How will the Ukraine war end?

How will the Ukraine war end?

  • Rebels win,Eastern Ukraine goes independent

    Votes: 107 48.9%
  • Putin invades Kiev, NATO doesn't move

    Votes: 63 28.8%
  • Putin invades Kiev, NATO fights Russia

    Votes: 13 5.9%
  • Rebels lose, Ukraine stays united

    Votes: 36 16.4%

  • Total voters

Grey Fox

*Russian Troll*
The new Chief of Ukrainian SVR was awarded with FSB-medal 'For the battle cooperation'
Новый глава украинской разведки награжден медалью ФСБ

"The Deputy of the Verkhovna Rada Vladislav Bukharev appointed on Tuesday, June 11, to a post of the Chairman of service Of foreign intelligence (SVR), has a medal of Federal security service (FSB) of Russia "For battle cooperation". This is stated in the Bukharev's group in Facebook.
So, lets wait for cleanings - Septic agents will be fired, Russians agents will be hired.
It is the Borderland, babies.

Whining Civvy

War Hero
I'm sure they had a good laugh when we starting using Beijing instead of Peking as well. Who cares?

Grey Fox

*Russian Troll*
I'm sure they had a good laugh when we starting using Beijing instead of Peking as well. Who cares?
Russians still use form "Pekin" (Northen pronouncation, usually preffered by Russians). Nobody cares in English-speaking world. But I really want to see representatives of a world's superpower, speaking like the village idiots.
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EU agrees to extend Russia economic sanctions for six months - spokesman - Reuters
EU sanctions extended unanimously for six months as there's a lack of implementation of the Minsk agreement::
European Union leaders unanimously agreed to extend sanctions against Russia for another six months because Moscow is not implementing the peace agreements for Ukraine, a spokesman said on Thursday.

“Russia sanctions unanimously extended for another six months because of a lack of Minsk Agreements implementation,” the spokesman tweeted from an EU summit.
President Zelenskiy will be visiting Toronto today to attend a major international conference on the future of Ukraine which Canada is hosting.
Zelenskiy, a popular actor and comedian with no previous political experience, is to meet Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at a major international conference on his future that opens today, and that Canada is hosting.
The conference will last 3 days, and will have representatives from 30 countries as well as organisations such as the IMF and World Bank.
Shevchenko says the three-day conference will see representatives from 30 countries participating as well as representatives from major international institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
PM Trudeau and foreign minister Freeland will be present at the conference. Canada was the first western country to recognise Ukrainian independence in 1991, and has maintained strong support for them since.

Canada has offered to train Zelenskiy's officials in how to actually run a government, as few of them have any experience.
Canada has offered Zelenskiy's officials training in how to actually run a government because they lack experience and are running a country whose institutions are not as strong as those in the West.
Ukrainian guardsman Markiv sentenced to 24 years in prison in Italy – media
Ukrainian guardsman Vitaliy Markiv, accused of involvement in the murder of Italian photographer Andrea Rocchelli in Donbas in 2014, has been sentenced to 24 years in prison by the Italian court in the city of Pavia.
Mr.Markiv reportedly has dual Ukrainian/Italian citizenship.
Abulance with the Italian journalist marked by the Red Cross allegely was hit by RPG from Ukrainian side.
Ukraine want to buy more Western weapons, but Canada is telling them that they must overhaul their military and develop a clear defence policy before Canada will sell them more weapons or access to Canadian military technology.
Ukraine needs to carry out deep structural reforms and develop a clear defence policy before it goes on a shopping spree for sophisticated Western and Canadian military equipment, says Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan.

The issue of Canadian-Ukrainian military and defence industry cooperation was on the agenda for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy when the two leaders met on the sidelines of the Ukraine Reform Conference in Toronto last week.

Speaking to reporters after their first meeting, Zelenskiy said Ukraine is particularly interested in acquiring Canadian armoured vehicles.
Canada's defence minister (Sajjan) said that other countries have donated equipment to Ukraine, but it's still sitting in shipping containers because the Ukrainians have no comprehensive defence plan for putting it to use.
But Sajjan told Radio Canada International that before Ukraine and Canada can deepen their defence cooperation further, Ukraine needs to figure out what kind of a military it wants.

Instead of focusing on immediate equipment needs, the Ukrainian government needs to invest its efforts in building its defence institutions, he said.

