I reckon we are due a population drop - only question is how

#61
While in once sense your answer is obviously correct, it is a finite planet, there are few indicators that we are anywhere near the tipping point. The biggest problem is probably the upsurge in simple minded fundamentalist religious belief, which tends to denigrate science and promote breeding like rabbits, but the evidence from data like the national census shows that once people become educated and for want of a better term 'Westernised' their breeding rate generally drops. The UK for example is currently not replacing it's population by breeding.

My bold Got to disagree with that, many parts of Africa & the M. East are already suffering from severe water shortages leading to deforestation & desertification. A lot of Asia & S. America is similarly seeing huge deforestation which is leading to problems. The population of much of those areas are growing unsustainably due to the moronic anti birth control of the 2 leading religions, Islam & Roman Catholicism.
Unless this changes and rapidly we will see yet ever increasing problems which due to ever increasing population mobility, the developed world be overwhelmed by tsunamis of incomers fleeing from those areas. We have seen the beginnings of this in the last decade or so but it will worsen!
 
#62
My money is on mass insanity (caused by constant exposure to social media) leading to a general breakdown of civil society.

That or a mass coronal ejection frying all the power grids in the world. Internet dies and so do all the snowflake brains.
 

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#63
Well he got that wrong just like everyone else who predicted doom like the ice caps melting and the seas rising etc.

The fact of the matter is none of the doom-sayers ever take into account man's ability to innovate and almost always exaggerate, because wilder predictions sell books. Overpopulation has been a consistent theme that's still pushed today by the same people who were pushing it in the 70s.

Imho we are far more likely to suffer a setback such as ebola becoming an airborne transmittable virus, nuclear war, being hit by an asteroid, etc than any of the environmental stuff.

My money would be on something nasty that wasn't treatable with antibiotics. This is a good little flash game called Pandemic Pandemic 2 - Kill Everyone in the World! where you get to invent your lurgi and set it on the world.
I regularly take my granddaughter to Winchester Science Centre. Last time, there was a machine in which you had to touch the screen to zap a microbe. But microbes grew faster than you could zap them, and they started to grow resistant. Every so often infrequently, a new antibiotic would be developed.
You'd stand there and smash the machine, but even my much nimbler-fingered son couldn't get beyond 2040 before we were swamped by antibiotic resistant microbes.
 
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#64
The Human Race is a tough, ingenious and ruthless species. It has survived considerable climatic and medical disasters in the past and can be expected to survive Global Warming................... just not all of them!
 
#65
James Lovelock: 'enjoy life while you can: in 20 years global warming will hit the fan'

Lovelock has been consistently correct with a few other future predictions. We're fucked.
About ten years or so then. All of that whisky isn't going to drink itself.
Well he got that wrong just like everyone else who predicted doom like the ice caps melting and the seas rising etc.
The article covers this side of him but...

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The 10 Hottest Global Years on Record

We're getting there, he can be a decade or so out, it's not much in the scheme of things. Could be an anomaly, I tend to doubt it.
 

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#66
......So are we overdue a dip in overall global population, and if so, how?
Mother Nature is in need of population reduction, hence global warming/climate change/whatever it is. Those that don't drown in the rising sea water will bake to a crisp in the rising heat. 10% survive to start over.
 
#69
Will you be around in 30 years time?
Because if you are I suspect you will witness the end of the mammals.
We are massively overpopulated already.
I'm trying hard but I will be 90, however where did you get the data to come up with that statement, because I'd need to read it and critique it before I believed it.
 
#70
That only works if you're OK with wiping out any animals, plants, insects or other organisms not directly necessary for human survival.
Plus it's just kicking the can & ignoring things such as water & energy.
Which is exactly what 99% of the human population will do. Personally I'd sterile every male at age 14 having allowed them to bank 20 shots and they'd be allowed just 2 kids maximum each, but that's not going happen.
 
#72
Well he got that wrong just like everyone else who predicted doom like the ice caps melting and the seas rising etc.

The fact of the matter is none of the doom-sayers ever take into account man's ability to innovate and almost always exaggerate, because wilder predictions sell books. Overpopulation has been a consistent theme that's still pushed today by the same people who were pushing it in the 70s.
You seem to have missed the last 15 years. The polar ice is melting, glaciers are retreating. It's a volume of frozen water that is turning into liquid water and will top up the sea level; it's not difficult to estimate how much the sea levels will go up. If anything, it seems the estimators of these things have underestimated the rate at which the polar ice is melting.

Besides that, the normal weather patterns are being disrupted. An error of a century or two is to be expected in such estimates, there is no empirical data on ******* up a planet that they can work from.
 
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#73
My bold Got to disagree with that, many parts of Africa & the M. East are already suffering from severe water shortages leading to deforestation & desertification. A lot of Asia & S. America is similarly seeing huge deforestation which is leading to problems.
The problem with some of the figures that justify these claims is that they include the man made impacts such as the collapse of Iraq as a farming country after the US invasion. I didn't say people won't try and **** the system up but the idea that 'we're doomed' includes a degree of hyperbole in the demand for funds and action. Now this hyperbole is possibly justified as the only way to get people to take notice, but I'm not convinced in it's final conclusion.
 
#76
The only thing that is going to make a difference for the UK is if, as Warming takes off, a Heinrich Event takes place and the Gulf Stream will be reduced cancelling out warming. I wouldn't bet on it, not that that's important, One of my Swiss pals always said that the British had a special God. Let's hope he's paying attention.

Makes one glad to be in the mid-seventies.
 
#77
My money is on mass insanity (caused by constant exposure to social media) leading to a general breakdown of civil society.

That or a mass coronal ejection frying all the power grids in the world. Internet dies and so do all the snowflake brains.
One can but dream...
 
#80
I read an article some years ago which put forward the idea that over-population was in part caused by the lack of major and World Wars and the eradication of diseases.
No disrespect intended to those who lost their lives in the two wars,
but they were the flower of manhood the breeding stock of their time and if they had all survived there would only be standing room now in this green and pleasant land. someone on here could work out three generations on what the figure would be.
 

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