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Ukraine How will the Ukraine war end?

How will the Ukraine war end?

  • Rebels win,Eastern Ukraine goes independent

    Votes: 159 35.3%
  • Putin invades Kiev, NATO doesn't move

    Votes: 134 29.8%
  • Putin invades Kiev, NATO fights Russia

    Votes: 35 7.8%
  • Rebels lose, Ukraine stays united

    Votes: 122 27.1%

  • Total voters
    450
Ex-Ukrainian president offers to mediate with pro-Russian rebels
Yanukovitch has raised his ugly head again. He wants to keep Ukraine united. Presumably under his or another puppets leadership. As he's currently on trial (in absentia) for treason I doubt his efforts will be warmly welcomed by the current Ukraine govt:
“I will do everything possible, everything that depends on me to stop the war ... to bring the two sides to the negotiating table,” Yanukovich told a news conference in Moscow.

He said he planned to offer his help to the European Union, the United States, Russia and the United Nations in the hope that he could facilitate direct talks.

“The main thing is ... to unite (the) Donbass (region) with Ukraine, to maintain the integrity of the Ukrainian state,” he said.
He also doesn't know anything about a plump breasted speckled pigeon:
Yanukovich also commented on his ties to Paul Manafort, U.S. President Donald Trump’s embattled former campaign manager.

Manafort has been charged in the United States with conspiring to launder money, lying on his tax returns and failing to register as a foreign agent for lobbying work for Yanukovich’s party, among other charges.

Yanukovich said he had never signed off on payments to Manafort for his work as an adviser to him and his party.

“I did not sign off on any payments for his work and never discussed the subject with him,” Yanukovich said.
 
Leopard not changing his spots. Gazprom (Russia) blocks gas to Ukraine whilst temperatures are still freezing:

Ukraine schools shut after Russia cuts gas
As noted in the news story the dispute is over money and the gas has been cut off three times before, starting in 2006. I suspect this one will go back into court but that Gazprom will not be able to get the contract cancelled. However, the contract expires next year anyway.

Ukraine has been taking advantage their position in the middle of the Soviet era pipeline network so that Gazprom has to deal with them. Gazprom's long term plan however is to build new pipelines which go direct to western Europe while bypassing Ukraine and Poland. That cuts those countries out of the loop in terms of being in control of the pipelines, as well as in terms of collecting transit fees. A significant chunk of Ukraine's foreign exchange earnings comes from the transit fees, so they are desperate to not lose that.

The latest dispute before a Swedish arbitration panel (not a court) had claims by Naftogaz (Ukraine) demanding $16 billion in transit fees, and claims by Gazprom for Naftogaz not buying gas they had contracted for. It sounds like they split the difference on the competing claims.

The Ukrainian pipeline company Naftogaz more than doubled the transit fees they charge Gazprom, and so Gazprom wants to terminate shipping gas via Ukraine by 2020, or at least drastically reduce the volumes in favour of other routes.

There's a very interesting (relatively speaking) study by Oxford University on the transit of Russian gas to Europe across Ukraine here: https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/...s-Transit-Across-Ukraine-Post-2019-NG-105.pdf

A senior Gazprom executive said that under no circumstances would Gazprom renew the existing gas transit arrangements with Naftogaz across Ukraine.
This argument was expressed most colourfully by Gazprom deputy CEO, Alexander Medvedev, in June 2015: he said that “under no circumstances”, even “if the sun will replace the moon”, will Gazprom enter into a transit contract with Naftogaz after 2019.

The Russian government told Gazprom to back down from that position, so now Gazprom said they will transit some gas across Ukraine, but not under the current "unprofitable, unfair, unacceptable" terms and conditions. Gazprom doesn't want to deal with Naftogaz because of what they see as Naftogaz's price gouging, but the Russian government knows that bypassing Ukraine entirely isn't realistic given the time left under the current contract to find alternatives.
In the summer of 2015 the Russian leadership changed its view on post-2019 transit, apparently having recognised the seriousness of political, regulatory and contractual limitations on Gazprom’s ability to end transit via Ukraine by that date. President Putin ordered Gazprom to carry out negotiations on a possible new transit contract with Naftogaz which would replace the existing transit contract upon expiry.

Putin’s statement was significant as it suggested a direct political intervention aimed at improving the gas relationship with Ukraine. Putin’s position was soon echoed by Miller, who said that there could be a new transit contract, but not on “unprofitable, unfair, unacceptable”
terms.