"I've been there and seen other nations' donated equipment, but they're sitting in sea containers," Sajjan said. "If you go and have chunks of this and that, it doesn't really work very well. What we're trying to do while we're there is helping them to come up with the appropriate plan."
A US analyst and former high ranking Pentagon official said that Sajjan's approach is "absolutely right", and that the Ukrainians need to overhaul their institutions before going shopping.
Michael Carpenter is managing director of the Penn Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global Engagement and a former high-ranking Pentagon official with responsibility for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia. He said Sajjan's approach is "absolutely right" — that Ukraine needs to get serious about deep structural reforms to its defence institutions.
Meanwhile the Russians have modernised and reformed "prodigiously and prolifically" and their modern equipment is far more advanced than Ukraine's obsolete technology. To modernise, the Ukrainians need to buy new technology from the West.
"The Russian military has modernized and reformed, especially over the last ten years, rather prodigiously and prolifically," Carpenter said.

To defend itself, Ukraine needs capabilities that can match Russia's sophisticated new weaponry, he said.

"For certain types of military equipment, like anti-tank weapons, like air defence systems, they really need to purchase or receive those systems from Western partners."
However, the Ukrainian arms industry is massively corrupt and opaque, and Western companies are reluctant to do business with them.
But Western companies are leery of investing in Ukraine because of a business climate rife with corruption and its opaque defence industry — dominated by the giant quasi-state company Ukroboronprom, which is made up of over 130 separate entities and employs more than 80,000 people, Carpenter said.

This has been the main obstacle to Western defence companies setting up shop in Ukraine, he added: until Ukroboronprom is thoroughly reformed, there is little chance of substantial Western investment in the Ukrainian defence industry.

So far, only a few small- and medium-sized Western arms manufacturers have shown an interest in investing in Ukraine's defence industry.
Ukraine is already on the list of countries which can buy military equipment from Canada and there is a defence cooperation agreement in place.
Having placed Ukraine on its list of countries permitted to buy Canadian military equipment and weapons, and having signed a defence cooperation agreement with Kyiv, Ottawa already has created the legal foundation for eventual arms sales or defence technology transfers, Sajjan said.
New president Zelenskiy has said that Ukraine is particularly interested in acquiring Canadian armoured vehicles.
Speaking to reporters after their first meeting, Zelenskiy said Ukraine is particularly interested in acquiring Canadian armoured vehicles.
A Canadian company has already invested in an ammunition factory in Ukraine.
Trudeau said, without offering details, that a Canadian company has invested in an ammunition factory in Ukraine already.
Colt Canada (formerly Diemaco before being bought by Colt) have been talking to the Ukrainians about upgrading their small arms manufacturing systems.
Colt Canada — an Ontario-based arms manufacturer and a subsidiary of the U.S.-owned Colt's Manufacturing LLC — supplies the Canadian military and several police forces with small arms (assault rifles, machine guns and carbines); it's one of the companies seriously looking at investing in Ukraine. (...)

Colt Canada will provide Ukraine with guidance on how to create a manufacturing operation that fits Western standards, he said.

It sounds like there will be no quick and easy solution to overhauling Ukraine's military or defence industries.
Oh yes, such 'prononsation' smells like a pig's manure, say nothing, that there is no such sounds in English language.
It makes sense in Welsh, you still pronounce it Kiev
The Italian far right caught smuggling weapons to the separatists:

Italy seizes missile in raids on far right

And the Kremlin has the cheek to label Kyiv as a nest of fascists.
Interestingly the missile is French made and used to belong to Qatar. Given the wide range of kit seized, I have to wonder if arms smuggling is this gang's normal full time business rather than just something they do on the side. If so, then they may have a long list of other dodgy customers they deal with as well.
Italy seizes air-to-air missile, guns in raids on neo-Nazis - Reuters
Selling arms on WhatsApp :) Looks like the local plod were investigating the activities of Italian fighters with extremist backgrounds who had taken part in the fighting in E Ukraine. As above, a decent haul of varied kit. Not sure what the separatists have got which can fire an 'air to air' missile, but no doubt their friends next door will help. More likely 'rigged' to fire from a ground role as they don't appear to have much GBAD any more:
“The police investigation ... came into being because of the activities of some Italian fighters with extremist backgrounds who had taken part in the armed conflict in the Ukrainian region of Donbass,” the police statement said. “The police investigation ... came into being because of the activities of some Italian fighters with extremist backgrounds who had taken part in the armed conflict in the Ukrainian region of Donbass,” the police statement said.
Quick <COPY @ PASTE> . . . .

