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How will the Ukraine war end?

How will the Ukraine war end?

  • Rebels win,Eastern Ukraine goes independent

    Votes: 84 49.7%
  • Putin invades Kiev, NATO doesn't move

    Votes: 47 27.8%
  • Putin invades Kiev, NATO fights Russia

    Votes: 10 5.9%
  • Rebels lose, Ukraine stays united

    Votes: 28 16.6%

  • Total voters
    169
Only one thing would undermine support for Ukraine in the West - new government that is ready to cooperate with Moscow, that is ready to resolve internal conflicts through negotiations.
Former president of foreign country has been voided Ukrainian citizenship and expelled. Big deal. It will not be noticed in Western capitals. There is no freedom of speech in Ukraine, Communist party is officially forbidden. Who cares in the West? Even open dictatorship would be regarded in the West merely as internal matter. Though, of course the West prefers falsified 'elections' as a façade.
As for mr.Tuka then it is my mistake. He is indeed merely deputy minister, not vice PM.
Though he sounded something that other representatives of ruling elite prefer not to disclose.
I suppose it shows that Ukraine is finally starting to throw off that Soviet yoke. After all, under their eastern neighbour he'd likely be shot or falsely convicted of a crime so that he couldn't run for office. I don't agree with their actions but why you believe returning to or even remaining with a system run by 'corrupt thieves' as you call them i.e. Putin and co, rather than moving away from such a system can be anything but beneficial for Ukraine?
 
I suppose it shows that Ukraine is finally starting to throw off that Soviet yoke. After all, under their eastern neighbour he'd likely be shot or falsely convicted of a crime so that he couldn't run for office. I don't agree with their actions but why you believe returning to or even remaining with a system run by 'corrupt thieves' as you call them i.e. Putin and co, rather than moving away from such a system can be anything but beneficial for Ukraine?
My answer is simple.
Our life is heavily dependent on economy. Politics is something secondary. With good economic environment and as a result high living standards people as a rule don't care about politics as in the Emirates for example. Living standards in Russia are no less 3 times higher than in Ukraine. So, many in Russia (probably majority) in fact don't care about current power of crooks and thieves. Yes, they use to steal but not everything. The people have their good share.
By contrast living standards in Ukraine can be described by one word - a catastrophe. In this context power of local crooks and thieves is not accepted by the people. For this reason Ukraine is much more politized than Russia. Russia is more or less selfsufficient country while Ukraine needs economic partners just to survive. There are two alternatives:
- assosiation with the EU with hope to join it. It is a unviable variant, proved to be just a fantasy.
- restoration of economical ties with Russia. It is something realistic.
I hope that step by step structure of ruling elites in Russia will change and with low level of corruption Russia would be a good model for Ukraine. I believe that we eventually will live together again in a big strong common state.
 
My answer is simple.
Our life is heavily dependent on economy. Politics is something secondary. With good economic environment and as a result high living standards people as a rule don't care about politics as in the Emirates for example. Living standards in Russia are no less 3 times higher than in Ukraine. So, many in Russia (probably majority) in fact don't care about current power of crooks and thieves. Yes, they use to steal but not everything. The people have their good share.
By contrast living standards in Ukraine can be described by one word - a catastrophe. In this context power of local crooks and thieves is not accepted by the people. For this reason Ukraine is much more politized than Russia. Russia is more or less selfsufficient country while Ukraine needs economic partners just to survive.
In a nutshell, you don't care how corrupt those in charge are, so long as you (Jack) are okay?
There are two alternatives:
- assosiation with the EU with hope to join it. It is a unviable variant, proved to be just a fantasy.
You say the same above and yet Serbia is looking.
- restoration of economical ties with Russia. It is something realistic.
Of course, withdraw your troops from Donbass, free and internationally monitored referendum in Crimea, pay war reparations and it'll be fine :)
I hope that step by step structure of ruling elites in Russia will change and with low level of corruption Russia would be a good model for Ukraine. I believe that we eventually will live together again in a big strong common state.
Irrespective of what the Ukrainians want?
 
1) In a nutshell, you don't care how corrupt those in charge are, so long as you (Jack) are okay?

2) You say the same above and yet Serbia is looking.

3) Of course, withdraw your troops from Donbass, free and internationally monitored referendum in Crimea, pay war reparations and it'll be fine :)

4) Irrespective of what the Ukrainians want?
1) No, for me personally, corruption of ruling elites is the main problem in Russia.
2) For Serbia membership in the EU is the best option. For the EU and the West it would be better to revoke recognition of Kosovo as an independent state.
3) Result of such a referendum is easily predictable. Vast majority will vote for Russia. For this reason Kiev authorities that are well aware about real situation never proposed such a referendum. As for Donbas then elections first. Let's people say - what do they want.
4) No, namely Ukrainians have to decide their future. It is their choice.
 
