How Your US Navy Career Ends....On TV!

Auld-Yin

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He's gone

I doubt he will be missed by anyone. I think he is a bigger cock than the Captain. I also think the Pentagon should be having a close look at the senior officers advising Modly, especially the one who stood beside him when Capt C was sacked.
 
I doubt he will be missed by anyone. I think he is a bigger cock than the Captain. I also think the Pentagon should be having a close look at the senior officers advising Modly, especially the one who stood beside him when Capt C was sacked.
Tbh it sounds like modley went rogue on this one.

Crozier may yet be back in the salty sea dog game.
 

Auld-Yin

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Tbh it sounds like modley went rogue on this one.

Crozier may yet be back in the salty sea dog game.
Maybe Modly went out in a limb but the press conf where he announced the sacking he had a VSO naval chappie in uniform and row after row of medal ribbons who backed up the acting Naval Secy, standing with him.
 
Sounds like Modley out trumped Trump!
 
I doubt he will be missed by anyone. I think he is a bigger cock than the Captain. I also think the Pentagon should be having a close look at the senior officers advising Modly, especially the one who stood beside him when Capt C was sacked.
CNO advised against the sacking, but was over-ruled.
 
As I understand it.

Modley flew (8,000 miles) to the carrier, addressed the crew and as good as called the former co a c*nt, then a recording of the speech was leaked.

The emporer has excelled himself with this one.
Without wishing ill on anyone, I will be interested in Mr Modleys future health.
 
CNO advised against the sacking, but was over-ruled.
So went against advice of CNO and slagged off the captain ? My word. His purple sulphurousness has been at work.
 
So went against advice of CNO and slagged off the captain ? My word. His purple sulphurousness has been at work.
And flew 8,000 miles to do it...

And suggested that the skipper was naive for sending an official memo that was LEAKED to the press via the medium of a speech to 5,000 disgruntled sailors...

Emperor Mong. I salute you! :salut:

I can only assume that after the ignoring of advice from CNOs, they just 'went with the flow' when he suggested such a move.
 
Iirc modly said that he believed Trump would want the skipper sacked...
he actually said that Trump sacked the last SecNav for getting it wrong when there was bad publicity involving the USN.

and then flew half-way around the world to tell the TR's crew (who had cheered and clapped their CO off) that their previous CO was stupid, and they were not to love him.
 
And flew 8,000 miles to do it...

And suggested that the skipper was naive for sending an official memo that was LEAKED to the press via the medium of a speech to 5,000 disgruntled sailors...

Emperor Mong. I salute you! :salut:

I can only assume that after the ignoring of advice from CNOs, they just 'went with the flow' when he suggested such a move.
Incredible. Did he think he was talking to untruly teenage staff at a corner shop or summat ?
 
and then flew half-way around the world to tell the TR's crew (who had cheered and clapped their CO off) that their previous CO was stupid, and they were not to love him.
You can't teach that sort of management.

Why wouldn't they listen to a political wonk and immediately adore him with respect, over one of their own.

I'm guessing that there are some serious conversations occuring in the pentagon about this little cluster f*ck.
 
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he actually said that Trump sacked the last SecNav for getting it wrong when there was bad publicity involving the USN.

and then flew half-way around the world to tell the TR's crew (who had cheered and clapped their CO off) that their previous CO was stupid, and they were not to love him.
and did it after Trump had said on national TV ‘I think the Captain was wrong, but he’s a good man and I don’t think this should harm his career’

Mobley was not so much tone deaf as stone deaf, and clearly a spiteful bully who just couldn’t let it go.
 
This is all getting quite offtopic, but:

One of the issues here is that modelling has some serious weaknesses in the way it is currently being used. The basic problem is that all elements of the equation are unknown, and therefore trying to run the whole equation is of limited use. You end up making an assumption or taking a piece of data to use as one of the core values (e.g. serial interval - how soon after A is infected does B become infected), but because all values are unknown, that changes the value of the others (e.g. the R0 and incubation period).

The solution to that is to, separately, get some hard numbers on the core values, but due to testing inadequacies, different policies, and difference in reporting levels (and trust in reporting), that hasn't happened yet. As a result, these models are being based on some of the earliest reported data, which is limited or unreliable.

The solution in that paper is effectively to replace a lot of the core values with median or mean values from the information currently available, which is a perfectly valid way to model when you don't have any other information (we don't) but it's still simply giving you the least inaccurate figure you are capable of at the moment, which doesn't mean it is anywhere near accurate. I'm also skeptical of papers like that which are one-stop shop full analyses and solutions. At this stage, they are likely to both be wrong (or produce an unusefully wide range) or they are selling something. Additionally, the problem here is that the prescription changes the analysis: if their app is successful, their model will change.

So, in short, I wouldn't draw any individual data points from that article - that isn't what they are trying to do, and their individual values are placeholders that are likely to be inaccurate.

What is required (and is also happening) is a lot of small-scale, controlled studies to establish the core values for the disease: R0; serial; incubation; % asymptomatic; % presymptomatic transmission. You can then use those more reliable core values to build a reliable model. Trying to do it the other way around isn't totally worthless - it gives planners a range of values rather than no information at all, which is useful - but you have to acknowledge that the range produced is very, very wide and is nowhere near to the finished product.

The other thing which is required, and doesn't seem to be happening (or published publicly), is matching your models or values to the observed data as it comes in, and seeing which one(s) are correct. You can also use that to establish which values or models are accurate.

PS I cited the 50% value, for the moment, because it is the median of the reported studies which are (basically) saying it's between 0 and 100...in fact, between 20% and 80%, but that's the same median. As above, that's not to say the number is 50%, it's saying 50% is the best guess to use for that value that we have today.
I believe @amazing__lobster has been invited to do some modelling and stuff.
 
I have kinda mixed views on this. Listening to Modley's tannoy announcement in full on that leaked recording there were parts that you couldn't argue with. If the Captain decides to bypass the system and go to the Press, and that's ok, then it's a free for all to every bugger on the ship with a grievance to do the same without any comeback.
 
I have kinda mixed views on this. Listening to Modley's tannoy announcement in full on that leaked recording there were parts that you couldn't argue with. If the Captain decides to bypass the system and go to the Press, and that's ok, then it's a free for all to every bugger on the ship with a grievance to do the same without any comeback.
I thought the memo was leaked to the press?
 

rampant

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I have kinda mixed views on this. Listening to Modley's tannoy announcement in full on that leaked recording there were parts that you couldn't argue with. If the Captain decides to bypass the system and go to the Press, and that's ok, then it's a free for all to every bugger on the ship with a grievance to do the same without any comeback.
The Captain didn't go to the press, he did however send his letter to as many people in the higher echelons of the Navy as he could think of.

He didn't talk to the press or leak the letter, somebody else did, but I'm certain that Crozier was well aware that was going to happen as he drew up his mailing list.
 
The Captain didn't go to the press, he did however send his letter to as many people in the higher echelons of the Navy as he could think of.

He didn't talk to the press or leak the letter, somebody else did, but I'm certain that Crozier was well aware that was going to happen as he drew up his mailing list.
No he didn't. Interestingly, despite the media briefs by the now fired ASecNav, the USN has not released the distribution list for the original letter. You'd think if it was slam-dunk case, they would've already...
 

Mr Happy

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I'm guessing that there are some serious conversations occuring in the pentagon about this little cluster f*ck.
Oh I suspect the army, navy, marines and CG will all be sniggering into their respective beers and trying to work out how to get a bit more budget for 2021...
 

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