportion to population, for India it is currently twice as bad as was in Mexico at its worst, and that's leaving aside the issue of the true figure for India possibly being as much as 10 times the official one.
AFAIK Mexico's testing rate is just a fraction of India and Brazil, even lower than that of Pakistan. It yet had way higher IFR and CFR pushing it into top tables.

A large fraction of India's population anyway has caught COVID at some point in past two years.

Just as IT, space, material science and engineering, medical & pharmateutical research and production is another sector where India oddly leads most countries in developing world which produces largest volumes of drugs, innovates medtech and attracts large number of medical tourists.
India has maintained 1.5-2 million tests per day for past 6-7 months. Infection and death rates were dormant, suddenly shot up, again came down and now climbing once again at same maintained testing rate. It's testing and vaccinations again only trail most countries from western world and east Asia.


Since most other "third world" countries unlike India have meagre tests and even aren't able to undertake genome sequencing to determine the viral strain, I refuse to believe that situation would be any better there. It isn't that Indians have any better facilities. But in terms of research and mass drugging abilities, India is a bit more.
In terms of actual body count, that tends to trail infections by several weeks. We can expect to see a high death rate for India for some time just based on current infections, giving them time to climb the rankings in that regards.
Most of overall deaths whichever MohFW could record are issued by hospitals from portals. People died of "unknown" reasons like in home quarantine or remote areas might be reported earlier.

Before pandemic, 25k-30k people used to die in India everyday. So if the apocalyptic porn of 10-23 times actual death rates given by "informed" people (themselves are quoting Indian journos) and COVID deaths in India actually eat up 50% to 100% monthly births in India every month, population should decline this year and every Indian would have lost at least one person in acquisitance.

It's bullshit anyway at least for now on ground, it's just an apocalyptic porn which will decline and be forgotten after virus.
 
(...) AFAIK Mexico's testing rate is just a fraction of India and Brazil, even lower than that of Pakistan. It yet had way higher IFR and CFR pushing it into top tables.
CFR (Case Fatality Rate) is a meaningless number in the context of a global pandemic. It's more a measure of how much testing is taking place rather than how many people are dying. The more tests are conducted, the lower the CFR and visa versa.

It's also going to be affected by what gets put on the death certificate. If there is limited testing then classification of deaths can be arbitrary and we don't necessarily get numbers comparable to those in other countries. This again makes relative CFR numbers fairly meaningless when comparing third world countries who are not doing things in comparable ways.

So with CFR we have a number where both the numerator and denominator are fairly arbitrary numbers in much of the world. It's only in countries with very extensive and well organised public health systems that can get reasonably good data, and most third world countries can't afford that.

A large fraction of India's population anyway has caught COVID at some point in past two years.
This is an idea that a number of countries tried to comfort themselves with over the past year. "We have built up natural immunity so things won't be so bad in future". And then things got a lot worse anyway. Have a look at Brazil and the US as examples.

(...) Since most other "third world" countries unlike India have meagre tests and even aren't able to undertake genome sequencing to determine the viral strain, I refuse to believe that situation would be any better there. It isn't that Indians have any better facilities. But in terms of research and mass drugging abilities, India is a bit more.
The thread of discussion started with someone stating that things can't be bad in India because the cumulative numbers were lower than in Mexico. I stated that things had been bad in Mexico, and while the cumulative numbers in India were much lower than in Mexico, the current numbers in India are twice as bad as Mexico had at their peak and it is the current situation we are talking about.

Just how accurate Mexico's and India's numbers are can be a subject for debate, but the real point is that the comparison of the Worldometers given does not support the claim that was made, and indeed a close look contracts the original interpretation made.

Most of overall deaths whichever MohFW could record are issued by hospitals from portals. People died of "unknown" reasons like in home quarantine or remote areas might be reported earlier.

Before pandemic, 25k-30k people used to die in India everyday. So if the apocalyptic porn of 10-23 times actual death rates given by "informed" people (themselves are quoting Indian journos) and COVID deaths in India actually eat up 50% to 100% monthly births in India every month, population should decline this year and every Indian would have lost at least one person in acquisitance.

