How will the Ukraine war end?

How will the Ukraine war end?

  • Rebels win,Eastern Ukraine goes independent

    Votes: 103 48.1%
  • Putin invades Kiev, NATO doesn't move

    Votes: 63 29.4%
  • Putin invades Kiev, NATO fights Russia

    Votes: 13 6.1%
  • Rebels lose, Ukraine stays united

    Votes: 35 16.4%

  • Total voters
    214

Grey Fox

On ROPS
On ROPs
Russia Must Release Detained Ukrainian Sailors – Maritime Tribunal
ITLOS (International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea) which arbitrates on maritime disputes from the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea, says the Ukrainian sailors and their vessels should be released:
I think, that this 'Tribunal' have to think about transgender rights in South African ports. This case is not their business at all. As it was said when USSR (both Russia and Ukraine) was joining to Sea Law Convention, they didn't accept it in the questions of national security. There was violation of the Russian border, so it is question for Russian courts, not "international tribunals".
 
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I think, that this 'Tribunal' have to think about transgender rights in South African ports. This case is not their business at all. As it was said when USSR (both Russia and Ukraine) was joining to Sea Law Convention, they didn't accept it in the questions of national security. There was violation of the Russian border, so it is question for Russian courts, not "international tribunals".
It won’t surprise me that Russia will ignore the tribunals findings. Russia signed and ratified on 12.03.1997:
Chronological lists of ratifications of
 

Grey Fox

On ROPS
On ROPs
It won’t surprise me that Russia will ignore the tribunals findings. Russia signed and ratified on 12.03.1997:
Chronological lists of ratifications of
First it was USSR who signed Convention of Sea Law and it was said, that according article 298 Russia dont accept right of the Tribunal to judge about state safety questions.
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Article 298 of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea allows state parties to exclude certain categories of disputes from the compulsory procedures entailing binding decisions. This provision serves as a “safety valve” by excluding sensitive issues mainly related to sovereignty.
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And yes funny moment:


The Ukrainian prostitutes, arrested in a pool of one of Moscows sauna demand from the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea to recognise them as sailors.
 
First it was USSR who signed Convention of Sea Law and it was said, that according article 298 Russia dont accept right of the Tribunal to judge about state safety questions.
Nice to know you got some help on this. As per my link:
Chronological lists of ratifications of
Chronological lists of ratifications of, accessions and successions to the Convention and the related Agreements
The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea of 10 December 1982

Russian Federation (12 March 1997)
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Article 298 of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea allows state parties to exclude certain categories of disputes from the compulsory procedures entailing binding decisions. This provision serves as a “safety valve” by excluding sensitive issues mainly related to sovereignty.
As I said, I won't be surprised at russia ignoring the tribunal's findings. Btw:
https://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/unclos_e.pdf
Right of the parties to agree upon a procedure 1.
A dispute excluded under article 297 or excepted by a declaration made under article 298 from the dispute settlement procedures provided for in section 2 may be submitted to such procedures only by agreement of the parties to the dispute.
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And yes funny moment:






The Ukrainian prostitutes, arrested in a pool of one of Moscows sauna demand from the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea to recognise them as sailors.
Keep digging
 
Ukraine's new president seeks pro-Western course, peace with Russia - Reuters
Good luck with that COA. Peace with Russia but wanting to join the EU and NATO. 'Highly unlikely' Russia will allow that:
“The strategic course of Ukraine to achieve fully-fledged membership in the EU and NATO ... remains unchanged,” Zelenskiy told reporters alongside NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg. “This is the priority of our foreign policy.”
Looks like he wants to re-initiate Minsk 2:
“We are ready to negotiate with Russia. We are ready to implement the Minsk agreements. However, we first must be able to protect ourselves,” he said.

“Our common task is to ensure stability and security in the Black Sea region,” Zelenskiy said, adding that his new military Chief of the General Staff would hold peace talks “within the Minsk format” on Wednesday.
 
