How will the Ukraine war end?

How will the Ukraine war end?

  • Rebels win,Eastern Ukraine goes independent

    Votes: 87 50.3%
  • Putin invades Kiev, NATO doesn't move

    Votes: 47 27.2%
  • Putin invades Kiev, NATO fights Russia

    Votes: 10 5.8%
  • Rebels lose, Ukraine stays united

    Votes: 29 16.8%

  • Total voters
    173

HopeGrant

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Nice try but nobody here is going to buy onto the Kremlins desperate attempts to conflate mistakes with deliberate fake news.
That's why calling you 'aquarium fish' is a compliment. Really you are mushrooms - you live in the darkness and eat a sh-t.
Were you looking in the mirror as you typed that while your masters practice mushroom management on you serfs.
My friend made over $100,000 clear profit just last week from another one of the gay commissar’s ministers. More of your cash down the drain my little gopnik. Are you enjoying bending over for them?



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HopeGrant

On ROPS
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Usual unthinking bigoted drivel from the sites mentally retarded Amoeba
I'm rubber, you're glue.
Eat shit. Frag you.
LOL you aren’t even capable of using Google to translate into English invective correctly
You’re quite obviously ‘mince’
I assume your directors at the troll farm are monitoring your dismal performance so by way of this note I am asking them to send us another troll as you’re broken and can’t be fixed.


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HopeGrant

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Well the gay commissar is a wannabe Czar so that is not exactly surprising.


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Unfortunately I don't think it's just Putin, but all other the wannabe Putins are probably also wannabe Czars.
Well it probably won’t be long before they’re all knifing each other as the gay commissar gets older and his powers fade and his cuntry gets poorer and more and more of his ministers divert more and more of the state’s revenues abroad.
There’s always an upside


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Well it probably won’t be long before they’re all knifing each other as the gay commissar gets older and his powers fade and his cuntry gets poorer and more and more of his ministers divert more and more of the state’s revenues abroad.
There’s always an upside


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I think some of his more powerful oligarchs/silovki are going against the weaker ones already as the pool starts drying up.
 

YarS

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Were you looking in the mirror as you typed that while your masters practice mushroom management on you serfs.
My friend made over $100,000 clear profit just last week from another one of the gay commissar’s ministers. More of your cash down the drain my little gopnik.
Cash is a dust. Means of exchange, nothing more. Your friend just given something for something. I don't know what it was, so I can't say was it good or bad, but M$0,1 is not enough to buy even one tank.
 

HopeGrant

On ROPS
On ROPs
Were you looking in the mirror as you typed that while your masters practice mushroom management on you serfs.
My friend made over $100,000 clear profit just last week from another one of the gay commissar’s ministers. More of your cash down the drain my little gopnik.
Cash is a dust. Means of exchange, nothing more. Your friend just given something for something. I don't know what it was, so I can't say was it good or bad, but M$0,1 is not enough to buy even one tank.
You’re confusing revenue and profit on the deal my little gopnik. Don’t ever go into business


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HopeGrant

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You’re confusing revenue and profit on the deal my little gopnik.
Does not matter. If it was a deal, it was profitable for both sides.
And yes, does your friend ready to explain his profit for British law? Big money with Russian origin can be confiscated now.
Russian oligarchs will have to account for wealth
My friend isn’t British and his business is perfectly legal in his country. Your ministers undoubtedly will have to answer questions in Russia one day though


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Recently BBC-Russian compared Russian and Ukrainian economies.
Экономика Украины растет быстрее российской. Почему?

2007 was chosen as the last pre-crisis (2008-9) year.
Ukrainian economy has not recovered yet while Russian one shows visible growth.
According to the IMF size of Ukrainian economy in2022 will be 3% lower than 2007 level, while Russian one will be 20% higher.
As for GDP (PPP) per capita then BBC shows current data
Ukraine $7509
Russia $24967
Latvia $23834
As pres.Clinton once said - It's economy, stupid. Namely economy will shape the outcome of Ukrainian war.
 
Last edited:
Recently BBC-Russian compared Russian and Ukrainian economies.
Экономика Украины растет быстрее российской. Почему?

2007 was chosen as the last pre-crisis (2008-9) year.
Ukrainian economy has not recovered yet while Russian one shows visible growth.
According to the IMF size of Ukrainian economy will be 3% lower than 2007 level, while Russian one will be 20% higher.
As for GDP (PPP) per capita then BBC shows current data
Ukraine $7509
Russia $24967
Latvia $23834
As pres.Clinton once said - It's economy, stupid. Namely economy will shape the outcome of Ukrainian war.
It'd be far more interesting to see how both Russia's and Ukraine's respective economies were had Russia not stolen part of Ukraine for itself plus initiated and continued a rebellion in part of its neighbour.
 
It'd be far more interesting to see how both Russia's and Ukraine's respective economies were had Russia not stolen part of Ukraine for itself plus initiated and continued a rebellion in part of its neighbour.
My thoughts too. If you take half the country and destabilize the rest forcing it to spend much more than it would like on defence then you should expect an economic down turn.

Just been looking at the IMF info and KGB's graph is a bit simplistic. GDP forecast for Russia is 10.63K, for Ukraine it is 2.6K, Estonia 21.96k and the UK is 40.03k. So Russia not doing too well compared to others.
 
My thoughts too. If you take half the country and destabilize the rest forcing it to spend much more than it would like on defence then you should expect an economic down turn.