Published by: Iana Dreyer of Borderlex in Paris, BNE INTELLINEWS, on 18 July 2019.

Ukraine’s slow but steady westward trade path.

Five years after the Maidan revolution, the ‘deep and comprehensive’ free trade agreement (DCFTA) between the European Union and Ukraine is turning out to be an important vehicle in the Eastern European country’s gradual economic decoupling from Russia. It is also buttressing the country’s slow but steady reform path.

A lifeline.

“The DCFTA came as a lifeline to Ukraine,” said Nazar Bobitski, who heads the trade section in the Ukrainian Mission of Ukraine to the EU in Brussels.

In 2016, the year it came into force, Ukraine had undergone traumatic events. Russia had annexed Crimea two years earlier. Moscow was fostering violent unrest in the Donbas — Ukraine’s industrial heartland. Russia had also cancelled a 1990s bilateral free trade agreement tied to the post-Soviet Community of Independent States. The two neighbours have been stepping up tit-for-tat trade bans ever since. Moscow only recently stopped blocking transit of Ukrainian products sold to countries in Central Asia.

The trigger of the crisis was the very decision by Ukraine to sign on to an Association Agreement with the EU of which the trade pact known as DCFTA is the pillar. The association pact’s main objective is to tie Ukraine to European political norms and initiate a process of regulatory approximation with the EU. Russia induced then Ukrainian leader Viktor Yanukovich not to put his signature under the deal. This triggered mass protests and a political revolution in Ukraine.

Trade diversification.

Five years after the Maidan ‘revolution’, Ukraine is clearly on a path of deepening economic integration with the EU. In 2014, the EU absorbed 32% of Ukraine’s exports. Four years later, 43% of Ukrainian exports went to the EU. Exports to Russia dropped significantly. Russia absorbed 18% of Ukrainian exports in 2014. That figure is down to 8%. The share of Ukrainian exports going to the rest of the world remained stable.

The very nature of EU-Ukraine trade is also evolving. Ukraine is known for being an agricultural commodities and metals exporter. Agriculture remains a top speciality of Ukraine, where cereals, oil seeds, animal or vegetable fats and oils dominate the picture. Exports of meat – especially poultry meat – dairy, fish and fruit and vegetables to the EU have increased significantly. “Ukraine became the EU’s fourth-biggest supplier of agricultural products in 2017, and the first supplier among our FTA partners,” reads a European Commission report on the functioning of its trade agreements.

Ukraine’s ability to export more to the EU is linked to the gradual roll-out of EU sanitary and phytosanitary standards in the country. Ukraine has not been able to use quotas allocated to it in the DCFTA for sheep, pork and beef meat, “due to non-compliance with EU SPS regimes,” said the Commission.

Yet EU-Ukraine trade is increasingly defined by industrial supply-chain trade, whereas metals and heavy industry – part of which are now beyond reach in the Donbas – play a smaller role.

Evolution of Ukrainian goods exports. A clear reorientation away from Russia and towards the European Union.

According to the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting in Kyiv, the share of processed products in Ukrainian exports to the EU increased by 10% to 43% between 2013 and 2018. The share of raw materials dropped by 5%, the rest being absorbed by semi-processed goods.

Ukraine is well positioned in the global tech industry. Exports of telecommunication, computer and information services increased from US$ 1.7 billion in 2014 to US$ 2.1 billion in 2018. Ukraine’s tech geeks increasingly look to the EU as a market.

Western Ukraine is integrating European automobile manufacturing supply chains with local and international investors supply car parts and other inputs to car producers in EU member states in Central Europe.

Economic integration is set to continue as Ukraine rolls out EU regulations in the manufacturing and services sectors. The DCFTA foresees 27 sectors – including toys, marine equipment, medical devices and electrical equipment — in which Ukraine will apply dedicated EU technical and environmental regulations.

The DCFTA further foresees that Ukraine align its legislation with the EU’s in postal and courier services, telecommunication, financial services and international maritime transport services.

“In general, implementation of the Agreement and approximation of legislation are advancing at reasonable pace,” European Commission staff reckon. Veronika Movchan, director of the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, said the regulatory approximation process of Ukraine started years before the DCFTA came into force and still continues. “It’s a long, gradual process,” said Movchan.

Movchan’s institute asked Ukrainian businesses if they expected any benefits from the DCFTA going forward and if they had gained at all so far: 41% of the polled said they expected a positive impact of the deal on their business, 28% said they had gained.

