How will the Ukraine war end?

How will the Ukraine war end?

  • Rebels win,Eastern Ukraine goes independent

    Votes: 84 49.7%
  • Putin invades Kiev, NATO doesn't move

    Votes: 47 27.8%
  • Putin invades Kiev, NATO fights Russia

    Votes: 10 5.9%
  • Rebels lose, Ukraine stays united

    Votes: 28 16.6%

  • Total voters
    169

YarS

On ROPS
On ROPs
It'd be far more interesting to see how both Russia's and Ukraine's respective economies were had Russia not stolen part of Ukraine for itself plus initiated and continued a rebellion in part of its neighbour.
Ha! Only possible if Ukrane pay her debts. If they dont want to pay with money - they will pay with lands. Actually we preffer lands - it is real wealth.
 

YarS

On ROPS
On ROPs
Imagine how much better Ukraine would be if it wasn't bogged down with a war, had a substantial amount of its territory stolen etc. Imagine then if it finally threw off that Soviet yoke and dealt with the endemic corruption so common in the former Sov states.
Ha! You can invest in your own Army (as Russians do) and succesfully fight other countries, defending your economic interests or not to invest, dreaming that somebody else will protect you (as Ukres and UKes do).
You can invest money in police, finance intelligence, counter-intelligence, courts and other law-protecting organisations or not to invest, dreaming about "invisible hand of the Free Market".
You can choose any strategy, but any choice is responisibility, you will pay for it.
 
Ha! Only possible if Ukrane pay her debts. If they dont want to pay with money - they will pay with lands. Actually we preffer lands - it is real wealth.
When Russia pays reparations for stealing Crimes you may have a point.
Ha! You can invest in your own Army (as Russians do) and succesfully fight other countries, defending your economic interests or not to invest, dreaming that somebody else will protect you (as Ukres and UKes do)
Russia not in any alliances then?
You can choose any strategy, but any choice is responisibility, you will pay for it.
Of course
 

YarS

On ROPS
On ROPs
When Russia pays reparations for stealing Crimes you may have a point.
And High Court of London said, that Ukrain should to pay at least 3G$ and percents. Only loosers pay reparations. We are winners. If Ukraine will not pay money - we'll get more lands.
Russia not in any alliances then?
Of course, we are in alliances, but we can crush any enemy by ourselves, too.
Of course
Think about it.
 
And High Court of London said, that Ukrain should to pay at least 3G$ and percents. Only loosers pay reparations. We are winners. If Ukraine will not pay money - we'll get more lands.
When Russia pays reperations Ukraine should honour its debts. Russia paid its fines yet?
Of course, we are in alliances, but we can crush any enemy by ourselves, too.
Clearly not. The Ukes stopped you
Think about it.
And?
 

YarS

On ROPS
On ROPs
When Russia pays reperations Ukraine should honour its debts. Russia paid its fines yet?
Ukraine didn't honour her debts at all.

Clearly not. The Ukes stopped you
Ha! Stupid animal. One more time - we didn't even start real invasion. Everybody will see, when we'll start.
Just think. It will be enough. But really I very doubt that you can do it (in the old meaning of this world).
 
Ukraine didn't honour her debts at all.
If you steal part of their country, can you blame them?
Ha! Stupid animal. One more time - we didn't even start real invasion. Everybody will see, when we'll start.
Ha! Stupid amoeba, you are dreaming again.
Just think. It will be enough. But really I very doubt that you can do it (in the old meaning of this world).
Maybe we don't want to?
 
However, unlike @KGB_resident , I'm not prepared to assume that the performance of the economy will determine the outcome of the war, so long as the war remains on a low boil. There are a number of possible scenarios under which the pressures of the war could either reinforce or break the current domestic political deadlock, and Ukraine has a record of political instability in its brief history of independence.
Any complex conflict (on the World stage) includes key factors, components
1) economical
2) military
3) internal political (and also social, mental, moral, public opinion)
4) external political - diplomatical, geopolitical
For example the conflict in Kosovo has following features
1) Microscopic size of Kosovar economy is compensated by massive EU donations.
2) Overwhelming superiority of NATO military machine, absence of nuclear weapons in Serbia.
3) Centuries long ethnical conflict between Serbs and Albanians
4) Washington's geoplitical strategy. Recognition of Kosovar independence by the West.
Here in fact all components matter, while the main one is geoplitical.
1) Without donations the Albanians would flee from Kosovo in hundreds thousands while the Serbs could return in the same numbers.
2) Just remove US military base from Kosovo (the biggest one base outside the USA) and one day Serbian army could establish control over Kosovo in few days (if not hours).
3) The ethnical conflict will not vanish but one could expect demographic changes in Kosovo with eventually Albanians as a minority.
4) If (for this or that reason) Washington forgets about Kosovo then - look at #2.

