If Iran gets the bomb

Discussion in 'Multinational HQ' started by Trip_Wire, Mar 2, 2007.

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  1. Trip_Wire

    Trip_Wire RIP

    A sort of tongue in cheek article!


    If Iran gets the bomb

    By Caroline B. Glick

    With the Bush administration now happily basking in the glory of positive coverage in The New York Times and enjoying the warm embrace of the James Baker/Brent Scowcroft wing of the Republican Party, it is hard to imagine that it will reconsider its decision to abandon the Bush Doctrine. That doctrine, named after President George W. Bush and most forcefully enunciated by him, eschewed appeasement of terror supporting, weapons of mass destruction proliferating enemies of the free world.

    Today, what Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice refers to as a "diplomatic initiative" aimed at appeasing terror supporting, and weapons of mass destruction proliferating Iran, and its terror supporting, and weapons of mass destruction proliferating Syrian colony is about to take off in Baghdad. So too, this week the US began normalizing its relations with the terror supporting, weapons of mass destruction proliferating Stalinist dictatorship in Pyongyang.

    Bush's traditional opponents are beside themselves with glee.

    With regard to North Korea, these opponents are quick to note that there has always been great uncertainty about the level to which Kim Jung Il has advanced in his illicit uranium enrichment program. With regard to Iran, in an interview with the Times, former congressman Lee Hamilton warned that the Bush administration had better not think that the negotiations with the mullahs will lead anywhere quickly.

    As the co-chairman of the Baker-Hamilton Iraq Study Group which last November called for the president to appease Teheran and Damascus by forcing Israel to surrender the Golan Heights and Judea and Samaria explained, negotiations with the mullahs have to be open ended. In his words, "You can't expect miracles here. There has to be a sustained effort. Successful diplomacy requires very careful preparation and very extensive follow-through."

    For his part, Hamilton's partner, former secretary of state James Baker ecstatically declared on Tuesday night, "America must be prepared to talk to our enemies."

    What is lacking from both the media's reportage of the Bush administration's strategic about-face, and the administration's traditional detractors' praise for that sudden turn is an analysis of the likely downside of appeasing the mullahs. For instance, on Wednesday the Times ran a report on North Korea under the heading, "US Concedes Uncertainty on North Korean Uranium Effort."

    The thrust of the article, which was based on interviews with administration sources, was that while North Korea's commitment to acquire nuclear weapons has never been in doubt, at no time has the US had certain knowledge of its actual capabilities. In light of the uncertainty relating to Pyongyang's capabilities, the Bush administration was wrong, — the Times' sources clucked — to have confronted it over its intentions.

    By the same token, those who applaud the administration's decision to engage the nuclear weapons-seeking mullahs in Teheran argue that the administration would be wrong to confront Teheran for its stated intention to "wipe Israel off the map," and to bring about "a world without America," since US intelligence services are incapable of bringing unequivocal information regarding the state of Iran's nuclear weapons program.

    Clearly there is something wrong with this analysis. If what is not in doubt is Iran's commitment to acquiring nuclear weapons, rather than base its policies on a best-case-scenario regarding Teheran's unknown capabilities, the US and its allies should be basing their policies on a calculation of the risks a nuclear armed Iran would constitute for global security.

    Broadly speaking there are three possible scenarios of how Iran would likely behave were it to become a nuclear power. In the most optimistic scenario, Iran would not attack Israel or any other country with its atomic arsenal, but would rather use it as an instrument of international and regional influence. In this scenario, Iran would reap economic advantage from its nuclear status by threatening oil shipping in the Persian Gulf and so jack up worldwide oil and gas prices. A massive economic dislocation in the oil consuming countries would no doubt ensue. In this state of affairs, all international economic sanctions against Iran would disappear and states would begin fighting with one another for the right to develop Iran's oil and gas fields and refining capabilities.

    Operating under Iran's nuclear umbrella, terror groups like Hizbullah and Al Qaida would feel free to attack at will throughout the world. The rates of terrorism - of both the organized and lone wolf variety — would increase exponentially throughout the world.

    Regionally, Iran would work to export its Khomeinist Shiite revolution. It would increase its interference in both Iraq and Afghanistan and so neutralize and defeat coalition and NATO efforts to stabilize those countries.

