I reckon we are due a population drop - only question is how

#41
Think how rapidly world population would be rising if there weren't these conflicts raging.
Agreed. We need WW3. Trouble is all the decent soldiers would be killed and we'd be left with a world run by lezzers, vegans, snowflakes, fundamentalists and Mumsnet.

Sadly.

OZ
 
#43
When the last antibiotics stop working.

The developed world will collapse and the undeveloped world will have no one left to artificially sustain them.
 
#44
There is a good book by Stephen Webb which provides 75 possible answers to the Fermi Paradox.

The snappily titled:

If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens . . . WHERE IS EVERYBODY?: Seventy-Five Solutions to the Fermi Paradox and the Problem of Extraterrestrial Life


Although many of the solutions are terminal in very unpleasant ways (gamma ray bursts, collision with a pea sized black hole, local supernova etc) many of them could result in serious depopulation if they were on a smaller scale. Bacterial/viral infection, asteroid/comet impact, runaway nanotechnology, nuclear war, global warming going greenhouse, Yellowstone caldera popping off etc etc).

Take your pick.
 

AlienFTM

MIA
Book Reviewer
#45
There is a good book by Stephen Webb which provides 75 possible answers to the Fermi Paradox.

The snappily titled:

If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens . . . WHERE IS EVERYBODY?: Seventy-Five Solutions to the Fermi Paradox and the Problem of Extraterrestrial Life


Although many of the solutions are terminal in very unpleasant ways (gamma ray bursts, collision with a pea sized black hole, local supernova etc) many of them could result in serious depopulation if they were on a smaller scale. Bacterial/viral infection, asteroid/comet impact, runaway nanotechnology, nuclear war, global warming going greenhouse, Yellowstone caldera popping off etc etc).

Take your pick.
Yoohoo
 
#46
Can't remember her callsign, but, if that screeching banshee that's had umpteen logins gets her clopper out, probably the end of mankind as we know it.
 
#47
While in once sense your answer is obviously correct, it is a finite planet, there are few indicators that we are anywhere near the tipping point. The biggest problem is probably the upsurge in simple minded fundamentalist religious belief, which tends to denigrate science and promote breeding like rabbits, but the evidence from data like the national census shows that once people become educated and for want of a better term 'Westernised' their breeding rate generally drops. The UK for example is currently not replacing it's population by breeding.
Will you be around in 30 years time?
Because if you are I suspect you will witness the end of the mammals.
We are massively overpopulated already.
 

napier

LE
Moderator
Kit Reviewer
#48
Antibiotic resistant infections are the way to go. A Third World War would help numbers along nicely. The resultant damage to the food chain and/or nuclear winter, tsunamis and radiation poisoning will take care of a lot of the surplus population.

A breakdown in civil capabilities such as hospitals and law enforcement will nibble a few more away. Clouds of radiation on a world tour should help to spread the love to countries initially unaffected by the nuclear exchange.
1550497466553.png
 
#50
I've recently read somewhere the theory that the world will hit a population high of about 8 or 9 billion and then level off as most of the worlds population would be pretty developed and start having smaller families such as most of the west and far east.

China has started to hit that place (canceling of the one child policy) but in heinlein's 1960s ideas china was going to keep increasing in population for ever.

The wild card is wether some certain parts of the world ever be developed!

Sent from my SM-G920F using Tapatalk
 
#51
No because: -
There are huge areas of the planet that are not currently farmed effectively that could be.
That only works if you're OK with wiping out any animals, plants, insects or other organisms not directly necessary for human survival.
Plus it's just kicking the can & ignoring things such as water & energy.
 
#52
I've recently read somewhere the theory that the world will hit a population high of about 8 or 9 billion and then level off as most of the worlds population would be pretty developed and start having smaller families such as most of the west and far east.

China has started to hit that place (canceling of the one child policy) but in heinlein's 1960s ideas china was going to keep increasing in population for ever.

The wild card is wether some certain parts of the world ever be developed!

Sent from my SM-G920F using Tapatalk
When I first became interested in this in 1967 we were at 2.4 billion. At the time 500 million was considered optimum to ensure survival against another Spanish 'flu or similar but allow all the other mammal, insects, plants and all the bio diversity we need to survive.
We are at 7.5 to 8 billion today.
By 2024 we will hit 10 billion.
By 2030 we will hit 15 billion which is twice what we are today.
By then it will be far too late to stop our eradication.
 
#53
#54
When I first became interested in this in 1967 we were at 2.4 billion. At the time 500 million was considered optimum to ensure survival against another Spanish 'flu or similar but allow all the other mammal, insects, plants and all the bio diversity we need to survive.
We are at 7.5 to 8 billion today.
By 2024 we will hit 10 billion.
By 2030 we will hit 15 billion which is twice what we are today.
By then it will be far too late to stop our eradication.
For accuracy: it was 3.47bn in 1967. it was 2.4bn around the end of WW2.
 
#57
The World Might Actually Run Out of People
The 2 authors of Empty Planet reckon better education & choices are already kicking in, plus all the doomsaying is based on poor UN models
“In roughly three decades, the global population will begin to decline,” they write. “Once that decline begins, it will never end.”
 
#58
James Lovelock: 'enjoy life while you can: in 20 years global warming will hit the fan'

Lovelock has been consistently correct with a few other future predictions. We're fucked.
For decades, his advocacy of nuclear power appalled fellow environmentalists - but recently increasing numbers of them have come around to his way of thinking. His latest book, The Revenge of Gaia, predicts that by 2020 extreme weather will be the norm, causing global devastation; that by 2040 much of Europe will be Saharan; and parts of London will be underwater.

Well he got that wrong just like everyone else who predicted doom like the ice caps melting and the seas rising etc.

The fact of the matter is none of the doom-sayers ever take into account man's ability to innovate and almost always exaggerate, because wilder predictions sell books. Overpopulation has been a consistent theme that's still pushed today by the same people who were pushing it in the 70s.

Imho we are far more likely to suffer a setback such as ebola becoming an airborne transmittable virus, nuclear war, being hit by an asteroid, etc than any of the environmental stuff.

My money would be on something nasty that wasn't treatable with antibiotics. This is a good little flash game called Pandemic Pandemic 2 - Kill Everyone in the World! where you get to invent your lurgi and set it on the world.
 
#59
Personally I think it will be an event such as Krakatoa or Yellowstone erupting. The planet shrouded in dust with the ensuing chaos and lack of food due too arable farming collapsing.

Survival of the fittest. Those guys with the underground hydroponic systems will be everyone's best mate.
 
#60
Agreed. We need WW3. Trouble is all the decent soldiers would be killed and we'd be left with a world run by lezzers...

OZ

I know what the reality would be, but right now I've got an image in my head of how that would work, and - damn it - a man can dream, can't he?...
 

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