How will the Ukraine war end?

[terminal]

Old but makes me chuckle.

Putins eureka Moment for the inspiration of his “Special Operation” In the Ukraine.
“How to fall flat on your face and carry on as if it was part of the plot!”

It looks like he hit an unexpected rough spot and then picked himself up and carried on. That's how the game is played.

It may be a good analogy for how Russia have been doing in the Ukraine war, but it may not necessarily be one that means everything is going to be fine.

Ukraine are in serious trouble and they will need major support both now and for many years after the war, however it may turn out in the end. We have to be prepared for the long haul and not lose interest when we don't see quick results.

 

[964ST]

It looks like he hit an unexpected rough spot and then picked himself up and carried on. That's how the game is played.

It may be a good analogy for how Russia have been doing in the Ukraine war, but it may not necessarily be one that means everything is going to be fine.

Ukraine are in serious trouble and they will need major support both now and for many years after the war, however it may turn out in the end. We have to be prepared for the long haul and not lose interest when we don't see quick results.

An analagy of how the Shitfest started is-

Putin is the gang leader and is goaded by his members (fnarr fnarr) in 2014 to go to a cliff edge jump off into the water, which he does and gets away with it! 2022 his gang are arrogant and want more from the Stalin Wannabe and goad him again to go to the same cliff but this time Take a Dive! Putin does not want to loose his advantage/face and reluctantly is pushed into diving, his ARMS are not strong enough and he is SEVERELY injured. He takes his wrath out on the pushers!

How this war will end? Is like 2 immovable forces coming into opposing contact with each other.

One side is the Inert Gas and on the other is an aggressive poisonous gas. One can only HOPE! That a vacuum!!?? sucks the poisoness gas out. Ie internal unrest in Russia

 

[terminal]

Russia are now in complete control of Severodonetsk. This is reportedly their biggest victory since the fall of Mariupol and could be a very significant step in the war in eastern Ukraine.
Russian forces now control Severodonestsk, but Zelensky vows Ukraine will re-take lost cities

The fall of Severodonetsk — once home to more than 100,000 people, now a wasteland — was Russia's biggest victory since capturing the port of Mariupol last month. It transforms the battlefield in Eastern Ukraine after weeks in which Moscow's huge advantage in firepower had yielded only slow gains.

The focus of the fighting has now shifted to Lysychansk.

The UK PM is apparently worried that Ukraine will face pressure (I assume he's talking about from EU Europe) to agree to a peace deal. Johnson apparently feels this would create a very dangerous situation for the long run peace of Europe.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who will take part, said he feared Ukraine could face pressure to agree to a peace deal, and the consequences of Putin getting his way in Ukraine would be dangerous to international security.

 

[sonofgreenfinch]

Ukraine spurned one opportunity to avoid war, by walking very softly around its Russian minority.
Ukraine has spurned two opportunities to make peace:-
1. In the Minsk accords.
2. After the Russians pulled back from the stalemate outside of Kyiv and a moment of weakness in Moscow.

Russia is the aggressor and no matter how much we don't like their justifications, its the essence of power politics and Russia still sees itself as a great power and is backed by China and most of the developing world (ignoring the words spouted in the UN), who despise the west and its insufferable holier than thou attitude that Russia/China have been pushing and promoting for two and a half decades.

Russia hasn't the strength to conquer the whole country, or carry out the conquest quickly. But the longer Ukraine waits to talk, the less likely it is the war won't be seen by everyone outside of a few cheerleaders as one Russia is winning.

How is that developing world getting on under Chinese colonialism?

 

[sonofgreenfinch]

I'm sure you think you're some military and world affairs savant, however, posts like your few recent ones just show you up.

Ukraine deliberately dragging the war out? Really?

If Ukraine had fully tooled up and resourced armed forces trained to modern standards and practices, unlike the Russians, they would have done whatever they could to finish this as soon as they could.

But they didn't have that option. The only one they have is fighting tooth and nail for as long as they can playing to their own strengths, and using them where the Russians can't.

If it's a fight for survival and the principles and brighter future you see when compared with what Russia offers, you fight as long and as hard as you can.

His self image, which has survived over a long period of posting here, is one of the most remarkable I have ever come across.

 

[sonofgreenfinch]

Colourful and meaningless.. Russia's goal from day one hasn't changed and its fixed on destroying the Ukrainian Regular Army and without that spine, you can't have counter attacks and no prepared position can stand up to bombardment indefinitely and fighting in the way Ukraine has done has exhausted it and I think your kidding yourself they're will be able to hold the newly prepared positions to the rear.

