How will the Ukraine war end?

How will the Ukraine war end?

  • Rebels win,Eastern Ukraine goes independent

    Votes: 102 47.9%
  • Putin invades Kiev, NATO doesn't move

    Votes: 63 29.6%
  • Putin invades Kiev, NATO fights Russia

    Votes: 13 6.1%
  • Rebels lose, Ukraine stays united

    Votes: 35 16.4%

  • Total voters
    213

Grey Fox

*Russian Troll*
He's going to wriggle on that one on a technicality. Zelensky needs to be inaugurated still, so not president just yet.
It is not just a 'technicality'. Poroshenko is still in control of SBU, and there are enough of illegal bandgroups, nationalistic battalions and so on... Zelenskiy's chances to survive until inaguration are not 100%.
 

Grey Fox

*Russian Troll*
How it was written by Jerome K. Jerome?

"The stage villain's career is always very easy and prosperous up to within a minute of the end of each act. Then he gets suddenly let in, generally by the comic man. It always happens so. Yet the villain is always intensely surprised each time. He never seems to learn anything from experience.

[...]

Beware of the comic man. When you are committing a murder or robbing a safe you never look to see where the comic man is. You are so careless in that way. On the whole, it might be as well if you murdered the comic man early in the play."
 
It is not just a 'technicality'. Poroshenko is still in control of SBU, and there are enough of illegal bandgroups, nationalistic battalions and so on... Zelenskiy's chances to survive until inaguration are not 100%.
Oo, you're so perceptive aren't you?

Shall we log this comment to check later.
 
Russia offers passports to east Ukraine, president-elect decries 'aggressor state' - Reuters
Rather than holding out the hand of friendship, looking at doing a deal, particularly on the captured sailors, Putin has decided to make it easier for those Ukrainians in the 'self declared independent' eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk to apply for Russian citizenship. Clearly this makes it easier (if needed) to have the excuse that they are 'rescuing Soviet Russian citizens':
“We have no desire to create problems for the new Ukrainian leadership, but to tolerate a situation in which people living in the territory of Donetsk and Luhansk republic are generally deprived of any civil rights, this is already crossing the line from the point of view of human rights,” Putin said.

Ukraine Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin denounced the move on Twitter as a “continuation of aggression and interference in our internal affairs”, urging Ukrainians living under occupation not to apply for Russian passports.

Ukraine said it had informed the United Nations about Russia’s move and also asked the EU to take “prompt and decisive” action.
E2A:Putin - nothing wrong with us giving passports to east Ukraine residents - Reuters
Of course, he sees nothing wrong with this, saying the same applies to Poland, Romania and Hungary granting citizenship to their ethnic kin outside their borders, and sees no reason why Russia could not do the same. It may have slipped his mind that there's a war with 13,000 dead and some lebensraum ongoing:
“It caused a negative reaction. That’s strange,” Putin said.

“How are Russians in Ukraine worse than Romanians, Poles or Hungarians? I don’t see anything unusual here.”
 
Ukraine's president-elect says being blocked from calling snap poll - Reuters
Zelenskiy may be proclaimed President on 30th April 2019. He said they would delay until after 27th May, but they've apparently come back and said he will be declared the winner on 30th April. Any appointments he chooses need to be approved by the Parliament. He's likely to call a snap election as he has no party members ie before the scheduled one in six months time:
“There is victory, but no authority,” Zelenskiy said in a video posted on social media.

The central commission delayed the announcement of the official results, in order to delay his inauguration beyond May 27, he said. “Why? So that President Zelenskiy does not even have the opportunity to think about the dissolution of the Verkhovna Rada (parliament),” he said.

An election commission spokesman declined immediate comment but on Tuesday the deputy head of the commission said the result would be declared on April 30, ahead of its official deadline.

Zelenskiy is expected to take power within weeks. His ability to work with parliament will be crucial to meeting the expectations of his voters and passing reforms to keep foreign aid flowing.
 

