How will the Ukraine war end?

How will the Ukraine war end?

  • Rebels win,Eastern Ukraine goes independent

    Votes: 150 39.9%
  • Putin invades Kiev, NATO doesn't move

    Votes: 118 31.4%
  • Putin invades Kiev, NATO fights Russia

    Votes: 27 7.2%
  • Rebels lose, Ukraine stays united

    Votes: 81 21.5%

  • Total voters
    376
The grand strategic masterstrokes were quite clearly embedded in the original plan and they're all failed. I have even explained why they're failed i.e. The Ukrainian's Sumy spoiling Offensive on Day one and failing logistics meant they're couldn't operate off road very long and simply screen the cities like Chernigov and Sumy and they're couldn't take Kyiv without a force east of the city in the first week and ran out of time.

Similarly the Donbas offensive. I've expressed my own opinion, that the Russians changed tactics in the middle of March and if the Ukrainians fight the same way outside of Kyiv in the Donbas, then they're would lose. The only celebrations I've witnessed on here is the cheerleader club after another video is released by the Ukrainian propaganda ministry.

You have expressed so many bloody opinions, it is virtually impossible to keep up
 
I just heard Frank Gardner on BBC talking about Ukraine losing, if he posted that on the other thread he would be banned.. You and others should stick to the Ukrainian news service twitter, where Ukraine is always winning and stay away from places, where the truth can be seen.

For the handful interested in how this war ends. Gardner also followed the establishment narrative that its all about those two oblasts and once secured, Putin will call a ceasefire. Its my view that our experts have been wrong about everything, eventually and its more likely the Ukrainians long attritional delay will not end at the oblast border and if the defenders aren't in any fit state, the Russians will then introduce a second element and begin a general offensive again and try to push up to the Dnieper River and try to capture Zaporzhe and Dnipro.

Got news for you sunshine.

You are a ‘self-proclaimed expert’; Frank Gardner is a real one.
 
One of the better coverages of the war is done by this guy, well worth listening, its long and detailed.

He is extremely non biased, and driven by accuracy...as much as its possible in a war zone, taking a pessimistic, rather than a 'rosy' view.

Many of you probably already follow.



It remains a very 'close run thing' with a huge amount riding on the outcome.
 
One of the better coverages of the war is done by this guy, well worth listening, its long and detailed.

He is extremely non biased, and driven by accuracy...as much as its possible in a war zone, taking a pessimistic, rather than a 'rosy' view.

Many of you probably already follow.



It remains a very 'close run thing' with a huge amount riding on the outcome.

Everything depended on the NATO trained Ukrainian Regular Army and its been targeted since day one of the invasion. Its the force that blunted the original Russian operation in the first week of the war long enough to throw the whole operational timetable out of the window. Its the force that's fought a bloody attritional delaying action in the Donbas.

My view is most of the regular bayonet strength are dead, wounded or in various stages of shell shock. So another one to three months to get past Kramatorsk and Slavyansk and there will be nothing left in the Ukrainian locker to hold and with the ground virtually flat, you would assume the commitment of the mystery to some second echelon (seen only once, in the 20 mile column outside of Kyiv and then failed to attack) for a drive on Zaporozhe.

Given the Russians seem to have an intent to fight this war out until at least next spring, anything is possible and I just have a sense the Conscripts will be committed to support operations after the winter.
 
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Everything depended on the NATO trained Ukrainian Regular Army and its been targeted since day one of the invasion. Its the force that blunted the original Russian operation in the first week of the war long enough to throw the whole operational timetable out of the window. Its the force that's fought a bloody attritional delaying action in the Donbas.

My view is most of the of the regular bayonet strength are dead, wounded or in various stages of shell shock. So another one to three months to get past Kramatorsk and Slavyansk and there will be nothing left in the Ukrainian locker to hold and with the ground virtually flat, you would assume the commitment of the mystery to some second echelon (seen only once, in the 20 mile column outside of Kyiv and then failed to attack) for a drive on Zaporozhe.

Given the Russians seem to have an intent to fight this war out until at least next spring, anything is possible and I just have a sense the Conscripts will be committed to support operations after the winter.
“My view…”
“I have the sense…”
And you describe others as “self appointed experts” – presumably irony isn’t in your locker
 
I’ll wait till I hear Michael Clarke of RUSI on Sky News, thanks very much
Nobody knows the full truth and neither the Russians/Ukrainians are going to tell anyone the truth and so most of the facts are massaged, or flat out lies.. It strikes me a G2 would have three probable reports and one is a balanced opinion for the CO and the other two briefing are the overly pessimistic, kept within the Intelligence Community and an optimistic version released to the media.

At the start of the war it was clear Putin was fed by his own intelligence people the optimistic version and our increasingly desperate efforts to arm up the Ukrainians is telling and that the cause for optimism is misplaced and the balanced view, is this is on a knife edge and favouring Russia.
 
Everything depended on the NATO trained Ukrainian Regular Army and its been targeted since day one of the invasion. Its the force that blunted the original Russian operation in the first week of the war long enough to throw the whole operational timetable out of the window. Its the force that's fought a bloody attritional delaying action in the Donbas.

Not true.

