How will the Ukraine war end?

How will the Ukraine war end?

  • Rebels win,Eastern Ukraine goes independent

    Votes: 103 48.1%
  • Putin invades Kiev, NATO doesn't move

    Votes: 63 29.4%
  • Putin invades Kiev, NATO fights Russia

    Votes: 13 6.1%
  • Rebels lose, Ukraine stays united

    Votes: 35 16.4%

  • Total voters
    214

Grey Fox

*Russian Troll*
This time Germany is in NATO which has nukes.
I'm sure, Septics are not eager to die for German ambitions. And anyway, Russia have more nukes than the whole NATO. What is more important - Russua is much more close to Germany than USA.

And in any case, according to your quote, they're only suggesting a UN mission on the border.
They suggested to "dismiss" DPR and LPR by German forces. Thats more than enough to "dismiss" Germany, or, to make there lunar landscape.

By the way, you have no navy, and China has. Woohoo.
Thats good. They can distract USA from Europe and Atlantic theatre.
 

Grey Fox

*Russian Troll*
Could be bad, used to help in taking over Siberia.
Oh, Lord. Do you have any understanding of European military history? Do you rember problems of Germans and Frenches in rather warm and civilisated European part of Russia? Now try to imagine China's soldiers from tropical and subtropical part of the state, surviving in the winter taiga, fighting against 'furry beasts' and building transport infrastructure simultaneously. Another moment - big part of China's population is concentrated in two rivers valley, with high difference of levels and big amount of dams. Few hundreds of nukes, and all life-support infrastructure will be collapsed, and hundreds millions will be literally washed out. Add tsunamy in coastal regions - and China will lost 95% of population at the first year of war.
Geography is a fate, and China always was conquered by 'northen barbarians', not vice versa.
 
Oh, Lord. Do you have any understanding of European military history? Do you rember problems of Germans and Frenches in rather warm and civilisated European part of Russia? Now try to imagine China's soldiers from tropical and subtropical part of the state, surviving in the winter taiga, fighting against 'furry beasts' and building transport infrastructure simultaneously. Another moment - big part of China's population is concentrated in two rivers valley, with high difference of levels and big amount of dams. Few hundreds of nukes, and all life-support infrastructure will be collapsed, and hundreds millions will be literally washed out. Add tsunamy in coastal regions - and China will lost 95% of population at the first year of war.
Geography is a fate, and China always was conquered by 'northen barbarians', not vice versa.
You couldn’t afford to go to war with China.
 
It is not just a 'technicality'. Poroshenko is still in control of SBU, and there are enough of illegal bandgroups, nationalistic battalions and so on... Zelenskiy's chances to survive until inaguration are not 100%.
Oo, you're so perceptive aren't you?

Shall we log this comment to check later.
So, @Grey Fox, I see you got it wrong again.

Zelensky survived and has been inaugurated and all seemed to have gone well with the handover of office.

E2A

New Ukraine President Zelensky calls snap election
 
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Zelenskiy was sworn in as president of Ukraine on Monday. He promised to stop the war in the east. More significantly at this time, he immediately dissolved the parliament.
www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-president-sworn-in-dissolves-parliament-1.5142447?cmp=rss
Ukrainian TV star Volodymyr Zelenskiy was sworn in Monday as the new president, promised to stop the war in the East against Russian-backed separatists and immediately dissolved parliament, which he has branded as a group only interested in self-enrichment.
Just prior to dissolving parliament, he called for the firing of the defence minister, the head of the security service, and the prosecutor general. All were seen as being Poroshenko supporters.
After he was sworn in but before he moved to dissolve parliament, Zelenskiy asked the Supreme Rada to adopt a bill against illegal enrichment and support his motions to fire the defence minister, head of the Ukrainian Security Service and the prosecutor general. All of them are allies of former president Petro Poroshenko, who lost the election to the comedian with no previous political experience but who had played the Ukrainian president on a popular TV show for years.
The prime minister has resigned.
In response to Zelenskiy's announcement, Ukraine's Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman said he would step down after the next government meeting on Wednesday and would take part in the upcoming parliamentary election.
Zelenskiy told parliament that his main goal will be to end the war in eastern Ukraine. There were no details on how he intends to do this.
In a feisty speech after his inauguration, Zelenskiy told the Rada his main goal for the presidency is to bring peace to Eastern Ukraine, where government troops have been fighting Russia-backed separatists for five years in a conflict that has left at least 13,000 dead.