Grey Fox

*Russian Troll*
@scalieback ,
"Zelenskiy is expected to take power within weeks. His ability to work with parliament will be crucial to meeting the expectations of his voters and passing reforms to keep foreign aid flowing."

not his, but Goloborodko's ability.
"Kill them all", - that is the best 'work' with parliament by common Ukrainian opinion.
But Zelenskiy is not Goloborodko. In film - Goloborodko speak Russian (as civilisated man). In facebook - Zelenskiy changed his name from civilisated 'Vladimir' to ukro-stilish 'Volodimir'.
There will be no peaceful solution of Ukrainian crisis.
 
YarS said:
There will be no peaceful solution of Ukrainian crisis.
Not while Dobby the House Elf wants his Soviet Union back, no.
 
YarS said:
Nobody wants Soviet Union back.
If you call something a tragedy, does that not mean you still wish it existed?
YarS said:
But gathering of Russian lands was one of main goals of Communists, Tsars, Great Princes, Cagans and so one...
Same face, different hat
YarS said:
It is just self-defence.
More like lebensraum
 

Grey Fox

*Russian Troll*
If you call something a tragedy, does that not mean you still wish it existed?
If you call death of your relative as a 'tradegy', does it mean that you want to zombificate his body? There were very seriose reasons for dismissing of Soviet Union.
Same face, different hat
Sure. It is not a question of personal wishes, it is the geopolitical trend. Socialists, Monarchists, Anarchists - all of them are fighting for unity of Russian world.
More like lebensraum
And this too. But right now more actual is uniting of existing parts of Russia, than creating new ones by colonisation of barbaric lands (like Britain).
 
YarS said:
If you call death of your relative as a 'tradegy', does it mean that you want to zombificate his body? There were very seriose reasons for dismissing of Soviet Union.
The ‘tragedy’ means many things which includes wishing it never happened.
YarS said:
Sure. It is not a question of personal wishes, it is the geopolitical trend. Socialists, Monarchists, Anarchists - all of them are fighting for unity of Russian world.
Whether the people in those countries want Russia in charge of them or not
YarS said:
And this too. But right now more actual is uniting of existing parts of Russia, than creating new ones by colonisation of barbaric lands (like Britain).
Admission is a wonderful thing.
 

Grey Fox

*Russian Troll*
The ‘tragedy’ means many things which includes wishing it never happened.
Funny conception. But will you try to zobificate your already dead relative?

Whether the people in those countries want Russia in charge of them or not
Sure. As EU and NATO made their Drang nach Osten whether the people in those countries want them or not.
Talking about Ukraine, according this elections, 72% of Ukrainians want Putin, not Poroshenko. And opinion of Banderlogs (and other Unrussians) mean nothing.
Admission is a wonderful thing.
And hypocrisy is a bad thing.
 
YarS said:
Funny conception. But will you try to zobificate your already dead relative?
He called it a tragedy. Most would think that means it was a terrible loss and shouldn’t have happened
YarS said:
Sure. As EU and NATO made their Drang nach Osten whether the people in those countries want them or not.
Apart from their elected governments and not wanting to be under the Russian yolk any more
YarS said:
Talking about Ukraine, according this elections, 72% of Ukrainians want Putin, not Poroshenko. And opinion of Banderlogs (and other Unrussians) mean nothing.
Maybe he’ll live up to his promise and a referendum on both
YarS said:
And hypocrisy is a bad thing.
Says the lying rapist who is scared to admit his previous username
 
So, how political chess party in Ukraine is going?
One could suggest that that 'game is over' for the elites that were at power in Ukraine. But it is not that simple.
To please Reuters funded collective with common name @scalieback I quote Reuters.
Ukraine's president-elect says being blocked from calling snap poll
Ukraine's president-elect Volodymyr Zelenskiy, keen to build parliamentary support, said on Thursday the election commission was preventing him from calling a snap parliamentary election by delaying the announcement of his election victory.
Yes, mr.Zelensky is a clear winner but still the election comission 'continues' to count votes and highly likely will make official statement only in May. But why? Mr.Zelensky
...has only a limited time in which to call a snap election: He can do so only after the election commission has officially declared his election win, but no later than six months before the next scheduled parliamentary election, which is due in late October.
According to the law mr.Zelensky is unable to call snap parliamentary elections because officially he is not elected. But in May it will be less than 6 month before the next scheduled elections and snap elections will be impossible again according to the law.
Just now mr.Zelensky is very popular and has potential good chances to see a lot of his supporters elected in the Rada (the parliament). But who knows how the political situation will look in October? Mr.Zelensky is unexperienced politician and could make a lot of mistakes. There is only one step from unbounded love to unrestricted hate.