Just been looking at the IMF info and KGB's graph is a bit simplistic. GDP forecast for Russia is 10.63K, for Ukraine it is 2.6K, Estonia 21.96k and the UK is 40.03k. So Russia not doing too well compared to others.
Sorry, it's not my data. The graph and numbers are taken from BBC article.
Check it please.
 
My thoughts too. If you take half the country and destabilize the rest forcing it to spend much more than it would like on defence then you should expect an economic down turn.

Just been looking at the IMF info and KGB's graph is a bit simplistic. GDP forecast for Russia is 10.63K, for Ukraine it is 2.6K, Estonia 21.96k and the UK is 40.03k. So Russia not doing too well compared to others.
You're comparing nominal figures to the BBC's PPP figures - apples and oranges. PPP figures will give you a reasonable approximation of the standard of living, while nominal figures more closely reflect international currency movements that in many cases have little connection to standard of living.
List of countries by GDP (PPP) per capita - Wikipedia

For 2016 here are the PPP GDP per capita in USD with a comparison to some other relevant countries:
  • Russia: 26,490 (slightly less than Greece)
  • Ukraine: 8,305 (slightly less than Morocco)
  • UK: 42,481 (between Belgium and France)
  • Latvia: 25,710 (slightly less than Russia)
  • Estonia: 29,313 (slightly greater than Portugal)
  • Average for the entire world: 16,318

For additional comparison, here's the list of the 10 countries whose PPP GDP per capita is closest to Ukraine:
  • Jamaica
  • El Salvador
  • Libya
  • Armenia
  • Morocco
  • Bhutan
  • Belize
  • Guatamala
  • Guyana
  • Philippines

A more instructive lesson though is to compare the relative performances of Poland and Ukraine since 1990, when communism collapsed in both and Ukraine became independent. Poland suffered a small and brief decline, but per capita wealth has increased steadily since then, and is now roughly 5 times as great as it was then.

Ukraine however, despite starting at a significantly higher level than Poland, went into a deep and long lasting decline that cut per capita wealth roughly in half. This persisted for nearly a decade until recovery began at around the beginning of the century. Growth then looked good for nearly another decade, but then growth stagnated again. We can see the hit of the global financial crisis of 10 years ago, and the current Ukraine economic crisis which began in 2013 at the latest. The war itself seems to have had less effect on the Ukrainian economy than the global banking crisis did.


The BBC chart referenced in one of the posts above offers a magnified view of the post 2008 time period. The vertical scale on the above chart is more compressed due to the need to incorporate the greater cumulative growth of Poland. The BBC chart shows the post 2008 decline more clearly, while the above chart puts it in a longer term perspective.

Currently per capital PPP GDP in Ukraine under independence stands at the same or slightly less than it was under the Soviets. Poland in contrast has made great strides and has gone from significantly behind Ukraine to dramatically greater. Since 1990, Ukraine has had one of the worst, if not the worst, economic performances of any of the former Soviet states. Poland on the other hand is considered to be one of the economic success stories of the former COMECON states.

This contrast with other post-Soviet economies has not gone unnoticed in Ukraine, and is one of the root causes of the disenchantment the ordinary people have with their political class. Other countries have advanced, while Ukraine has sunk into the third world.

The poor long term peformance of Ukraine has attracted a lot of attention from economists who have offered many theories as to the reasons for it. Note that we are not talking about just the recent war, as the problems go back to long before then. One of the most common reasons advanced has been Ukraine's aversion to major economic reform. It is often postulated that this is due to so much of the economy being in the hands of a powerful class of oligarchs who benefit from the current situation and are afraid of losing their wealth and influence if anything were to change.

However, unlike @KGB_resident , I'm not prepared to assume that the performance of the economy will determine the outcome of the war, so long as the war remains on a low boil. There are a number of possible scenarios under which the pressures of the war could either reinforce or break the current domestic political deadlock, and Ukraine has a record of political instability in its brief history of independence.
 
My thoughts too. If you take half the country and destabilize the rest forcing it to spend much more than it would like on defence then you should expect an economic down turn.
Indeed. Nicking part of a country, one which has much of its ports, airfields and decent sized population centres, then trying to say that the two compared eg Russia and Ukraine are poles apart isn't comparing fruit let alone apples and oranges.

Imagine how much better Ukraine would be if it wasn't bogged down with a war, had a substantial amount of its territory stolen etc. Imagine then if it finally threw off that Soviet yoke and dealt with the endemic corruption so common in the former Sov states.

I suppose the bottom line is it should join the EU as so many former Sov and WarPac states seem to have done better overall.
Just been looking at the IMF info and KGB's graph is a bit simplistic. GDP forecast for Russia is 10.63K, for Ukraine it is 2.6K, Estonia 21.96k and the UK is 40.03k. So Russia not doing too well compared to others.
Graphs, statistics etc. abound. Depends on your source and what you want to measure. Sergey just sees a graph in Russia's favour and posts it. Others may use their own interpretations and whichever they consider most favourable to their line of thinking. GDP is one measure. As is GDP by PPP
List of IMF ranked countries by GDP - Wikipedia
List of countries by GDP (PPP) per capita growth rate - Wikipedia
List of countries by GDP (nominal) per capita - Wikipedia

I always liked the latter i.e. GDP per capita personally :) but then I'm not an economist and nor do I pretend to be.
 

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