More emcon lies, misinformation and deliberate mendacity to push an agenda.

My view is most of the regular bayonet strength are dead, wounded or in various stages of shell shock.

A view which contradicts your opening gambit.

If all these "Nato trained" regulars are no longer fighting, it must be the non-Nato trained non-regulars currently denying the Russian barbarians victory.

So another one to three months to get past Kramatorsk and Slavyansk and there will be nothing left in the Ukrainian locker to hold and with the ground virtually flat, you would assume the commitment of the mystery to some second echelon (seen only once, in the 20 mile column outside of Kyiv and then failed to attack) for a drive on Zaporozhe.

Another emcon date and outcome prediction!!!!

Have you no pride in your effort? Every single one of your predictions has proven wrong. What makes you think you have any credibility in coming up with more random predictions?


Given the Russians seem to have an intent to fight this war out until at least next spring, anything is possible and I just have a sense the Conscripts will be committed to support operations after the winter.

Eh?

On what basis do you consider those assumptions are given?

I do not consider them given at all. I think you just made p something in your head and are trying to mislead others with a false narrative.
 
Nobody knows the full truth and neither the Russians/Ukrainians are going to tell anyone the truth and so most of the facts are massaged, or flat out lies.. It strikes me a G2 would have three probable reports and one is a balanced opinion for the CO and the other two briefing are the overly pessimistic, kept within the Intelligence Community and an optimistic version released to the media.

At the start of the war it was clear Putin was fed by his own intelligence people the optimistic version and our increasingly desperate efforts to arm up the Ukrainians is telling and that the cause for optimism is misplaced and the balanced view, is this is on a knife edge and favouring Russia.

“Nobody knows the full truth….”

“It was clear…”

You should do stand-up
 
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Not true.

More emcon lies, misinformation and deliberate mendacity to push an agenda.



A view which contradicts your opening gambit.

If all these "Nato trained" regulars are no longer fighting, it must be the non-Nato trained non-regulars currently denying the Russian barbarians victory.



Another emcon date and outcome prediction!!!!

Have you no pride in your effort? Every single one of your predictions has proven wrong. What makes you think you have any credibility in coming up with more random predictions?




Eh?

On what basis do you consider those assumptions are given?

I do not consider them given at all. I think you just made p something in your head and are trying to mislead others with a false narrative.
Took three months for the Russians to chew threw those regulars and the ugly truth is probably with limited Russian losses, in comparison to the Ukrainians losses. How long do you think it will take the Russians to chew threw the non-regulars, who recently gave up there positions ?

You see war like a video game where the sprites will stand there ground and die in position. I tend to see the humanity trapped inside something dreadful and the west isn't coming to Ukraine's rescue and that sense will grow, after each successive position falls and I happen to believe that once Kramatorsk/Slavyansk goes we will see a collapse.
 

Slime

LE
Took three months for the Russians to chew threw those regulars and the ugly truth is probably with limited Russian losses, in comparison to the Ukrainians losses. How long do you think it will take the Russians to chew threw the non-regulars, who recently gave up there positions ?

You see war like a video game where the sprites will stand there ground and die in position. I tend to see the humanity trapped inside something dreadful and the west isn't coming to Ukraine's rescue and that sense will grow, after each successive position falls and I happen to believe that once Kramatorsk/Slavyansk goes we will see a collapse.

You have happened to have believed a lot of things, but have also been far more wrong than any other poster in this or the original thread.

The absolute comedy/idiocy of your posts is that the more you have got wrong, and the more of a fool you have made of yourself the more you predict.

Some here suspect you might have mental health issues. Perhaps you just have no self respect, who knows?

At the end of the day, I read your silly fantasies, and just remember that you ARE the poster who said Russia wouldn’t invade, and you ARE the poster who predicted six different end dates for this war…….that all came and went with you being wrong over and over again.
 
Took three months for the Russians to chew threw those regulars and the ugly truth is probably with limited Russian losses, in comparison to the Ukrainians losses. How long do you think it will take the Russians to chew threw the non-regulars, who recently gave up there positions ?

You see war like a video game where the sprites will stand there ground and die in position. I tend to see the humanity trapped inside something dreadful and the west isn't coming to Ukraine's rescue and that sense will grow, after each successive position falls and I happen to believe that once Kramatorsk/Slavyansk goes we will see a collapse.
Once again demonstrating a lack of understanding of the meaning of the word "truth".
 
Took three months for the Russians to chew threw those regulars and the ugly truth is probably with limited Russian losses, in comparison to the Ukrainians losses. How long do you think it will take the Russians to chew threw the non-regulars, who recently gave up there positions ?

You see war like a video game where the sprites will stand there ground and die in position. I tend to see the humanity trapped inside something dreadful and the west isn't coming to Ukraine's rescue and that sense will grow, after each successive position falls and I happen to believe that once Kramatorsk/Slavyansk goes we will see a collapse.

chew threw ?
gave up there positions ?

Shift change, perhaps ?
 
Your masterly direction of the moderators to a banning of a post you objected to.
Sadly, mods on this thread haven't taken as firm a line as I believe appropriate with the Arrser whose (utterly befuddled) view of the war in Ukraine is expounded immediately after yours in quotes above . . . . ^~
 
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