Btw, pres.Putin has not congratulated mr.Zelensky as he was not 'officially' elected.
For mr.Putin victory of mr.Zelensky is extremely unpleasant. First of all, Russian ruling elites fear that Russian version of Zelensky could emerge during the next presidential elections in Russia. He (she) could be a very popular person from show business.
Also Ukrainian elections showed that in fact everything is possible, that will of the people matters, that even in such a corrupted country as Ukraine free and fair elections are possible.
Ukraine Election: Volodymyr Zelensky, TV Comedian, Trounces President
The prospect of a smooth transfer of power after a boisterous but mostly orderly election campaign shows how far Ukraine has moved away from Russia, where listless elections offer no real competition and, for nearly 20 years, have kept President Vladimir V. Putin in power.
If free and fair elections are possible in Ukraine then why they are not possible in Russia? Yes, transparent elections without falsehoods are possible in Russia as well. I believe and hope that it will happen later or sooner.

For the reasons that I have outlined pres.Putin likely will not cooperate with mr.Zelensky and will continue economical and political pressure on Ukraine. The recent decision about simplified procedure to gain Russian citizenship for those who live in Donbass unrecognised republics is one of such steps. Remarkably the simplified procedure doesn't require to abandon Ukrainian citizenship. So potentially millions of dual nationals in Donbass could participate in Ukrainian elections.
 
Funny conception. But will you try to zobificate your already dead relative?


Sure. As EU and NATO made their Drang nach Osten whether the people in those countries want them or not.
Talking about Ukraine, according this elections, 72% of Ukrainians want Putin, not Poroshenko. And opinion of Banderlogs (and other Unrussians) mean nothing.

And hypocrisy is a bad thing.
I see you’re twisting facts again in your attempts at lying.
 
So, how political chess party in Ukraine is going?
One could suggest that that 'game is over' for the elites that were at power in Ukraine. But it is not that simple.
To please Reuters funded collective with common name @scalieback I quote Reuters.
Ukraine's president-elect says being blocked from calling snap poll

Yes, mr.Zelensky is a clear winner but still the election comission 'continues' to count votes and highly likely will make official statement only in May. But why? Mr.Zelensky

According to the law mr.Zelensky is unable to call snap parliamentary elections because officially he is not elected. But in May it will be less than 6 month before the next scheduled elections and snap elections will be impossible again according to the law.
Just now mr.Zelensky is very popular and has potential good chances to see a lot of his supporters elected in the Rada (the parliament). But who knows how the political situation will look in October? Mr.Zelensky is unexperienced politician and could make a lot of mistakes. There is only one step from unbounded love to unrestricted hate.

Btw, pres.Putin has not congratulated mr.Zelensky as he was not 'officially' elected.
For mr.Putin victory of mr.Zelensky is extremely unpleasant. First of all, Russian ruling elites fear that Russian version of Zelensky could emerge during the next presidential elections in Russia. He (she) could be a very popular person from show business.
Also Ukrainian elections showed that in fact everything is possible, that will of the people matters, that even in such a corrupted country as Ukraine free and fair elections are possible.
Ukraine Election: Volodymyr Zelensky, TV Comedian, Trounces President

If free and fair elections are possible in Ukraine then why they are not possible in Russia? Yes, transparent elections without falsehoods are possible in Russia as well. I believe and hope that it will happen later or sooner.

For the reasons that I have outlined pres.Putin likely will not cooperate with mr.Zelensky and will continue economical and political pressure on Ukraine. The recent decision about simplified procedure to gain Russian citizenship for those who live in Donbass unrecognised republics is one of such steps. Remarkably the simplified procedure doesn't require to abandon Ukrainian citizenship. So potentially millions of dual nationals in Donbass could participate in Ukrainian elections.
You’re learning.