The main future alternative to transit through Ukraine has been the Nord Stream 2 pipeline under the Baltic. This is backed by German interests who want to cut out the middlemen, but opposed by Ukraine, Poland, and some other eastern European countries who stand to lose billions in transit fees. The Nord Stream 1 pipeline is already running and taking gas direct from Russia to Germany.

What we're seeing here in this case though is simply business negotiations, ex-Soviet style.
 
Also, contract to transition of gas throw Ukraine will be finished too, looks like before the summer. So, Ukraine without gas transit became not interesting for EU, and Russia get it back almost peaceful way.
 
Ukraine's Savchenko goes on hunger strike over detention
Savchenko on another hunger strike. This time it's not about the Russian unlawful detention but about detention by her own govt. Allegedly she's plotted/ing a coup. Admits wanting to overthrow the current leadership but not plotting a coup:
Speaking at a televised pre-trial hearing to determine the terms of her arrest, Savchenko said she would protest her treatment the same way she did her imprisonment in Russia.

“I will go on a hunger strike from today and again show all the unbelievers,” she said. “I will show the Ukrainian people what a hero is.”

She wore a black t-shirt with a trident motif - a national symbol in Ukraine - similar to her outfit while standing trial in Russia.
Court to decide whether to let her out or keep her detained later today. I find it hard to consider her a Manchurian candidate, but stranger things and all that:
In 2016, President Petro Poroshenko conferred on Savchenko the country’s highest honour, “Hero of Ukraine.” But on Thursday he suggested her alleged coup plot was a Russia-led special operation to destabilise Ukraine.

“All this is another reminder that a large-scale hybrid war is being waged against Ukraine,” he said in a post on Facebook.

Later on Friday, the court is expected to decide whether to release Savchenko pending trial or keep her in detention.
 
Russian, Austrian FMs discuss peacekeeping mission in Ukraine - RIA
Lavrov has been speaking with his Austrian couterpart about getting a UNSC Resolution to protect the OSCE SMM's:
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Friday after meeting his Austrian counterpart Karin Kneissl that they had discussed the possibility of the deployment of a peacekeeping mission in east Ukraine, the RIA news agency reported.

Lavrov was quoted as saying “we examined the role played by the OSCE in carrying out the Minsk accords, and the possibility of strengthening this role through the adoption of a United Nations Security Council resolution to guard the OSCE special monitoring mission.”
 
Full Report: Russian Officers and Militants Identified as Perpetrators of the January 2015 Mariupol Artillery Strike - bellingcat
I haven’t seen this posted so apologies if it has. Undoubtedly it will be denied in certain quarters but Bellingcat report on the artillery fire on Mariupol in 2015. Unsurprisingly, they name Russians being responsible for the death of 29 civilians and wounding of 90:
A joint investigation between Bellingcat and McClatchy DC has determined the identities of eleven men, including nine Russian commanders and officers of the Russian Armed Forces, in the 24 January 2015 artillery attack on Mariupol, which killed at least 29 civilians and wounded more than 90. Earlier this week, we published a summary of our findings in this investigation, including the names of the eleven identified individuals tied to the incident. This artillery attack struck densely-populated segments in the northeastern section of Mariupol due to inaccurate use of multiple rocket launch rocket system (MLRS) fire. Our investigation used materials submitted by Ukraine as part of an International Court of Justice (ICJ) case, which were made available to a small group of investigators, including Bellingcat and McClatchy DC. We verified and analyzed these ICJ materials by conducting in-depth open source research to identify the individuals and circumstances described in this evidence.

Full report here: https://www.bellingcat.com/wp-conte...he-January-2015-Mariupol-Artillery-Strike.pdf
 
Ukraine suspends consul in Germany for alleged anti-semitic posts
A Ukrainian diplomat in Germany has been suspended and could be recalled, Ukraine’s foreign ministry said on Monday, following reports the consul had posted anti-Semitic content on social media.
MFA checks information on anti-Semitic statements of Consul of Ukraine in Hamburg
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is checking information on anti-Semitic statements made by the Consul of Ukraine in Hamburg.
blogger Anatoly Shariy said that ... Vasyl Marushynets, posted anti-Semitic publications on his Facebook page.
among the posts of Marushynets one can see such anti-Semitic posts as "Jews proclaimed the war against Germany in 1934", "God, punish Jews", "Babi Yar. Not in Moscow in 1941, but in Ukraine in 1918 -1941, ""Jews - s**t
Ukraine’s consul in Hamburg investigated for xenophobic Facebook posts | KyivPost
A person who looks like Vasyl Marushynets smiles holding a cake with the words “60 Mein Kampf,”
 
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