How will the Ukraine war end?

How will the Ukraine war end?

  • Rebels win,Eastern Ukraine goes independent

    Votes: 107 48.9%
  • Putin invades Kiev, NATO doesn't move

    Votes: 63 28.8%
  • Putin invades Kiev, NATO fights Russia

    Votes: 13 5.9%
  • Rebels lose, Ukraine stays united

    Votes: 36 16.4%

  • Total voters
    219
Suppose that a car was seen in a traffic accident and fled. But it was sold, has now different owner and another driver. Yes, the car can be detained by police but has to be released because there is no ground for its long detention.
Based on? What forensic tests need completing? What reason was it seized? There’s plenty of reasons to seize and retain pending enquiries. Or does Russia not do that?
Btw, the tanker at time didn't violate any rules, any (even) Ukrainian laws.
Based on Russia’s interpretation of access
I suspect that the tanker was directed to Ukrainian port (reportedly for repair) just to test the Ukrainian side and create profitable for Moscow situation.
Could be. Could be the ‘crooks and thieves’ have some left and right hand problems.
 
The Guardian has a story to the effect that "newly collated evidence documenting Russian military involvement in
in Ukraine" will be used in the European Court of Human Rights in claims against the Russian state by Ukrainian volunteer fighters... " The evidence, which includes the alleged "presence of a model of tank used only by the Russian armed forces at that time" has been published online and can be accessed via the Guardian story:
The story also says that a Russian law implemented two years ago allows for domestic courts to overrule ECHR decisions if they are deemed incompatible with Russia’s constitution, meaning it is possible that payments in the cases would not be made, given Russia’s denial of its involvement in the war. I know that some here (but not me) would like the UK to adopt a similar measure.
 
The Guardian has a story to the effect that "newly collated evidence documenting Russian military involvement in
in Ukraine" will be used in the European Court of Human Rights in claims against the Russian state by Ukrainian volunteer fighters... " The evidence, which includes the alleged "presence of a model of tank used only by the Russian armed forces at that time" has been published online and can be accessed via the Guardian story:
The story also says that a Russian law implemented two years ago allows for domestic courts to overrule ECHR decisions if they are deemed incompatible with Russia’s constitution, meaning it is possible that payments in the cases would not be made, given Russia’s denial of its involvement in the war. I know that some here (but not me) would like the UK to adopt a similar measure.
Let's look as present legal status of Donbass. I mean 2 so called 'Peoples republics'. They are unrecognised internationally separatist entities. Now let's ask ourselves.
Is there any international treaty, agreement that makes arms supplies (open or covert) to such an entity illegal? No.
So while US multi-billion arms supplies to Taiwan are not welcomed by China, there are no any legal means to stop them. At the same time Taiwan remains, at least from formal point of view, separatist entity not recognised internationally.
Even if one day Moscow would openly supply Donbass separatists with modern weapons then it would not have any legal consequences. The ECHR could make any decisions but on what ground?
 
Let's look as present legal status of Donbass. I mean 2 so called 'Peoples republics'. They are unrecognised internationally separatist entities. Now let's ask ourselves.
Is there any international treaty, agreement that makes arms supplies (open or covert) to such an entity illegal? No.
So while US multi-billion arms supplies to Taiwan are not welcomed by China, there are no any legal means to stop them. At the same time Taiwan remains, at least from formal point of view, separatist entity not recognised internationally.
Even if one day Moscow would openly supply Donbass separatists with modern weapons then it would not have any legal consequences. The ECHR could make any decisions but on what ground?
From the linked article:

"While Ukrainian soldiers were handed back to the Ukrainian military, the volunteers were turned over by the Russians to separatist fighters, and many of them were held for several months. The men allege they were tortured and subjected to forced labour, and they now want Russia to be held accountable and are seeking damages at the ECHR."

Case papers appear yet to be published but it would be reasonable to assume that the alleged presence of a tank type (T-72B3) only used by Russian state forces would form an evidential part of a case which seeks to link Russian state forces with the handing over to and alleged subsequent mistreatment by separatist fighters of whatever nationality. The alleged facts would also amount to a breach of the Third Geneva Convention.
 
Ukraine has signed accords with rebels which allow local elections to be held in eastern Ukraine. This is one of the steps to be taken in ending the war.
Ukraine on Tuesday signed much-anticipated accords with separatists from the country's east, Russia and European monitors that agree a local election can be held in separatist-controlled territory, paving the way for peace talks with Moscow.