1) No, for me personally, corruption of ruling elites is the main problem in Russia.
You said so long as the economy is fine, nobody cares. Which is it?
2) For Serbia membership in the EU is the best option. For the EU and the West it would be better to revoke recognition of Kosovo as an independent state.
That's not how the EU see it. They're talking about Serbia reaching a compromise with Kosovo. Not necessarily recognising it. If it's good for Serbia, why not Ukraine?
3) Result of such a referendum is easily predictable. Vast majority will vote for Russia. For this reason Kiev authorities that are well aware about real situation never proposed such a referendum. As for Donbas then elections first. Let's people say - what do they want.
If it's so predictable, why not go for it. Solve the problem once and for all?
4) No, namely Ukrainians have to decide their future. It is their choice.
It is, so withdraw your forces from the Donbas and let the Crimean's decide under international observation.
 
1) You said so long as the economy is fine, nobody cares. Which is it?

2) That's not how the EU see it. They're talking about Serbia reaching a compromise with Kosovo. Not necessarily recognising it. If it's good for Serbia, why not Ukraine?

3) If it's so predictable, why not go for it. Solve the problem once and for all?

4) It is, so withdraw your forces from the Donbas and let the Crimean's decide under international observation.
1) Because it is my private opinion. I care about political situation in Russia and strongly dislike thieving ruling elites. But general public is not so concerned. Many are fooled, brainwashed by Putin's agitprop. Many just don't care as their living standards are not so bad.
2) Serbia likely will be a new 'lame' EU member that needs donations (not from the UK thanks to Brexit). There is a queue of other Balkan new 'lame' members. It will be a big burden especially taking into account that some old members as Greece are also 'lame'. The EU is unable to swallow such a big extremely 'lame' country as Ukraine.
3) Kiev authorities and the West should propose to conduct such a referendum. Without such a proposition it is impossible.
4) I have to repeat. First and the most important thing is will of the people. Let people say. Agree to elections in Donbass under international control to elect lawful local representatives to have a recognised side in negotiations about peaceful settlement. As for Crimea then look at #3.
 
1) Because it is my private opinion. I care about political situation in Russia and strongly dislike thieving ruling elites. But general public is not so concerned.
So it is a case of "I'm alright Jack" for the majority according to you?
Many are fooled, brainwashed by Putin's agitprop. Many just don't care as their living standards are not so bad.
Indeed, both you, YarS and others push the Kremlin line.
2) Serbia likely will be a new 'lame' EU member that needs donations (not from the UK thanks to Brexit). There is a queue of other Balkan new 'lame' members. It will be a big burden especially taking into account that some old members as Greece are also 'lame'. The EU is unable to swallow such a big extremely 'lame' country as Ukraine.
Time will tell Sergey, especially if Russia lets them make up their own minds.
3) Kiev authorities and the West should propose to conduct such a referendum. Without such a proposition it is impossible.
Why? As you believe it is a 'fait accompli' and the original was held at the end of a barrel, what are you scared of?
4) I have to repeat. First and the most important thing is will of the people.
It'd be nice if Russia left the Ukraine alone then.
Let people say. Agree to elections in Donbass under international control to elect lawful local representatives to have a recognised side in negotiations about peaceful settlement. As for Crimea then look at #3.
How about implementing Minsk 2 first? UN troops on the internationally recognised border. Withdrawal of all armed forces.
 
I strongly suspect that previous and current Ukrainian ruling elites were (are) corrupted. As for your article then it contains mainly allegations. For exampe

Or maybe of the people closely linked to the current regime. Who knows?
Well, as you yourself have written the previous elites were corrupt, and in previous posts you keep reminding us how corrupt Ukraine was and still is. So the allegations are more than likely true.

And yes, Ukraine is still corrupt but when I last looked at the recent indices it's improved slightly since Yanukovych, fled though not by much.
 
Further developments in the Saakashvili affair have emerged.
Deported Saakashvili vows to fight Ukraine government from exile
Mikhail Saakashvili has vowed to continue to fight against Poroshenko from outside Ukraine.
"Poroshenko believes that he has beaten off the opponent whom he is fearful of the most. He falsified a case against me and threw me out of the country," said the 50-year-old opposition leader.
He said he will bring down the Ukrainian oligarchy (presumably this includes Poroshenko) and send them to prison.
"We will wring the neck of the Ukrainian oligarchy. They will be sent to prison, where they belong. I promise this."
He said he intends to head back to Kiev, but it is not clear at this time how he will do so since the Ukrainian security apparatus forcibly expelled him from the country for his criticism of the leadership.
Addressing Ukraine's "idiots" at today's press conference, he vowed to recover his passport and head back to Kiev.

"I will be almost as efficient in Europe over the next few weeks as I used to be in Ukraine," he said, and then switched into the third person.

"Saakashvili at liberty is more dangerous for Poroshenko than Saakashvili whom they persecuted in Ukraine. We will peacefully oust the oligarchs from power."
The following image was titled: "Ukrainian opposition figure Mikheil Saakashvili arrives for a news conference in Warsaw, Poland, on Tuesday."



and: "Saakashvili supporters rally in Kiev on Feb. 4."