Ukrainian mass media actively discuss the figure of future PM.
Эксперт о рейтинге Бойко: Люди видят, кто работает в интересах кредиторов, а кто в интересах украинской экономики
During recent opinion poll the Ukrainians were asked - whom do they prefer to see as a PM?
Пзи ві Рей підки па: Тнь-ень 2019
12.9% Boyko - the leader of opposition platform "For life" who has close relations with Kremlin
11.2% Timoshenko - former PM who 3 times tried to be elected as president.
8.1% Smeshko - former head of SBU (secret service)
7.7% Groisman - acting PM.
4.4% Gritsenko - former MoD
2.6% Poroshenko - former president
2.6% Sadoviy - mayor of Lvov
 
Ukrainian mass media actively discuss the figure of future PM.
Эксперт о рейтинге Бойко: Люди видят, кто работает в интересах кредиторов, а кто в интересах украинской экономики
During recent opinion poll the Ukrainians were asked - whom do they prefer to see as a PM?
Пзи ві Рей підки па: Тнь-ень 2019
12.9% Boyko - the leader of opposition platform "For life" who has close relations with Kremlin
11.2% Timoshenko - former PM who 3 times tried to be elected as president.
8.1% Smeshko - former head of SBU (secret service)
7.7% Groisman - acting PM.
4.4% Gritsenko - former MoD
2.6% Poroshenko - former president
2.6% Sadoviy - mayor of Lvov
That is who the public prefer, but whom are they likely to get?
 
That is who the public prefer, but whom are they likely to get?
Highly unlikely it will be mr.Boyko. According to the recent opinion poll Zelensky's party "The servant of the people" has a very big rating - 48,5%. It looks that the future ruling coalition will be under control of Zelensky's team. So likely a person not too well known to general public will be PM.
 
Ukrainian mass media actively discuss the figure of future PM.
Эксперт о рейтинге Бойко: Люди видят, кто работает в интересах кредиторов, а кто в интересах украинской экономики
During recent opinion poll the Ukrainians were asked - whom do they prefer to see as a PM?
Пзи ві Рей підки па: Тнь-ень 2019
12.9% Boyko - the leader of opposition platform "For life" who has close relations with Kremlin
11.2% Timoshenko - former PM who 3 times tried to be elected as president.
8.1% Smeshko - former head of SBU (secret service)
7.7% Groisman - acting PM.
4.4% Gritsenko - former MoD
2.6% Poroshenko - former president
2.6% Sadoviy - mayor of Lvov
Not sure why you missed this statement out?
Also, the respondents were asked the question: "Various options are being discussed now, who can become the Prime Minister after the elections to the Verkhovna Rada. Among the figures in the list [TRANSFER CARD], who would personally like to see you as the Prime Minister after the presidential election? " Answers of respondents were distributed as follows:

Table 2
Who wants to see the prime minister
Бойко Юрій 12.9
Тимошенко Юлія 11.3
Смешко Ігор 8.1
Гройсман Володимир 7.7
Гриценко Анатолій 4
Порошенко Петро 2.6
Садовий Андрій 2.6
Яценюк Арсеній 2.2
Шевченко Олександр 2
Тарута Сергій 1.4
Данилюк Олександр 1
Палиця Ігор 0.5
Коболєв Андрій 0.1
Інший 4
ВАЖКО ВІДПОВІСТИ 36
ВІДМОВА ВІДПОВІДАТИ 3.5

Not sure on the translation of the last two personally
 
Not sure why you missed this statement out?
Also, the respondents were asked the question: "Various options are being discussed now, who can become the Prime Minister after the elections to the Verkhovna Rada. Among the figures in the list [TRANSFER CARD], who would personally like to see you as the Prime Minister after the presidential election? " Answers of respondents were distributed as follows:

Table 2
Who wants to see the prime minister
Бойко Юрій 12.9
Тимошенко Юлія 11.3
Смешко Ігор 8.1
Гройсман Володимир 7.7
Гриценко Анатолій 4
Порошенко Петро 2.6
Садовий Андрій 2.6
Яценюк Арсеній 2.2
Шевченко Олександр 2
Тарута Сергій 1.4
Данилюк Олександр 1
Палиця Ігор 0.5
Коболєв Андрій 0.1
Інший 4
ВАЖКО ВІДПОВІСТИ 36
ВІДМОВА ВІДПОВІДАТИ 3.5


Not sure on the translation of the last two personally
36% It is hard to say
3.5% refused to answer.
Apparent conclusion - there is no superpopular public figure in Ukraine who is seen by the Ukrainians as the best PM.
 