Its been my opinion since March, that once the Ukrainians are driven back to its next pre-prepared positions you will see a weakening in morale as the guys asked to hold the position will be in no fit state anymore to stand up to another three months bombardment.

Now I will also say you are a moron.

Bad Vlad dropped special forces into Kyiv on day one – his goal being to topple the government, and set up a Russian puppet.

Now the goal is to “liberate the oppressed Russians in the Donbass”.

 

[sonofgreenfinch]

Ukraine adopted Siege tactics from day one and you only do that if you hope to delay an enemy long enough that they're may go away and tire of the struggle or run out of supplies, or critically a relief army is on the way. The Argentines for instant did not dig into Stanley, for the simple reason no relief was expected and themselves were tired of the struggle.

The Ukrainian Government throughout the war has lied to its army and the west has played a dreadful part in that deceit, by supplying heavy weapons and cheering on the struggle and ask the blokes who defended Mariupol about promises.. No relief army is coming and the besieging forces show no sign of giving up and once they're have dealt with one small pocket, they're will use the lodgments and bridgeheads to develop the next pocket and the next all the way to Zaporzhe.

While, of course, the Russians told the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth to their army – you inestable moron!

 

[kalliste]

You'll know who won by this sign: if active hostilities cease or peter out in Ukraine and the Petrodollar is still the world reserve currency then "the international community / western civilization" i.e. the global banking cartel have won else if China and Russia have parlayed some kind of alternate / parallel system that effectively splits the world into two economic blocks then the international community lost. Whether either outcome means we escape eating bugs and owning nothing and being happy about it is another question in my mind, since both parties in the conflict seem fully on board with the WEF agenda. My guess is it's heads they win tails we lose and whatever happens in Ukraine you'd better develop a liking for minced grasshopper.

 

[964ST]

IMHO? Which is worthless, the only credible way of halting this shitfest is for “Russians to revolt”. The Navalny chap was/is a champion for “Rights”, he is as much a Russian as Putin but with a perspective that does not fit the regime because they feel threatened (or their corrupt lifestyle is threatenEd)

To stop this war in the Ukrain you must have a “Change of Perspective” from Russians. And I sense it is starting

 

[Dads203]

 

[Emcon Ecomcon]

Quite the opposite
Colorful and meaningful

I’m not referring to Snake Island, but to the entire country

Russia should have rolled through, but without the need of a slow tactical retreat buying time due to Russian incompetence the Ukrainian people woke up on the morning of 24 February and chose to stand up to Putin
Yelensky failed to run away

The GRUs Ukraninan fifth column that had been funded by bribes didn’t exist - the corrupt GRU had pocketed most of the money and those people that they had bought didn’t deliver (perhaps they were incompetent or perhaps they conned the GRU)

Women, children and the elderly left the country, and women, children and the elderly also remained

Morale


And failing

They can blow a lot of shit up though

Don’t worry, they can pull back a corridor then destroy the Russians when they break down again

Or a boost to morale once their farmers capture more equipment and Russians have to walk again

Russia thought it was clever by attacking Kyiv and knocking out the command and control, with varying pincers all set to arrive at Kyiv by a given date and the plan failed. I happen to think it was because the Russians were unwilling to level Sumy and Chernigov and blocking and then going around the two cities, ran into logistic problems and they're simply failed to arrive on the east bank in time and in strength.

As for the rebooted campaign itself. I warned the cheerleaders of what I think the Russians were doing and now they're are going to consolidate recent gains and begin chewing a way through the next line and the next all the way back to Kramatorsk, with a weakening and diminishing level of resistance at each line, until the final line cracks like an egg shell.

 

[terminal]

The headline item in this story is not significant, the important bit is down near the end of the story.
Russia attacks Ukrainian capital Kyiv for 1st time in weeks

As previously reported, Severodonetsk has fallen to Russian forces and Lysychansk is now the focus. With these two cities in their control Russia will have control of every major city in the Donbass.

Lysychansk and Severodonetsk have been the focal point of a Russian offensive aimed at capturing all of the Donbas and destroying the Ukrainian military defending it — the most capable and battle-hardened segment of the country's armed forces.

Capturing Lysychansk would give Russian forces control of every major settlement in the province, a significant step toward Russia's aim of capturing the entire Donbas. The Russians and separatists control about half of Donetsk, the second province in the Donbas.

Once they have Lysychansk, the question then becomes what will their next objective be? Will they call it enough, or will they shift focus to another objective?

 

[terminal]

There's an interesting note to the program under which Canada is bringing Ukrainians to the country.
Why Ukrainian newcomers are not refugees and why that matters

They are not actually considered to be "refugees", but rather "temporary residents". It's a special category set up specifically for Ukrainians.