If you read the thread you’d see I’d already quoted the article: https://www.arrse.co.uk/community/threads/how-will-the-ukraine-war-end.228912/page-129#post-9233742

I note you deliberately missed the bit where the electoral commission saying about announcing earlier. Same on the citizenship by Putin. Already posted by me:
https://www.arrse.co.uk/community/threads/how-will-the-ukraine-war-end.228912/page-129#post-9233539

As before, I admire your optimism that Russia will have ‘free and fair elections’. Unlikely whilst the current ‘crooks and thieves’ are in power.
 

Grey Fox

*Russian Troll*
He called it a tragedy. Most would think that means it was a terrible loss and shouldn’t have happened
So, when Jean de La Bruyère say about 'tradegy of human existance' does it mean, that he want humanity never existed?

Soviet Union shoud have be changed. Sure, 'our version' of changing was 'tragic', may even more tragic than the Revolution and the civil war, that caused changing of Russian Empire into Soviet Union.
May be, there were possibilities to change it in less tragic ways, sure the more tragic possible ways were avoided.
Apart from their elected governments and not wanting to be under the Russian yolk any more
People dont want be nor under Russian yolk, neither under Septic heel. They want be rich and prosperous. Are they satisfied with their current life? Just look, how popular are 'eurosceptic' parties.
Maybe he’ll live up to his promise and a referendum on both
The Septics will not allow him to do it.
 
(...) For the reasons that I have outlined pres.Putin likely will not cooperate with mr.Zelensky and will continue economical and political pressure on Ukraine. The recent decision about simplified procedure to gain Russian citizenship for those who live in Donbass unrecognised republics is one of such steps. Remarkably the simplified procedure doesn't require to abandon Ukrainian citizenship. So potentially millions of dual nationals in Donbass could participate in Ukrainian elections.
It also occurred to me that granting Russian citizenship to those associated with rebellion in Donbass would also allow Moscow to reassure them that Russia won't abandon them or their families personally, even if the Kremlin decide that Zelensky is a man they can deal with and agree to drop support for the rebellion in return for other concessions.

Or in other words, this is capable of having several meanings and we shouldn't rush to interpret it according to the one that fits our own preconceptions.
 
YarS said:
So, when Jean de La Bruyère say about 'tradegy of human existance' does it mean, that he want humanity never existed?
Chalk and cheese. Nothing from Putin says he’s happy with the current borders
YarS said:
Soviet Union shoud have be changed. Sure, 'our version' of changing was 'tragic', may even more tragic than the Revolution and the civil war, that caused changing of Russian Empire into Soviet Union.
It’s what you do
YarS said:
May be, there were possibilities to change it in less tragic ways, sure the more tragic possible ways were avoided.
Like the other colour revolutions?
YarS said:
People dont want be nor under Russian yolk, neither under Septic heel. They want be rich and prosperous. Are they satisfied with their current life? Just look, how popular are 'eurosceptic' parties.
I don’t see many clamouring for the return of the Warsaw Pact
YarS said:
The Septics will not allow him to do it.
Stop being an idiot.
 
It also occurred to me that granting Russian citizenship to those associated with rebellion in Donbass would also allow Moscow to reassure them that Russia won't abandon them or their families personally, even if the Kremlin decide that Zelensky is a man they can deal with and agree to drop support for the rebellion in return for other concessions.

Or in other words, this is capable of having several meanings and we shouldn't rush to interpret it according to the one that fits our own preconceptions.
I'm absolutely sure that Putin will not drop support for the rebels in the name of good relations with mr.Zelensky.
The Kremlin's strategy is absolutely clear. Ukraine would be prosperous, would receive economical carrots from Moscow only with pro-Moscow leader. The Ukrainians now understand that with Poroshenko (or with the same type of leader) their future is gloomy. However there is a naive hope for miracle, hope to elect true 'servant of the people'. I believe that Putin will do everything possible and impossible to demonstrate that even marvelous president will be unable to resolve tough economic problems, that without economic cooperation with Russia the future would be as gloomy as previously.

Meanwhile
Зеленский улетел на фестиваль в Турцию - 24 Канал
Zelensky abandoned Ukraine and will spend weekend in Bodrum (Turkey) to attend an event that is a part of his show business project.
 

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