The signing at a meeting in the Belarusian capital Minsk was largely seen as the new Ukrainian government taking a major step toward a resolution of the prolonged armed conflict in eastern Ukraine that has killed more than 13,000 people and displaced more than one million since 2014.
Both Kiev and the rebels agreed that they would consider the elections to be valid provided monitors from the OSCE declared them to be free and fair.
Both the separatists and Ukraine agreed the election would be considered valid as long as monitors from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe determine they were free and fair, Zelensky said.
Signing this agreement was considered to be the final precondition before a summit between Ukrainian president Zelensky, Vladimir Putin, and the leaders of France and Germany. Macron said that he expects the meeting to happen within a few weeks. Russia had previously said they would not meet unless Ukraine signed the above mentioned agreement to hold local elections.
The election agreement was seen as the final hurdle before a summit between Zelensky, Russian President Vladimir Putin and the leaders of France and Germany, who have helped mediate the peace talks. French President Emmanuel Macron said earlier Tuesday that he expects the summit to happen in the coming weeks.

Russia previously declined to sit down with Ukraine unless it signed an agreement on holding a local election.
Some of the Ukrainian politicians who were voted out of office in the recent elections condemned the accords, and nationalist protested against the accords in Kiev.
Former Ukrainian officials and lawmakers who were voted out of office earlier this year following a landslide victory by Zelensky and his allies expressed concern Tuesday that Kyiv was giving up its sovereignty over the east by signing the accords.

Former parliamentary speaker Andriy Parubiy, in a Facebook post on Tuesday, slammed the plan for a local election as "an attempt to dismantle the Ukrainian state" and pledged to fight against what he described as "capitulation."

Parubiy's supporters and other nationalist activists gathered outside the Ukrainian presidential administration late Tuesday to protest the agreement. Some of the activists held a banner saying "No to capitulation!"
In Moscow, officials welcomed the news of the signing and said they hoped the upcoming summit would lead to progress.
In Moscow, officials and pro-Kremlin politicians welcomed the accords.

Alexsey Pushkov, chair of the information committee in the upper chamber of the Russian parliament, hailed the agreement as "our major achievement" and expressed hope that the four-way summit, the first to be held since 2016, "could lead to a noticeable progress in [our] relations with Europe."
 
Signing this agreement was considered to be the final precondition before a summit between Ukrainian president Zelensky, Vladimir Putin, and the leaders of France and Germany. Macron said that he expects the meeting to happen within a few weeks. Russia had previously said they would not meet unless Ukraine signed the above mentioned agreement to hold local elections.
Local elections in Donbass recognised by Kiev and international community is the key point. Let people say - it is the best way to resolve the conflict. After the elections Kiev will have to speak with representatives of the people, will have to take their position into account. Previously, Kiev resisted the elections for years because the result is easily predictable.
Btw, the same solution can be used in Crimea. Let people say. Local elections recognised by Kiev and international community would open the way for the new referendum about the status of the peninsula. And again the result is easily predictable.
 
Local elections in Donbass recognised by Kiev and international community is the key point. Let people say - it is the best way to resolve the conflict. After the elections Kiev will have to speak with representatives of the people, will have to take their position into account. Previously, Kiev resisted the elections for years because the result is easily predictable.
Btw, the same solution can be used in Crimea. Let people say. Local elections recognised by Kiev and international community would open the way for the new referendum about the status of the peninsula. And again the result is easily predictable.
There are times when you are genuinely funny
 
The 'War' ended the second it even began. This is just the post death twitching of Ukraine's corpse. Russia will continue to nibble and take and take until Putin has the Soviet Union territories back.

This was never a war, it was a massacre with a pre-determined outcome.
 
Local elections in Donbass recognised by Kiev and international community is the key point. Let people say - it is the best way to resolve the conflict. After the elections Kiev will have to speak with representatives of the people, will have to take their position into account. Previously, Kiev resisted the elections for years because the result is easily predictable.
Btw, the same solution can be used in Crimea. Let people say. Local elections recognised by Kiev and international community would open the way for the new referendum about the status of the peninsula. And again the result is easily predictable.
And while I'm at it, Yes, it is predictable. Russia wouldn't know democracy if it walked in and kicked them in the teeth.

Any referendum or poll would be rigged and deliver the Russian mandated result.

As an example on rigged votes.....Diem was warned not to rig the voting in his elections and to allow a fair referendum on reuniting Vietnam. He ignored it and rigged the election..... and millions reaped the worlwind over the coming decades.

If your country continues to meddle and walk all over the rights and freedoms of former Soviet nations...... your day will come and when the have you on your knees there will be nobody interested in stopping your fall.