It's bullshit anyway at least for now on ground, it's just an apocalyptic porn which will decline and be forgotten after virus.
We are getting numerous credible news reports of hospitals overflowing with COVID-19 patients, oxygen shortages, and crematoria being overwhelmed. We may not be able to measure the exact scale of the problem, but it's clear that there is a major problem in India right now.

The problem however is apparently not uniform across the country. There are major hot spots, and there are areas which have relatively low rates of infection at this time. Quite likely we will see in India a pattern similar to that seen in the US over the past year, where different parts of the country peak at different times, with a period of months between regional peaks.

I'm not going to make any predictions of the eventual death rate in India, because we've seen how elsewhere in the world these sorts of predictions have usually been huge underestimates (e.g. the US has had many times the number of deaths the government there predicted).

However, we can say the situation in India is serious and needs to be taken seriously, and that it is entirely reasonable for India's friends in the world to send aid to them now when their need is at its greatest.

India has so far provided a great deal of vaccine to the rest of the world when they could have hoarded it all for themselves. It is only just that the rest of the world returns the favour now in whatever ways they can.
 
CFR (Case Fatality Rate) is a meaningless number in the context of a global pandemic. It's more a measure of how much testing is taking place rather than how many people are dying. The more tests are conducted, the lower the CFR and visa versa.

It's also going to be affected by what gets put on the death certificate. If there is limited testing then classification of deaths can be arbitrary and we don't necessarily get numbers comparable to those in other countries. This again makes relative CFR numbers fairly meaningless when comparing third world countries who are not doing things in comparable ways.

So with CFR we have a number where both the numerator and denominator are fairly arbitrary numbers in much of the world. It's only in countries with very extensive and well organised public health systems that can get reasonably good data, and most third world countries can't afford that.


This is an idea that a number of countries tried to comfort themselves with over the past year. "We have built up natural immunity so things won't be so bad in future". And then things got a lot worse anyway. Have a look at Brazil and the US as examples.


The thread of discussion started with someone stating that things can't be bad in India because the cumulative numbers were lower than in Mexico. I stated that things had been bad in Mexico, and while the cumulative numbers in India were much lower than in Mexico, the current numbers in India are twice as bad as Mexico had at their peak and it is the current situation we are talking about.

Just how accurate Mexico's and India's numbers are can be a subject for debate, but the real point is that the comparison of the Worldometers given does not support the claim that was made, and indeed a close look contracts the original interpretation made.


We are getting numerous credible news reports of hospitals overflowing with COVID-19 patients, oxygen shortages, and crematoria being overwhelmed. We may not be able to measure the exact scale of the problem, but it's clear that there is a major problem in India right now.

The problem however is apparently not uniform across the country. There are major hot spots, and there are areas which have relatively low rates of infection at this time. Quite likely we will see in India a pattern similar to that seen in the US over the past year, where different parts of the country peak at different times, with a period of months between regional peaks.

I'm not going to make any predictions of the eventual death rate in India, because we've seen how elsewhere in the world these sorts of predictions have usually been huge underestimates (e.g. the US has had many times the number of deaths the government there predicted).

However, we can say the situation in India is serious and needs to be taken seriously, and that it is entirely reasonable for India's friends in the world to send aid to them now when their need is at its greatest.

India has so far provided a great deal of vaccine to the rest of the world when they could have hoarded it all for themselves. It is only just that the rest of the world returns the favour now in whatever ways they can.
Provided? Or sold ? its only just they can buy some back . Have they paid for all the help they are getting now? They can obviously afford to .
 
What I have been reading in the news is that a lot of people are genuinely angry with Modi over his recent management of things, including allowing the big political rallies and religious festivals, the shortages of PPE and oxygen, and the general feeling that Modi made a mess of things while ignoring the people who were warning him about it.

I don't know Indian politics well enough to make a prediction, but the impression that I get is that Modi may have outlived his welcome and may be gone one way or another at the next election.

Morning @terminal,
Unhappy grumbling about Modi in this neck of the woods, from people who voted for him.
 

New Posts

Latest Threads

Top