"I'm ready to do everything so that our heroes don't die there," he said. "It wasn't us who started that war. But we need to be the one to finish it."
Although Zelenskiy has announced that he has dissolved parliament, there is some dispute over whether he has legal authority to do so. It all comes down to legal limitations involving the timing between the end of the existing parliamentary coalition and the time before the next election is normally scheduled. Zelenskiy's opponents say that what he has done is illegal, while his supporters say it is justified.
Many lawmakers had already viewed Zelenskiy's inauguration with apprehension, and it was not clear if the new president could legally dissolve the sitting parliament. Political factions have been manoeuvring for weeks trying to avoid such a situation.

Zelenskiy hopes to ride the wave of his electoral success to get his supporters into parliament. Ukraine's parliamentary election was scheduled for Oct. 27, and the current legislature's authority expires in late November. The Ukrainian law allows the president to disband the parliament no later than six months before its power expires.

In a bid to deprive Zelenskiy of the opportunity to call an early election, a faction in the Rada had announced its departure from the ruling coalition, technically collapsing Poroshenko's government. The parliament's rules envisage that it cannot be disbanded within 30 days following the announcement of a collapse of the ruling coalition.

Zelenskiy's supporters argued, however, that the motion was legally void because the coalition had long ceased to exist.
Elections were already scheduled for the autumn. Zelenskiy's intention in dissolving parliament now is to take advantage of his initial popularity to try to get more of his supporters elected to parliament.
 

Grey Fox

*Russian Troll*
Chief of the Ukrainian State Investigative Bureau Olga Varchnko, wrote on her Facebook page, that they started investigation against former president Poroshenko in accusation for treason, as he sended Ukrainian boats in Kerch strait.
 
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Ukraine president decrees snap parliamentary election for July 21 - Reuters
Snap elections being held on 21st July after Zelenisky has dissolved Parliament:
Ukraine’s new President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Tuesday issued a decree setting for July 21 as the date for a snap parliamentary election, according to a statement on his website.

Zelenskiy, a political novice before running for the presidency, said on Monday he was dissolving parliament to prepare for an election. The vote would give his new party the opportunity to win seats for the first time.
 
Chief of the Ukrainian State Investigative Bureau Olga Varchnko, wrote on her Facebook page, that they started investigation against former president Poroshenko in accusation for treason, as he sended Ukrainian boats in Kerch strait.
In case anyone else is wondering what our resident loon was wibbling about, it's a spurious allegation by a pro-Russian traitor.

Yanukovych ally suspected of helping Russia annex Crimea seeks ‘treason’ charges against Poroshenko - Human Rights in Ukraine
 

Grey Fox

*Russian Troll*
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Grey Fox

*Russian Troll*
In case anyone else is wondering what our resident loon was wibbling about, it's a spurious allegation by a pro-Russian traitor.

Yanukovych ally suspected of helping Russia annex Crimea seeks ‘treason’ charges against Poroshenko - Human Rights in Ukraine
Not 'Yanukovich ally', but 'advisor of the president of Ukraine', and (before it, in 2005-2010) chief lawyer in Yulia Timoshenko team. Not 'annex' but 'reunion'.
There will be no peace without dialogue, and there will be no dialogue without respect of different points of view, and respect of basic human rights (including right to use one's first language in public relations).
 
Respectable Russian newspaper Kommersant tells about some interesting facts and allegations.
«Похоже, Владимир Зеленский допустил первый серьезный прокол»
Two US citizens of Ukrainian origin, Igor Furman and Lev Parnas, wrote a complaint to law enforcement stuctures stating that buzinessman Igor Kolomoisky had threatened them with murder.
Mr.Kolomoisky is believed to be the main sponsor of the new Ukrainian president Zelensky.
From the first glance it is just an ordinary story - one of many similar ones. But...
Mssrs. Parnas and Furman are clients of attorney Rudolph Giuliani, who, among others, defends Donald Trump, is his personal representative and confidant. It was he who advised these citizens to write a statement on Igor Kolomoisky.
It is interesting that
Mr. Giuliani, as we know, recently canceled a visit to Ukraine, since, according to him, “there are enemies of the US president,” that is, those who supported the Hillary Clinton campaign and, accordingly, played against Trump. Now Rudy Giuliani also calls Kolomoisky "a dangerous person who can harm independent Ukraine."
Recently pres.Zelensky proposed a referendum about negotiations with Russia. But how it is related to the mentioned events? The author of the article in Kommersant asks
And how it is connected to the referendum on negotiations with Russia? The head of the Zelensky's presidential administration is Kolomoisky's man, his personal lawyer Andrei Bogdan. He, in fact, proposed the idea of the referendum.
It looks as both Moscow and Washington are not happy with the new Ukrainian president and regard his as a puppet of enemies of Trump and Putin.
the new Ukrainian leader is surrounded by oligarchs with criminal background. Rudolph Giuliani speaks directly about it.
As for Moscow then in fact pres.Zelensky is 'on ignore'. Mr.Putin hasn't congratulated him and apparently doesn't plan to meet with him anytime soon.
 