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36% It is hard to say
3.5% refused to answer.
Apparent conclusion - there is no superpopular public figure in Ukraine who is seen by Ukrainian as the best PM.
No, I agree. But who would be Prime Minister if Zelenskiy's part won? I can't see anything here:
Zelenskiy's Servant of the People party unveils candidates for parliament | KyivPost - Ukraine's Global Voice

Interesting manifesto as well:
Ukraine: Zelenskiy's Servant of the People party vows 'radical changes' | DW | 09.06.2019
In a wide-reaching election manifesto, Ukraine's Servant of the People party has promised to clamp down on corruption, move state services online and raise defense spending above 5% GDP as it prepares for its first ever parliamentary election.
..................................
On Sunday, the party published a platform that pledges to end immunity for lawmakers and make it mandatory to confiscate property from corruption offenders. It also seeks to sever the influence that the national police and secret services have on business. Another feature of the manifesto is a complete overhaul of the nation's prosecutors' office.

"Ukraine needs radical changes," the document says. "But the old political system, the system of corruption, lies and despotism, does not want to change."

"We will implement the course of President Zelenskiy with concrete legislation and political decisions," the party adds.

Internationally, the party promises to increase Ukraine's military spending from 3.4% in 2017 to 5%, as well as reform its armed forces based on NATO standards. It also pledges to push through the legislation needed to move closer to the European Union and to expand cooperation with NATO.

The party has also vowed to create a "system of informational reintegration" for people living in separatist regions, though did not provide further details.

Other features include an unspecified "people's veto on newly adopted laws" and an "economic passport" for Ukrainian children, which would see a percentage of funds earned from exploiting the country's natural resources paid to children's bank accounts.

The party also promises to cover 100% of Ukraine's territory with broadband internet and make illegal logging a criminal offense.

This week's polls showed Servant of the People polling at nearly 41%. The runner-up, pro-Kremlin Opposition Platform, is at 9.1%, while the European Solidarity party of former President Petro Poroshenko is third at 6.7%.
Looks like the future members won't be any of the 'old guard' ie all 'new' MPs, so a poll on an unknown would make it quite hard to get a clear lead. They're on about 41% at the moment:
Лещенка не взяли у список партії «Слуга народу»
People's Deputy Sergei Leshchenko did not appear on the list of the "Servant of the People" party, Dmitry Razumkov, chairman of the party, said in response to an open letter from the public organization "National Interest of Ukraine". "We are engaging in our party's new ambitious politicians who are not related to the old system.

Public workers in turn thanked the head of the "Servant of the People" party for their prompt response. Full text here
 
1560324562927.png


Here you may see (from left to right)
Miller - the head of Gazprom
Medvedev - Russian PM
Boyko - the Leader of Opposition platform for Life in Ukraine
Medvedchuk - Ukrainian oligarch and politician, real decision maker in Ukrainian pro-Russian opposition.
New low gas prices for Ukraine are being discussed... of course if mr.Boyko would be at power.

1560324903103.png


Here you may see mr.Medvedchuk with his wife - TV star, popular show-woman Oksana Marchenko the host of shows X-factor, Ukraine has talents, It's time to build.
Mr.Madvedchuk and his wife are very wealthy pair with billions of $$ at their disposal.
Btw, mr.Putin is a God-Father of their daughter. The God-Mother is a wife of PM Medvedev.

Нефть для кумы Путина. Чем владеет в России украинская телеведущая Оксана Марченко
In 2015 a rich oil field in Western Siberia was put on tender to be developed with one strange (from the first glance) condition - the oil should be processed in Rostov area (that borders with Donbass). Gazprom-oil and main Russian oil company Rosneft lost the tender that was won by unknown company from Rostov area.
Now it appears that the oilfield and big oil refinery plant in Rostov area are under control of ... wife of mr.Medvedchuk - mrs.Marchenko through obscure chain of Cyprus offshores.

1560326130413.png


Huge money $2,650,000,000 will be invested in the oil field and the refinery plant. As a result Donbass apparently will not have any problems with fuel.
 

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