Returning to Ukraine I would like to note that
Yes, Moscow in theory is able to win military expanding its proxy forces and arming them to the teeth. But this sort of victory would be politically unprofitable, would cause many problems. I suspect that now Moscow is provoking Kiev authorities to make a big mistake - to launch massive offensive that will end by defeat of Kiev regime in a few weeks. This type of military victory is acceptable for Moscow.
Even hot heads in Washington now undestand that Ukraine's membership in NATO, the EU are just dreams and complete failure of their puppets will happen later or sooner. So interest to the Ukrainian project is fading.
There is no any ethnical conflict between Russians and Ukrainians. There is small but loud group of hard-core nationalists. But after the end of the conflict they could and likely would emigrate to Canada/US/UK. At the same time public opinion matters. In 2014 most of our relatives in Ukraine (except older generation) were pro-Maidan and at least mildly nationalist. Now the situation has been changed dramatically. Economic realities forced people just to survive. Kiev agitprop on TV is ineffective. Millions (including some our relatives) have to seek work outside Ukraine.
Yes, economical factors are conservative, they don't act immediately but rather step by step. But eventually namely economic situation will change public opinion and for this reason namely economy will shape outcome of the war in Ukraine.

Suppose that GDP (PPP) per capita would be 3 times higher in Ukraine than in Russia then would be the Crimeans happy to leave Ukraine? The answer is obvious. Many would demand return to much more economically successful country.
During the independence no one school or kindergarten was built in Crimea (now they are being built). Salaries, pensions now are much higher. Healthcare, transport infrastructure are being improved.
So only an idiot would demand return to Ukraine.

The future of Ukraine is in the union with Russia and Ukrainian economic problems could be solved only this way.
 
Today Ukrainian vice PM mr.Tuka made a loud statement. He called for dictatorship in the name of democracy in the future.
Тука предлагает Украине диктатуру сегодня "ради демократии в будущем"
Я понимаю, что мой провокационный тезис будет полностью воспринят не всеми, однако относительно демократии: то, что мы имеем сейчас в государстве, я назвать демократией не могу, даже слабой. И единственный путь, который я вижу возможным - это наоборот, диктатура ради демократии в дальнейшем.
I understand that my provocative thesis will not be fully accepted by everybody, but with respect to democracy: what I have now in the country, I can not call democracy, even weak one. And the only way that I see possible is on the contrary, a dictatorship for the sake of democracy in the future.
 
Today Ukrainian vice PM mr.Tuka made a loud statement. He called for dictatorship in the name of democracy in the future.
Тука предлагает Украине диктатуру сегодня "ради демократии в будущем"


Wikipedia lists him as being " Deputy Minister for the temporarily occupied territories and internally displaced persons", rather than "vice PM". The Ukrainian news agency describes him as being "deputy prime minister for the temporarily occupied territories and internally displaced persons". I suspect the apparent contradiction may be a result of poor translation by the Ukrainians, as I wouldn't expect a "deputy PM" to hold a specific portfolio unless it was a result of having a separate ministerial appointment.
Tuka appointed Deputy PM for temporarily occupied territories, IDPs – Groysman
George Tuka - Wikipedia

Kyivpost describes him as "Deputy Minister of Ukraine on the Temporarily Occupied Territories and Internally Displaced Persons".
Tuka: Rules for transporting goods to/from ATO zone to apply to individuals in 2 months - Mar. 04, 2017

Previous to occupying his current position, Poroshenko had appointed him as governor of Luhansk Oblast, but fired him less than a year later. He seems to be a bit of a blow hard, and I suspect he got his positions as a result of doling out jobs amongst political factions rather than from any ability.

As Deputy Minister of Ukraine on the Temporarily Occupied Territories, his plan for the Donbas apparently involves depopulating the entire region on "environmental" grounds.
“This is not an issue of saving Donbas. It can not be saved. It is about the gradual liberation of this region from people, because people will not be able to live there for ten years,” Tuka said on the air of the program ‘Results of the Day’ on 5 TV channel on June 29 evening.
Tuka says ecological catastrophe in Donbas inevitable - Jun. 30, 2017
 
The following is an update to a previous discussion on this thread about the Ukrainian government attempting to get rid of opposition leader Saakashvili by kicking him out of the country.
https://www.arrse.co.uk/community/threads/how-will-the-ukraine-war-end.228912/post-8300409
https://www.arrse.co.uk/community/threads/how-will-the-ukraine-war-end.228912/post-8300178

Former Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili deported to Poland

A group of armed and masked men grabbed Saakashvili at a restaurant in Kiev and hauled him to the Polish border and turfed him across.
Mikheil Saakashvili, the former Georgian president-turned-Ukrainian opposition leader, was deported from Ukraine to Poland on Monday after being detained by armed, masked men at a restaurant in Kyiv and rushed to the airport, according to Ukrainian officials and his supporters.
The masked men were apparently Ukrainian security officials, but Saakashvili denounced it as a "kidnapping".
Saakashvili called the move "a kidnapping."
Poland said Saakashvili was given entry to Poland at the request of the Ukrainian authorities. Saakashvili is admissible to Poland on the grounds that his wife is an EU citizen (Dutch).
Poland's border guards said on the agency's website that Saakashvili was admitted to Polish territory Monday at the request of Ukrainian immigration authorities.