 
I would like to make some remarks about mr.Saakashvili, about Georgia where he was a president and where he is accused in corruption.
My remarks are founded on opinion of Anri - Georgian electric engineer who works in our partner firm in Tbilisi. Btw, I visited Tbilisi in 2016. So I add my own observations.
Anri fled Georgia in 1993 in times of the civil war. He came to Moscow and thought that he left Georgia forever. But in times of Saakashvili he managed to find work in his homeland.
Anri says that personally Saakashvili is not corrupted. He was active, initiated many projects - economical, infrastructural, political. For example, he disbanded road police in one day and formed absolutely new service, where corruption is about zero. Salaries are big enough (for Georgia) and punishment for corruption is swift and severe. General reform of police followed and as a result criminal level in the country and especially in the capital fell several times. According to Anri, it is safe to walk in Tbilisi at night time while previously probability to be a victim of bandits was high.
Anri says that in comparison with current ruling elites in Georia, Saakashvili is much better president. But ... there is a big 'BUT'. While Saakashvili himself was not corrupted, his team was corrupted at 100% and Saakashvili was well ware about it. Power was concentrated in the hands of pres.Saakashvili and narrow circle of his men. All main TV channels were under control of a handful of real rulers. Critics of government on TV was not allowed, while there was no formal censorship. All courts, judges were under control of Saakashvili and businessmen feared to fund opposition parties. Such attempts as a rule caused criminal charges. In other words system of power was very close to the Putin's system, and even more purified. Vertical, power sponsored corruption blossomed.
As a result Saakashvili step by step lost popular support. Meanwhile oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili (memebr of Forbes List of Billionaires - $4.8 bln) became a PM. One could only guess why he is so rich in poor Georgia. Mr.Ivanishvili decided to remove Saakashvili from power completely and later he had to flee from Georgia. It is a bitter irony that Saakashvili fell as a victim of own system of power and really corrupted rulers accused him in corruption.
At the same time Saakashvili completely lost popular support because after years of effective censorship on TV people have been informed about wrongdoings of his team.

So the Ukrainians could hold a natural question - why don't you try to reform own country, to make it better, richer, more free and comfortable. Why Georgian people don't support you?
In fact support of Saakashvili in Ukraine is marginal. He is merely political clown and will be ignored and forgotten in Western capitals.
He hasn't political future in Georgia and in Ukraine.
 
Sweden says it could be part of U.N. peacekeeping in Ukraine
Sweden ready to supply UN troops if a deal can be reached. A force of 20,000 is being looked at from none NATO nations. Belarus has previously stated they would supply troops but if NATO are unsuitable, why would CSTO?

Presumably a part of the ‘deal’ would be where they are stationed or on the Donbas or Russian border?

“If we see the right conditions and if we see that this mission can help ... then we are open to that,” Swedish Defense Minister Peter Hultqvist told Ukrainian and U.S. officials at the Munich Security Conference when asked about providing troops. “We are not there yet, but it is something positive.”
Volker the US special envoy is more concerned whether Russia would actually uphold any deal but if they do it could be the start of a whole transmission process. 20,000 troops and 4,000 Police. Currently 700 OSCE observers:
“We already have the Minsk agreement, which Russia has accepted. The issue is not the deal, the issue is if Russia will uphold it. If Russia will uphold it, then we have the peacekeeping force as a transmission mechanism,” Volker said.

The report proposed a U.N. force of some 20,000 soldiers from non-NATO countries and 4,000 police to help resolve the crisis in Ukraine.

Over 700 unarmed civilian observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) currently operate monitoring missions on the conflict, but these have not reduced tensions.
Meanwhile at the security conference in Munich, Gabriel (German Foreign Minister) thinks a staged reduction in sanctions, rather than awaiting implementation of Minsk 2 is a way forward:
“I am convinced that if we succeed, that we must begin to reduce sanctions in a stepwise manner,” Gabriel said.

He said he realized his view differed from the official position - that sanctions could only be eased when the Minsk peace accord was fully implemented - but that it was in the world’s interests to break the current impasse.

Gabriel said that, while there were differences with Russia over a U.N. force, it was “one of the few realistic options” for trying to end the violence, and Germany would push for progress on it at the United Nations.

“We need progress urgently because the world is becoming more dangerous,” Gabriel told a meeting also attended by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
 
Ha! Another wibbling from another British degenerate:
Four years since the illegal annexation of Crimea: article by Boris Johnson - GOV.UK
"We all have an obligation to stand up to Russia in a measured and resolute way."
Ha! What kind of "obligation" such degenerate can have, and why they have no "obligations" protect interests of citisens of his own state?
It looks like English (as in most of the words do), but the content remains gibberish. I'm normally quite fluent in @YarS but I'm stumped on this. Did you just scribble on your 'etchasketch' and upload it? Or are you drunk already? A new source of anti-freeze?
 

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