    As to Saudi Arabia, there can be little doubt that Iran would seek to foment an uprising of Saudi Shiites who happen to live as a repressed minority on top of the Saudi oil fields.

    Hizbullah's aim to overthrow the Siniora government in Lebanon would receive unprecedented Iranian assistance that would likely lead to the Shiite takeover of the country. So too, under the Iranian nuclear umbrella, Palestinian terrorism against Israel, and Syrian adventurism against Israel would rise steeply. The regimes in Egypt and Jordan as well as Saudi Arabia would be sunk into chaos, insurgency and war as they themselves entered a nuclear arms race the likes of which the world has never seen.

    In a moderate scenario, not only would all the events that would likely occur in a best-case scenario occur. Iran would also make indirect use of its nuclear arsenal. In this case, Iran would likely use one of its existing terror proxies in the Sinai, Gaza or Lebanon, or invent a new terror group in one or all of these areas. Iran would transfer one or more nuclear weapons to its terror group of choice, which would then attack Israel and cause the second Holocaust in seventy years. Iran would deny any connection to the attack although it would reap high praise on its perpetrators.

    While Iran's leaders from Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on down have expressed a willingness to endure an Israeli nuclear second-strike, judging from the way in which the Western policy elites are treating Iran today, the Iranians can have every expectation that there is every reason for the Iranians that they can wipe Israel off the map and pay no price for their aggression either from a destroyed Israel or from the US.

    The New York Times and its counterparts will likely note that there is no absolute certainty that Iran was behind the attack. Even the skimpiest Iranian denials or vague allegations against countries like Pakistan or Russia or "rogue" scientists from the former Soviet Union or Pakistan will likely be seized upon as a justification for not responding to the attack.

    Israel, it will be said, had it coming anyway, because it refused to negotiate with the "militants" from Hamas, preferring instead to maintain its "occupation" of the Golan Heights and Jerusalem.

    In the worst case scenario, not only would Iran implement the best case and the moderate case scenario. It would also widen its network of allies while neutralizing its competitors in the Muslim world in order to expand its exportation of the Khomeinist revolution worldwide. All this it would do in an effort to achieve its longstanding aim of destroying America. Here the Iranians would be operating under the reasonable assumption that Europe will be neutral in the conflict, and Russia and China would likely support them against the US — at least covertly.

    In this scenario, the Iranians would strengthen their alliances with America-haters in Latin America like Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez, Nicaraguan president Daniel Ortega and Cuban dictator Fidel Castro or his heirs. It could openly supply these countries with nuclear bombs or strengthen Hizbullah's foothold in South and North America. In the latter case, Iran could transfer nuclear weapons and delivery systems to its terror proxies and use these networks which include Hizbullah cells that are already active in the US to attack the US.

    Most brazenly, Iran could collaborate with its ally North Korea in developing intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of attacking US cities with nuclear weapons launched from Iran. At the same time, given the US's large nuclear arsenal and ICBM capabilities, it is less likely that the Iranians would attack the US directly.

    In light of this analysis it seems that in spite of the praise it is reaping from the policy jet-set, the Bush administration would do well to reexamine its new policy towards Iran. It should accept their criticism and revert to basing its policy toward the nuclear proliferating, terror-supporting rogue state on what is known rather than on what is unknown.

    Since Iran not only wants nuclear weapons, but has an active nuclear weapons program, the question that should be guiding policymakers is not whether Iran should be negotiated with, but rather, whether the US is willing to accept any of the likely scenarios of what will transpire if Iran does in fact acquire nuclear weapons. If the US is not willing to accept any of those scenarios, then it should be asking itself what must be done to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power.

    While Europe may be willing to sit on the sidelines of this fight, just as it sat on the sidelines of the Cold War, and did little to prevent the Nazi conquest of the continent in World War II, Israel has no such luxury. In light of this, it is deeply disturbing that this week the Olmert-Livni-Peretz government reacted to the US move towards appeasement by claiming that it will have no impact on Israel. Rather than trying to gloss over the dangers, Israel should be actively engaging the many forces in Washington and elsewhere who understand the dangers of a nuclear armed Iran.

    Together we should be working tirelessly to ratchet up support for a policy based on the understanding that the world cannot abide by a nuclear armed Iran.
  2. Nothing tongue in cheek about that, at all. It is Israeli propaganda being ratcheted up in preparation for the forthcoming conflict between Israel and Iran. I believe this one is going to end in war.
  3. in_the_cheapseats

    in_the_cheapseats LE Moderator

    If Iran get the bomb, we make friends! Cynical? Pragmatic?