He was permitted into Poland as the spouse of a European Union citizen, the Polish guards said. Saakashvili's wife is Dutch, and both the Netherlands and Poland are EU nations.
Saakashvili said that his forcible deportation shows Poroshenko's weakness. He also called Poroshenko a "sneaky speculator who wants to destroy Ukraine".
Upon his arrival in Poland, Saakashvili said his deportation showed Poroshenko's weakness. He denounced the Ukrainian president as a "sneaky speculator who wants to destroy Ukraine" in a Facebook statement.
The Ukrainian government had previously stripped Saakashvili of his citizenship while he was on a trip out of the country. His political supporters however helped him force his way back into the country.

Saakashvili's supporters protested against this latest move in Kiev on Monday.


At this time it does not appear likely that Saakashvili will simply accept Poroshenko's latest attempt to get rid of one of his political opponents. There are several possible avenues open to him at this point, and there is nothing stopping him from pursuing several of them simultaneously.

One obvious one is for his supporters to conduct anti-Poroshenko protests in Kiev. Another would be for Saakashvili to pursue a lobbying campaign in the EU in an attempt to undermine support for Poroshenko among key EU governments.

Regardless of the outcome of all of this in Ukraine, this latest news may further undermine support for Ukraine in the west.
 
The following is an update to a previous discussion on this thread about the Ukrainian government attempting to get rid of opposition leader Saakashvili by kicking him out of the country.
https://www.arrse.co.uk/community/threads/how-will-the-ukraine-war-end.228912/post-8300409
https://www.arrse.co.uk/community/threads/how-will-the-ukraine-war-end.228912/post-8300178

Former Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili deported to Poland

A group of armed and masked men grabbed Saakashvili at a restaurant in Kiev and hauled him to the Polish border and turfed him across.


The masked men were apparently Ukrainian security officials, but Saakashvili denounced it as a "kidnapping".


Poland said Saakashvili was given entry to Poland at the request of the Ukrainian authorities. Saakashvili is admissible to Poland on the grounds that his wife is an EU citizen (Dutch).


Saakashvili said that his forcible deportation shows Poroshenko's weakness. He also called Poroshenko a "sneaky speculator who wants to destroy Ukraine".


The Ukrainian government had previously stripped Saakashvili of his citizenship while he was on a trip out of the country. His political supporters however helped him force his way back into the country.

Saakashvili's supporters protested against this latest move in Kiev on Monday.


At this time it does not appear likely that Saakashvili will simply accept Poroshenko's latest attempt to get rid of one of his political opponents. There are several possible avenues open to him at this point, and there is nothing stopping him from pursuing several of them simultaneously.

One obvious one is for his supporters to conduct anti-Poroshenko protests in Kiev. Another would be for Saakashvili to pursue a lobbying campaign in the EU in an attempt to undermine support for Poroshenko among key EU governments.

Regardless of the outcome of all of this in Ukraine, this latest news may further undermine support for Ukraine in the west.
Only one thing would undermine support for Ukraine in the West - new government that is ready to cooperate with Moscow, that is ready to resolve internal conflicts through negotiations.
Former president of foreign country has been voided Ukrainian citizenship and expelled. Big deal. It will not be noticed in Western capitals. There is no freedom of speech in Ukraine, Communist party is officially forbidden. Who cares in the West? Even open dictatorship would be regarded in the West merely as internal matter. Though, of course the West prefers falsified 'elections' as a façade.
As for mr.Tuka then it is my mistake. He is indeed merely deputy minister, not vice PM.
Though he sounded something that other representatives of ruling elite prefer not to disclose.
 
Yanukovych's money grabbing and stealing is still going on through a British shell company:

Potters Bar and Ukraine's stolen billions

Good job this legitimate president de-legitimised himself, otherwise even more would have been stolen.
I strongly suspect that previous and current Ukrainian ruling elites were (are) corrupted. As for your article then it contains mainly allegations. For exampe
The profits apparently ended up in the pockets of people closely linked to the regime of former President Viktor Yanukovych
Or maybe of the people closely linked to the current regime. Who knows?
 

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