This was apparently at the request of the Ukrainian immigrant community in Canada. They told the government that the majority of people coming to Canada under this program will want to return to Ukraine eventually.

Apparently by using this special category a lot of the paperwork and waiting involved in refugee status is also bypassed. Apparently 200,000 Ukrainians have applied to come to Canada under this system. No limits have been placed on their numbers.

They get temporary residency for 3 years, settlement assistance, and can live, work, and study in Canada. After 3 years they can apply for permanent residency if they wish to stay.

 

[Emcon Ecomcon]

The headline item in this story is not significant, the important bit is down near the end of the story.
Russia attacks Ukrainian capital Kyiv for 1st time in weeks

As previously reported, Severodonetsk has fallen to Russian forces and Lysychansk is now the focus. With these two cities in their control Russia will have control of every major city in the Donbass.


Once they have Lysychansk, the question then becomes what will their next objective be? Will they call it enough, or will they shift focus to another objective?

Ukraine has been rotating units and probably has the strength to hold the next line, for at least another couple of months, but that only gives the Russians more targets to fire at and without a cities overhead protection the attritional defeat is only likely to grow wider.

The next line and the one behind will have weaker and more exhausted units to hold them and the base of the salient is likely to crack and the Russians may just insert a second echelon and finally try for a breakthrough and run for Zaporozhe. After that will be an unknown, because if Ukraine has been underestimating its losses then the army could collapse and the Russians will get bolder and maybe make a try for Dnipro and eventually Kharkov.

 

[tommikka]

Ukraine has been rotating units and probably has the strength to hold the next line, for at least another couple of months, but that only gives the Russians more targets to fire at and without a cities overhead protection the attritional defeat is only likely to grow wider.

The next line and the one behind will have weaker and more exhausted units to hold them and the base of the salient is likely to crack and the Russians may just insert a second echelon and finally try for a breakthrough and run for Zaporozhe. After that will be an unknown, because if Ukraine has been underestimating its losses then the army could collapse and the Russians will get bolder and maybe make a try for Dnipro and eventually Kharkov.

Russia is still giving Ukraine plenty to shoot at

 

[Resasi]

And Ukraine, with the help of more accurate rocket artillery that has only recently arrived on the front is putting it to good use.

Recent reports of big targets, storage facilities and command posts being hit are now beginning to come in.

These new upgraded, longer range and more accurate systems can be considered as the sniper rifles of the artillery world, though few in number, their impact will be exponentially more lethal and effective than anything the Ukrainians have had to date.

With the intelligence assets, multiplicity of electronic, satellite, and high altitude NATO drones feeding back immediate information on Russian targets, a rich harvest can be expected.

Putins recalling and replacement of various Generals has indicated his dissatisfaction with how the war is being conducted, and its only likely to get worse. This in itself driving up pressure on those in his immediate siloviki group to get rid of him as they see the incredible damage it has done to themselves and to Russia.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2022-06-22/russia-appears-to-begin-purge-of-battlefield-commanders-in-ukraine

He's concentrating on 'heavy hitters!'

Putin calls in retired, obese general to fight in Ukraine

The heavyset Russian general will lead special forces in Eastern Ukraine after coming out of retirement, according to a report.

nypost.com

 

[Resasi]

@Dave-the-rave some very pertinent points made. Sorry unable to award an excellent due Forum restrictions. Thanks @Stonker.

'If Russia can continue to replace poor soldiers with ever more poor soldiers, without the Russian population kicking off big style, Ukraine is in trouble. There's a lot of big IF's there of course but this is all bad and it ain't getting better anytime soon. I see no evidence Putin has lost the plot. I do see evidence they intend to go for broke here. They are all in and intend to keep going for as long as they can.

The other big unknown is how long can/will 'we' keep going, and how fast can we give Ukraine what it needs. I suspect 'we' are actually pretty much all in as well ie 'we' are giving them what we can spare, what we can buy, and what we can manufacture, as fast as we can. If it's not enough then it's not enough. This is a really bad situation for Ukraine. It is becoming a bad situation for other Countries and it will continue to get worse before it gets better. That's assuming it does get better. I know many don't want to doubt Ukraines inevitable success here but at this point absolutely nothing is inevitable. I'm not quite sure the seriousness of the situation is being fully understood by many outside of Ukraine.'

It is very much the Western coalition/NATO against Russia, a massive conflict in all but name, luckily for us one named by Putin as a 'Special Military Operation.'

One where a surrogate, Ukraine, is taking the blows, destruction and casualties that a war of this type costs.