    Moi? :biggrin:
  4. Just beat me to it.....

    There is zippo tongue-in-cheek about it.

    1. Best option - The sky is falling

    2. Worst option - The sky is falling

    She's calling your adminstration appeasers Trip , there's a faint whiff of an accusation of cowardice in the face of the preceived threat too.

    How odd, something that should have been done years ago, is now being tried, and I applaud the administration for that.

    But what do you expect from the JME of the Jerusalem Post , this article is dripping in barely disguised venom , and fury the USA hasn't glassed up Syria and Iran.
  5. If only she'd be a little more specific!
  6. Trip_Wire

    Trip_Wire RIP

    Yes, one can't question that the source is Jewish.

    Perhaps, I will be surprised by an attack on Iran, by the USA; however, I really can't believe that such an attack is in the immediate future.

    Should we have a plan on how to carry out such an attack and keep it currant? Yes, I sure do! I sure hope it is is a better plan then the one we used in Iraq, especially for after the attack.
  7. in_the_cheapseats

    in_the_cheapseats LE Moderator

    My bold - I don't know. You are being commanded by a cretin with a fundamentalist attitude who, if your article that you posted earlier on another thread is correct, is in charge of a population that believes they are going it along against the "bad guys".

    I really wouldn't put money against it.
  8. I don't think Iran would be a tangible threat to the world. They know fine well that a single strike on Israel would result in Iran being turned to glass. The fact stands that no nation has ever been invaded once it has gone nucular. It gives Iran peace of mind that it won't be invaded by the US. So the USA doesn't want to avert a world war - it wants to retain the ability to invade Tehran.
  9. Iran are in a very strong position since the USA capitulated over the N. Korean situation.

    However the USA can gain the upper hand by offering the same deal that was offered to Korea. Iran should have no reason to refuse this as they state that their Nuclear programme is purely for power generation and not manufacture of nuclear weapons.

    Refusal by Iran of any deals that would replace nuclear power could be seen by the US and Israel as Iranian attempts to manufacture nuclear weapons and as such the dialogue could and probably would become a little more aggressive.
  10. I actually missed that quote , the gobby little cnut. This is the second time in recent times this assertion has made my piss redline. Did little to prevent....

    So all those gravestones from the Belgian border back to Dunkirk, and along the A2, what are they then?

    Who was it declared War on Nazi Germany again? This would be the same Nazi Germany liquidating Jewish people wholesale. That's right you bigoted harridan, GREAT BRITAIN a country in EUROPE.

    Yes most continental countries capitulated, but their citizens came to our shores to get back into the fight. This arbitrary dismissal, much beloved of hard right-wing Israeli commentators just angers me. Where the hell did this woman learn history?

    Trip , please answer my observation. Is she, or is she not in your opinion calling your adminstration yellow in her opening paragraphs?
  11. Caroline B. Glick, also wrote:

    'How to win friends and influence people'

    'Diplomacy for beginners'

    'Viz Bumper book of shite'
  12. Trip_Wire

    Trip_Wire RIP


    Yellow? I guess it's how one thinks of the word's meaning, each individual may have a differnet view of what the word means. I didn't think it came through to me as calling Bush, etc. yellow.

    Critical of the new moves? Yes, very! Slanted towards their (jewish) policies and goals? You bet!
  13. in_the_cheapseats

    in_the_cheapseats LE Moderator

    It is a very different situation. Iran has friends - N Korea doesn't. Iran has an oil reserve and influence, N Korea has a few paddy fields. Iran, although you may not like to hear it, does have a degree of a democracy, votes in its leadership and has in the recent past, had student demonstrations against the government's current foreign policies. That's more than Saudi has, FFS!

    They may have a radical as PM at the moment but he can be voted out. If there was an attack on Iran, it would completely alienate everyone of an islamic temperment.

    If the US/Israel wants to up the anti, completely lose the chance of ever getting out of Iraq in reasonable order and of getting some of the oil without garrisoning the country, increase the islamic insurgent population by a factor of ten and guarentee the entire middle east falls into the abyss, then crack on.

    But don't say you haven't been told when things turn to shit.