Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by PartTimePongo, Jul 29, 2003.

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  1. Pentagon plans online terror bets

    The Pentagon is planning to set up an online trading market in which bets could be made about future terrorist attacks and other major political developments.
    The idea is to try to improve the prediction and prevention of events by using the expertise of the open market instead of relying on government agencies which have often failed in the past.

    One example used on the website set up for the programme is the possible overthrow of King Abdullah of Jordan.

    My predictions?

    A military overthrow of the current Iranian Government within 18 months
    A member of the House of Saud to be assasinated within 6 months
    Hamid Karzi will step down within 12 months
    Ahmed Chalibi to be announced as the first President of a "free Iraq" by Christmas.

    Right, there's me quid...... :D
  2. That's ridiculous, obviously they can't trust their own intel, so have resorted to "ask the audience." What's next phone are friend or 50:50???

    I'm glad to see that the congress is trying to stop this farce.
  3. Perhaps Bush/Blair want to make a mint out of insider trading..

    Fiver on conflict in Korea. :|
  4. They've decided to can it. Even Paul Wolfowitz was embarrassed by this POS! The whole thing is based on "Efficient Market Theory", in which the price of a share is taken to reflect all possibly available information at any given time (i.e. it must be right!). The flaw in the theory's pretty clear - if they reflect all available news, they must also reflect the equal or greater amount of available bullshit...BTW, the people in the best position to profit would of course be the terrorists...
  5. I like the appropiate use of Americanisms.

    These terrorist would of course be in the minority, unless when making a bet they asked if the said person was a member of al q or jihad, then may be they could give extra weight to those votes. Then may be, just may be they might have a chance of getting a good idea of what was going to happen.
  6. This could really work. Imagine what odds George Dubbya could get for a pre-emptive strike against the Icelandic Fundementalists.

    Maximum profit for minimum military losses and whose going to make a fuss about the spam's nuking Reykjavik
  7. I thought I'd heard on the world service that they were knocking this idea on the head?? yet the webiste is still there.

    Praise be to god for the inherant American sense of Corporate Social Responsibility, at least we can be sure there will be no insider trading on this one.

    Clearly as a government sponsored program there will be no need for any form of oversight.

    I 've put this weeks CIMIC grant down each way on North Korea within 3 years.
  8. Korea still favourite then :)

    What about Iran at 10:1 before 2005

    Bridlington 100:1 anytime :lol:

    Blast from the Past - Egypt as a fundamentalist state by 2007 - 5-2
  9. Well, one thing's certain - whoever places a winning bet, it won't be the CIA or MI6 - not on their current showing anyway...
  10. They wouldn't necessarily be in the minority - after all AlQ isn't known to be short of a bob. And you could bet against yourself to create disinfo (and perhaps lay it off on another market - you bet against the assassination of the King of Jordan on the spook market, but sell Jordanian govt bonds short (bet on them falling) on the ordinary stock market. Result - the terror-bookies notice nowt, you take a haircut on their market but recoup on the other.)