The big prize the Ukrainian government is aiming for is the Agreement on Conformity Assessment and Acceptance of Industrial Products, a deal promised to Ukraine once it has put in place relevant EU technical legislation. Once such a deal is approved then Ukrainian products would receive automatic single market treatment and avoid costly extra import checks in the EU.

The EU enjoys a trade surplus with Ukraine. It sells machinery and appliances, chemical products, transport equipment, mineral products, plastics, rubber and textiles to its eastern neighbour.

Despite misgivings from parts of the EU’s farming sector, which is feeling the heat of Ukrainian competition, European business and farmers are also benefiting. The European Commission notes “an increasing appetite for EU agriculture produce” in Ukraine. Between 2013 and 2017, EU exports of live animals and animal products increased by 21% although from a lower level from €250 million to €304 million. Exports of foodstuffs, beverages and tobacco increased by 19.5% to € 940 million while vegetables saw an increase of 13.4% to €537 million,” the EU’s executive body noted in its staff report.


The rise in bilateral trade has not come without frictions. This year the EU asked Ukraine for a renegotiation of a poultry tariff rate quota after a successful Ukrainian businessman found a loophole to circumvent an EU chicken breast quota, by importing chicken with bones and deboning them in a factory he owned and which was located in the EU.

Three years into the deal, the EU initiated one of its first formal legal disputes under a bilateral trade agreement. The EU is disputing Ukraine’s ban on exports of wood, referring to a WTO rule on export restrictions that Kyiv and Brussels had integrated into the DCFTA.

The two sides are still in the process of appointing a panel of arbitrators that would assess if Ukraine has breached the terms of the deal. If, at the end of the process, Ukraine is found in violation of the agreement and to continue not to comply, the EU could cancel trade benefits under the DCFTA.

The government in Kyiv is not resisting the process. The wood topic is sensitive back home. The government knows it needs to tackle a delicate situation involving state-owned enterprises in charge of managing forests in Western Ukraine – whose role is both commercial and to fulfil environmental goals. The well-intentioned wood export ban however does not appear to solve an acute problem of deforestation and smuggling.

No panacea for Ukraine.

The DCFTA has not been a panacea for Ukraine. The country’s output growth levels of 2.5% per year since 2015-2016 have been positive, but well below what Ukraine needs to lift its population out of poverty in a sustained manner.

Ukraine has failed to attract the high levels of foreign direct investment its leaders had hoped for. Foreign direct investment flows have not recovered from the 2014 crisis. Five years ago Ukraine attracted more than $53bn worth of foreign investments. That figure has hovered around $32bn annually since 2016. Ukraine’s reputation for corruption and the many local and regional political uncertainties appear to have played a role in deterring foreigners in committing monies to the country.

Movchan says that the DCFTA has in fact above all emboldened Ukrainian investors in betting on the country – mainly by repatriating money stashed in offshore jurisdictions. In Ukraine, the agreement is clearly perceived as an anchor for Ukraine on its path towards a more modern government and economy.

Despite headwinds Ukraine is making gradual progress in tackling corruption and fixing its business environment. In 2014,Ukraine ranked 136th in the world-famous Corruption Perceptions Index of the NGO Transparency International. In 2019, Ukraine ranked 120th. Ukraine’s score in the World Bank’s Doing Business index is also on an upward trend, with Ukraine ranking 71st globally: that’s a better position than the EU’s very own Greece.

Both Ukraine and the EU recognise that the DCFTA needs to be modernised and updated. During the EU-Ukraine summit this year, Brussels and Kyiv already agreed to discuss digital, customs and energy matters – a sign of potentially more to come when the deal is formally up for revision in two or three years’ time.


Data and graph: Institute of Economic Policy Research and Consulting.

Ukraine’s slow but steady westward trade path | bne IntelliNews
Ukraine seizes Russian tanker, frees crew after Moscow threat - Reuters
Flappers should stop flapping. Russian crew released as the Bear got antsy (despite seizing Uke crew and ships earlier). It's the same tanker used to block passage of Uke Navy vessels. Old name painted out. New name over written.
Suppose that a car was seen in a traffic accident and fled. But it was sold, has now different owner and another driver. Yes, the car can be detained by police but has to be released because there is no ground for its long detention.
Btw, the tanker at time didn't violate any rules, any (even) Ukrainian laws.
I suspect that the tanker was directed to Ukrainian port (reportedly for repair) just to test the Ukrainian side and create profitable for Moscow situation.
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