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If the West hadn't got involved in the Middle East...

#81
Some cultures just need a bit of a bastard in charge. The threat of an ASBO just isn't going to cut it with some people. Rather strange really - the Govt are now keen to demonstrate how civil rights and 'entitlements' don't count when / if you run to ISIS yet, we initially thought a very kinetic demonstration of "democracy" peace and love would change all of that.
 
#82
What would the World look like now?
If the Barbary States had not been the first group of Arab States to declare war on the newly independent United States?

You also seem to overlook the attempted Muslim invasion of Europe, and over three hundred years of slave raids by the Barbary pirates over most of Europe which some would say was pretty serious Middle Eastern meddling in the West.
 
#83
You also seem to overlook the attempted Muslim invasion of Europe, and over three hundred years of slave raids by the Barbary pirates over most of Europe which some would say was pretty serious Middle Eastern meddling in the West.
I don't.

There are plenty of places to vent anti Islam moonhowlery, this isn't supposed to be one.
 
W

Waldo76

Guest
#85
What would the World look like now?

I heard of China telling the US not to mess up their sphere of interest in the manner they messed up the ME. (I paraphrase slightly.)

Would the world be a better place?

Saddam would still be in power, committing wholesale slaughter but keeping the lid on a volatile country. Ditto Gaddafi, and if he'd still been in power the whole problem with mass refugee migration to Europe probably wouldn't have happened.

With the established leaders in place and unchallenged, would ISIS / AQ have flourished in the manner they have? Would we be seeing the wave of Islamist inspired terrorism?


Would it actually matter if AQ had taken power in Afghanistan? Human rights would have been out of the window in many of those places, but is the attempted imposition of Western mores on long established regimes actually the right thing to do?
In invading Kuwait Hussein made it easy for the US, during late 1990 early 1991 Bush must have been praying Hussein didn't withdraw his troops from Kuwait and he didn't disappoint did he. But on this occasion his brinkmanship failed on a scale he could never have envisaged. Personally I agreed with the first Gulf war, I think to eject Iraqi forces from Kuwait was the right course of action. However, the second war, the invasion of Iraq. I'm not so sure what it was all about, other than Bush Jr wanting regime change in Iraq of course.
 
#86
‘If ‘ such an overused word.

‘If' Saddam had not tried for nuclear weapons, ‘if' he had not used gas on his own people, ‘if’ he had not invaded Kuwait, ‘if’ he had not obstructed the UN inspectors.

Rather naval gazing and pointless thread really.
 
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#87
‘If ‘ such an overused word.

‘If' Saddam had not tried for nuclear weapons, ‘if' he had not used gas on his own people, ‘if’ he had not invaded Kuwait, ‘if’ he had not obstructed the UN inspectors.

Rather naval gazing and pointless thread really.
Then feel free to either start your own thread, or refrain from non commenting on this one.
 
#91
We were pretty rapidly hustled out of South Arabia/Aden in 1967. The successor government became a 'Peoples Republic' and eventually merged with North Yemen. The latter was never colonised. No colonisation yet Yemen seems to be having a fairly torrid time of things lately without the ability to blame anyone else for causing it(bar Saudis/Iran exacerbating things).

Imaging if Britain had Palestine as a mandate, but didn't draw up the BD, would the Holocaust not have caused a huge influx anyway? Zionists tried colonisation from late 19th century.

Big picture: Ottomans had control of the region for 4 centuries, UK/France for 4 decades, who has had the more lasting legacy of poor governance, little rule of law and economic stagnation? India is a shining example compared to most countries of ME.

Am I taking this discussion too seriously?
 
#92
‘If ‘ such an overused word.

‘If' Saddam had not tried for nuclear weapons, ‘if' he had not used gas on his own people, ‘if’ he had not invaded Kuwait, ‘if’ he had not obstructed the UN inspectors.

Rather naval gazing and pointless thread really.
Then feel free to either start your own thread, or refrain from non commenting on this one.
It was a direct comment on the relative pointlessness of this thread.
What ‘If’, 'If only’, ‘If’ we had done this or that. 'Current Affairs' is dealing with what is happening now.
I kind of sympathize with both sides of this argument. It is in essence a counterfactual history question, so doesn't really fit in the Current Affairs category (despite the link to what China said) nor does it quite fit into Analysis.

However, I do think that questions like this are worth considering and can provide some interesting insights and views. Because it involves speculating about long-term potential future outcomes if events had been different, I don't think it quite fits into the History category either. Maybe a new forum covering (serious-ish) "What If ..." scenarios would be useful?

The question is rather difficult to pin down as well. The "West" has been interfering in the Middle East in one form or another for a very long time, and vice versa. Neither GW1 nor GW2 occured in an economic, political and historical vacuum. Any action, or inaction, counts as interference on a global scale - should, for example, the West have decided to remove all economic sanctions from all ME countries?
 
#94
We are heading towards an obvious conclusion, which results from a key flaw in the Sykes-Picot planning, and our earlier Bliar folly in support of Bush in 2003. Following the kicking that Sadaam regularly gave the Kurds, and similar sentiment that successive Turkish rulers and Iranian oppression have offered the minority Kurdish populations in their countries, the Syrian civil war brought a new dynamic. Essentially the growth of Daesh had several roots, including the demonised Baathists of Sadaam's era, but its early domination in Northern Iraq and Syria followed other ME catalysts stemming from the Arab Spring.

The resultant battle successes against Daesh were predominantly led by the Kurdish Peshmerga (at least in Iraq after the Iraqi Army legged it back to Baghdad), whilst supported by various allies including the US and the UK. The chaos that emerged from Operation Iraqi Freedom, had also exposed a crucial geopolitical flaw in Sykes and Picot's plan (one amongst many), as the Kurds were previously stitched up after the Ottomans were defeated, and initially promised a chunk of Turkey in the original treaty of 1920, which was then snatched away by the Treaty of Lausanne three years later.
Sykes Picot Agreement | The Kurdish Project

The Arabs had also seen their own hopes dashed post war by the allies, reneging on Arab independence and autonomy after they'd given their support to defeat the Ottoman Empire (Days of Lawrence and all that). It's a century on from that divisive allied plan (i.e. principally engineered as an Anglo-French stitch up prior to the of end WW1), that's been compounded by the US / UK geopolitical folly creating kinetic mayhem in the region for 12+ years.

It's for certain that the Kurds will not let this go, not this time! They may even find the US is prepared to back their play, as Trump has his eye on ratcheting up the pressure on Iran, and a fairly strong alliance has been created with the Kurds who've proved their worth against Daesh. An independent Kurdish nation would provide a useful tactical base for US forces in the region.
Iraq parliament rejects Kurdish independence referendum
 
#95
What seems indisputable is that the ME does not need the West to find an excuse to have serious go at each other.

The thread’s creator need not do quite so much self flagellation...on our behalf.
 

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