 
Any referendum or poll would be rigged and deliver the Russian mandated result.
If elections or/and referendum in Crimea would be conducted under tough international control with huge number of independent observers then it would reflect the will of the people.
 
Former president Poroschenko has joined in condemning current president Zelensky for signing the peace accord with the eastern rebels, calling it a "capitulation".
"This is capitulation to Russia," former Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko, now a lawmaker, told reporters in parliament on Wednesday.

Poroshenko said the deal is "playing into Russia's hands" because Ukraine committed to holding the local election but did not receive any guarantees that it would regain control over of all of its border with Russia.
 
I'm happy that you noted it.
It's how the EU works, keep having votes til you win and then it's democratic. Oh the Eurasian plate is going to have fun
If elections or/and referendum in Crimea would be conducted under tough international control with huge number of independent observers then it would reflect the will of the people.
Oh yeah-stop it my sides are splitting
Former president Poroschenko has joined in condemning current president Zelensky for signing the peace accord with the eastern rebels, calling it a "capitulation".
And the subhead says it all, statement of the bleedin obvious
 
Let's look as present legal status of Donbass. I mean 2 so called 'Peoples republics'. They are unrecognised internationally separatist entities. Now let's ask ourselves.
Is there any international treaty, agreement that makes arms supplies (open or covert) to such an entity illegal? No.
So while US multi-billion arms supplies to Taiwan are not welcomed by China, there are no any legal means to stop them. At the same time Taiwan remains, at least from formal point of view, separatist entity not recognised internationally.
Even if one day Moscow would openly supply Donbass separatists with modern weapons then it would not have any legal consequences. The ECHR could make any decisions but on what ground?
funnier still, all arms sales are controlled by international agreement. "Gun running"is illegal because it undermines the licencing and end use regimes. China has it's own axes to grind-so it's legal for Russia to supply weapons to separatists- basically because to them, it crosses no border they have artificially created . Nice one. The audience are loving it.
 
Congressman Max Rose, Chair of the Homeland Security Subcommittee on Intelligence and Counterterrorism, led a letter with 39 other Members of Congress to the Secretary of State today demanding answers as to why white supremacist extremist groups are not included on the list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTO).
It's interesting that 40 USA legislators demand to recognise as a terrorist organization (among others)
Rose’s letter names Azov Battalion
It is Ukrainian nationalist military unit.
1571739944102.png
 
A perhaps untimely reminder of previous agreements with Ukraine. Calling in old debts could be a 'Whoops, Apocalypse' moment waiting to happen.

'Schiff highlights history of Ukraine giving up its nukes — and the U.S. promise in return.

'In the latter decades before the breakup of the Soviet Union, the Soviets had so many of their nuclear weapons in Ukraine that, when the breakup occurred and Ukraine became an independent state, Ukraine had the third largest number of nuclear weapons of any nation on earth.

'As Schiff told the tale (and it rings a bell), the first leaders of the newly independent nation of Ukraine didn’t volunteer to give those weapons up as a check against potential Russian aggression. But the United States was worried about nuclear proliferation, as Schiff told the story, and Washington told Ukraine’s new leaders that if they would agree to give up their (formerly Soviet) nukes, we would ensure the territorial integrity of the new independent state against Russian aggression. And Ukraine did agree to allow the removal from its territory of those nukes.'


 
A perhaps untimely reminder of previous agreements with Ukraine. Calling in old debts could be a 'Whoops, Apocalypse' moment waiting to happen.

'Schiff highlights history of Ukraine giving up its nukes — and the U.S. promise in return.

'In the latter decades before the breakup of the Soviet Union, the Soviets had so many of their nuclear weapons in Ukraine that, when the breakup occurred and Ukraine became an independent state, Ukraine had the third largest number of nuclear weapons of any nation on earth.

'As Schiff told the tale (and it rings a bell), the first leaders of the newly independent nation of Ukraine didn’t volunteer to give those weapons up as a check against potential Russian aggression. But the United States was worried about nuclear proliferation, as Schiff told the story, and Washington told Ukraine’s new leaders that if they would agree to give up their (formerly Soviet) nukes, we would ensure the territorial integrity of the new independent state against Russian aggression. And Ukraine did agree to allow the removal from its territory of those nukes.'


It seemed like a good deal then. Sorting it out would be another matter.
 
It seemed like a good deal then. Sorting it out now would be another matter.
I think you missed a bit, from the prostrate Yeltsin era to today's resurgent Putin Novorossiya.
 
It seemed like a good deal then. Sorting it out would be another matter.
Especially given the emphasis at the time the US was placing on self determination of the peoples as justification for intervening in conflicts between states and seceding entities.
 
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