As such, one where cosseted comfortable well looked after populations in Western Europe who have enjoyed a 2 year state sponsored/subsidised 'holiday', are now focused on striking for more pay due to an increase in the cost of living...completely oblivious of its causes...or the extraordinary hardships and sacrifices being inflicted upon the latest target of Putin's/Russia's aggressive and totally unacceptable behaviour.

The danger of donor fatigue is very real, Western populations have been protected to the point of being, to a large extent, isolated from the harsh realities that exist outside their comfortable bubbles of existence.

Peace in Western Europe has created a weakness, and divorce from harsh reality. A time when the more frivolous, ridiculous 'woke' concerns have become the focus of their attention.

The critical importance of the outcome of this conflict is passing over the majority of soft... too protected populations, who simply are failing to realise their priorities endanger their soft existences.

 

[Emcon Ecomcon]

@Dave-the-rave some very pertinent points made. Sorry unable to award an excellent due Forum restrictions. Thanks @Stonker.

'If Russia can continue to replace poor soldiers with ever more poor soldiers, without the Russian population kicking off big style, Ukraine is in trouble. There's a lot of big IF's there of course but this is all bad and it ain't getting better anytime soon. I see no evidence Putin has lost the plot. I do see evidence they intend to go for broke here. They are all in and intend to keep going for as long as they can.

The other big unknown is how long can/will 'we' keep going, and how fast can we give Ukraine what it needs. I suspect 'we' are actually pretty much all in as well ie 'we' are giving them what we can spare, what we can buy, and what we can manufacture, as fast as we can. If it's not enough then it's not enough. This is a really bad situation for Ukraine. It is becoming a bad situation for other Countries and it will continue to get worse before it gets better. That's assuming it does get better. I know many don't want to doubt Ukraines inevitable success here but at this point absolutely nothing is inevitable. I'm not quite sure the seriousness of the situation is being fully understood by many outside of Ukraine.'

It is very much the Western coalition/NATO against Russia, a massive conflict in all but name, luckily for us one named by Putin as a 'Special Military Operation.'

One where a surrogate, Ukraine, is taking the blows, destruction and casualties that a war of this type costs.

As such, one where cosseted comfortable well looked after populations in Western Europe who have enjoyed a 2 year state sponsored/subsidised 'holiday', are now focused on striking for more pay due to an increase in the cost of living...completely oblivious of its causes...or the extraordinary hardships and sacrifices being inflicted upon the latest target of Putin's/Russia's aggressive and totally unacceptable behaviour.

The danger of donor fatigue is very real, Western populations have been protected to the point of being, to a large extent, isolated from the harsh realities that exist outside their comfortable bubbles of existence.

Peace in Western Europe has created a weakness, and divorce from harsh reality. A time when the more frivolous, ridiculous 'woke' concerns have become the focus of their attention.

The critical importance of the outcome of this conflict is passing over the majority of soft... too protected populations, who simply are failing to realise their priorities endanger their soft existences.

Its nice to see a balanced view of the conflict and the military situation is far worse than Ukraine is letting on.

Negative events will eventually start to accumulate and when people admit that Ukraine is losing, everyone will start to panic at the top, as the appearance of control is all they're are interested in.. In the United States is the November elections, which will change the politics of the war in America and Putin fighting on until next spring now seems to be a high probability and the longer the war the worse it will get for Ukraine.

As for Europe; your right to spot that the majority has very little interest in the war. I think your wrong its down to softness and its been known for awhile, that most western countries have a declining 'social capital' and that was intentional as the EU wanted populations to have less faith in there states and that process went too far and now everyone is an individual or citizen and has no responsibility for anything. Russia isn't a threat to western Europe, no matter how much NATO talks up the threat and that is a very ugly truth.

 

[Fwederick]

IMHO? Which is worthless, the only credible way of halting this shitfest is for “Russians to revolt”. The Navalny chap was/is a champion for “Rights”, he is as much a Russian as Putin but with a perspective that does not fit the regime because they feel threatened (or their corrupt lifestyle is threatenEd)

To stop this war in the Ukrain you must have a “Change of Perspective” from Russians. And I sense it is starting

It's a Zombie Nation fed on hate of the West. Similar Political system to North Korea both relics of by gone age.

 

[Emcon Ecomcon]

Waste of time trying to reason with stupidity and the fantasies and lies of an agenda driven ejit.

Just have fun pointing out the ridiculous, the false and the lies.

Until such time as the ridiculous, the false and the lies become closer and closer to the truth and then wouldn't you and all the self proclaimed experts look very silly.