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Respectable Russian newspaper Kommersant tells about some interesting facts and allegations.
«Похоже, Владимир Зеленский допустил первый серьезный прокол»

Mr.Kolomoisky is believed to be the main sponsor of the new Ukrainian president Zelensky.
From the first glance it is just an ordinary story - one of many similar ones. But...

It is interesting that

Recently pres.Zelensky proposed a referendum about negotiations with Russia. But how it is related to the mentioned events? The author of the article in Kommersant asks

It looks as both Moscow and Washington are not happy with the new Ukrainian president and regard his as a puppet of enemies of Trump and Putin.

As for Moscow then in fact pres.Zelensky is 'on ignore'. Mr.Putin hasn't congratulated him and apparently doesn't plan to meet with him anytime soon.
Giuliani reportedly cancelled his trip to Ukraine for two reasons. One was that Zelensky's advisors were urging him not to meet with Giuliani. The other is that it could potentially have put him in a position to be arrested by the US opposition under a law which makes it illegal for Americans who do not have an official position to engage in anything that could be construed as diplomacy.

What is behind all of this is that the leading opposition candidate for president in the US is a man named Joe Biden. Biden was vice president from 2009 to 2017. Biden's son Hunter was on the board of directors of a large gas company in Ukraine, Burisma, which was owned by a leading Ukrainian oligarch. Burisma had been under investigation for corruption. Joe Biden went to Ukraine and demanded and got the chief prosecutor fired under threat of withholding US aid.

At this point the political narrative diverges in the US along partisan lines. According to one side Joe Biden got the prosecutor fired to protect his son's business interests in Ukraine, while according to the other side the demands by Joe Biden for the prosecutor to be fired and his son benefiting from this were purely coincidental.

That Joe Biden made this demand on Ukraine however is not in dispute. That there could be grounds for firing a prosecutor for not doing a good enough job in dealing with corruption is on the surface plausible, given the widely acknowledged degree of corruption in Ukraine under Poroshenko. What actually motivated Biden to act in this instance while the US still maintained overall support for Ukraine is where the politics comes into play.

The White House has two political themes they want to pursue in all this. One is the theme that the stories about the alleged collusion between Trump and Russia were cooked up by the Ukrainian government in coordination with Trump's US opponents in order to curry favour with the then US government, Kiev of course not expecting Trump to actually win. The other theme is that Trump's leading political opponent at this time has close family connections to corrupt activities in Ukraine.

Or to put it another way, the Trump line is effectively that there is no Trump-Russia scandal, but rather that there is really a Biden-Ukraine scandal.

I suspect that Zelensky has realised what a potential minefield getting involved in this was and decided that avoiding Giuliani was the safer thing to do while the long term future of the Trump regime is so uncertain.

Giuliani says cancelled visit to Ukraine 'would have accomplished little'
 
Russia Must Release Detained Ukrainian Sailors – Maritime Tribunal
ITLOS (International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea) which arbitrates on maritime disputes from the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea, says the Ukrainian sailors and their vessels should be released:
The Hamburg-based International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) said Russia had to release the sailors and vessels immediately and both nations should refrain from taking any action which might aggravate the dispute.

"The Tribunal notes that any action affecting the immunity of warships is capable of causing serious harm to the dignity and sovereignty of a state and has the potential to undermine its national security," ITLOS President Jin-Hyun Paik said.

Ukraine has already demanded the sailors' release and the return of the impounded vessels, yet Moscow has not heeded the request or similar calls by the EU.

Russia's Foreign Ministry said on Saturday it had not participated in the hearings, adding it intends to defend its point of view that the arbitration lacked the jurisdiction to consider the Kerch incident.

The ITLOS was established to settle maritime disputes by the 1982 U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea, of which both Ukraine andRussia are signatories. But it has no means of enforcing its decisions.
 

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