How will the Ukraine war end?

How will the Ukraine war end?

  • Rebels win,Eastern Ukraine goes independent

    Votes: 102 47.9%
  • Putin invades Kiev, NATO doesn't move

    Votes: 63 29.6%
  • Putin invades Kiev, NATO fights Russia

    Votes: 13 6.1%
  • Rebels lose, Ukraine stays united

    Votes: 35 16.4%

  • Total voters
    213
He-he-he...
1) Do you really think, that Septics fight against Iran's deal and Nord Steam-2 just to allow Europeans to buy Ukropipe?
What Washington really could do? Impose sanctions against the consortium that runs Ukrainian gas pipe system? On what ground?
2) Ukropipe demand significant investitions just to continue its work. I'm not sure, that the Germans are ready to pay big money for the pipe just to allow blast it to US-sponsored Ukro-terrorist?
The Ukrainian gas pipe system is potential source of good profits and members of the consorium could invest in it to have more profits. There are huge scale protests in Germany against coal fueled power plants. And there are plans to close them in 2020's. Still 40% of electric power in Germany is produced on coal power plants. Existing nuclear plants will be closed later or sooner and there are no plans to build new ones (thanks to ecologists). The only realistic way to solve German electro-energetics problems is to buy more and more gas. Where from? From Russia of course. In this context both Northern stream and Ukrainian pipe system will work 'full steam'. And it will be mutually profitable for Russia, for Ukraine, for Germany and Europe.
3) Gazprom will not make a deal before Naftogas debts will be payed. EU is no more a monopolian buyers, and shortage of suggestion on the gas market will raise world prices, and losses will be compensated.
Gazprom has decades long business relations with Germany and with other European countries and there were no any problems. If prices, terms of delivery are agreed then all sides follow the agreement. Naftogas is an exception. The Ukraine permanently complains that agreed price for gas is too high, the Gazprom doesn't pump sufficient volumes of gas. Ukraine previously used to speal gas, to resell it (despite the ban to do it). Ukraine didn't buy agreed volumes of gas and didn't paid for it. Though you know it pretty well.
So as for the new agrement with Naftogas then position of Moscow is clear - never again. But as for the agreement with the consortium then - why not? They would be reliable, mutually profitable relations.
 
Last edited:

Grey Fox

*Russian Troll*
What Washington really could do? Impose sanctions against the consortium that runs Ukrainian gas pipe system? On what ground?
When Septics needed ground? Newer.
They can show tube with white powder, and said, that it is evidence of Ukrainian WMD-program, they can start a new season of 'Russian poisoners', they can recognise Smeshko as the only legitime President of Ukraine, they can blast two more skyscrapers in NY or shoot down another Boing.
 

Grey Fox

*Russian Troll*
Talking about 'fair' elections. 'Burisma' (with Hunter Biden, son of Joe Biden in high management) just bought Dubrovsko-Radchenkovskoye oil field only for 25,1 millions of grivnas.
 
Exit polls predict that Volodymyr Zelenskiy will win the election in Ukraine, beating Poroshenko by 73.2% to 25.3%. Poroshenko has conceded defeat.
www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-presidential-election-second-round-1.5105896?cmp=rss
Results from the exit poll after voting stations closed showed Volodymyr Zelenskiy receiving an extraordinary 73.2 per cent — or nearly three out of every four votes cast — to President Petro Poroshenko's 25.3 per cent. (...)

While official returns had yet to be released, Poroshenko accepted defeat, saying: "I am leaving office, but I want to firmly underline that I am not leaving politics."
The news report describes this as being a "crushing rebuke" to Poroshenko and the poverty and corruption which plagued his rule, as well as his handling of the continuing war in the east.
If borne out by election returns, the overwhelming victory by Zelenskiy would stand as a crushing rebuke to Poroshenko's five years in office and a verdict on the country's deep-seated corruption, sickly economy and grinding war against Russian-backed separatists in the country's east that has killed over 13,000 people.
Zelenskiy said that Ukraine would maintain a western orientation, but that it would only join NATO if approved in a referendum and that his top priority would be talks with Russia to end the war.
Like Poroshenko, Zelenskiy pledged to keep Ukraine on its pro-Western course, but said the country should only join NATO if voters give their approval in a referendum. He said his top priority would be direct talks with Russia to end the fighting.
 
Comedian Zelenskiy wins Ukrainian presidential race by landslide: exit polls - Reuters
Zelenskiy’s first words appear positive for the future. Time will tell if he can deliver:
“I’m not yet officially the president, but as a citizen of Ukraine, I can say to all countries in the post-Soviet Union look at us. Anything is possible!”
The investment sorely required in the country is awaiting who he appoints and of course which direction he chooses, economically and politically:
“Since there is complete uncertainty about the economic policy of the person who will become president, we simply don’t know what is going to happen and that worries the financial community,” said Serhiy Fursa, an investment banker at Dragon Capital in Kiev.

“We need to see what the first decisions are, the first appointments. We probably won’t understand how big these risks are earlier than June. Perhaps nothing will change.”
Restarting Minsk 2 seems to be an objective. That and the release of the Russian sailors:
Zelenskiy said on Sunday he planned to continue European-backed talks with Russia on a so far largely unimplemented peace deal and would try to free Ukrainians imprisoned in Russia, which is holding 24 Ukrainian sailors among others.
Zelenskiy has rejected accusations that he will return Ukraine to the Russian orbit and that he has a close relationship with Kolomoisky who is the oligarch whose tv channel broadcasts the comedy shows. Kolomoisky is already mentioned in this thread:
“They believe that with a new inexperienced Ukrainian President, Ukraine could be quickly returned to Russia’s orbit of influence,” he wrote.
Critics accuse Zelenskiy of having an unhealthily close working relationship with a powerful oligarch called Ihor Kolomoisky, whose TV channel broadcasts his comedy shows.
Zelenskiy has rejected those accusations.
A test of his relationship will be how he deals with PrivatBank. Seized by the Uke govt but a Court has stated this was illegal:
The government wrested PrivatBank from Kolomoisky as part of a banking system clean-up backed by the IMF, which supports Ukraine with a $3.9 billion loan program.
But its fate hangs in the balance after a Kiev court ruled days before the election that the change of PrivatBank’s ownership was illegal, delighting Kolomoisky but rocking the central bank which said it would appeal.
The gas prices, which he has been vague about, need addressing. However, he has mentioned replacing the General prosecutor and no at new General’s in the Army:
The IMF will be watching closely too to see if Zelenskiy will allow gas prices to rise to market levels, an IMF demand but a politically sensitive issue and one Zelenskiy has been vague about.

Zelenskiy gave few new policy details on Sunday, but said he wanted a new general prosecutor to replace incumbent Yuriy Lutsenko, and spoke of wanting new generals to work in the army.
 
A surprisingly reasonable piece of analysis, given that this is RT, although there is still some pretty direct digs at the West. The six month wait alluded to could be make or break.

'KRASNODAR, RUSSIA – Volodymyr Zelensky’s victory in Sunday’s Ukrainian Presidential election marks the moment when the Western populist wave comes to the post-Soviet space. It also serves as a complete rejection of the divisive, ethno-nationalist policies pursued by his opponent, Petro Poroshenko, over the past five years. Like US President Donald Trump and Italy’s Beppe Grillo, Zelensky has leveraged a major television profile for political gain, but he’s pulled it off on an inclusive platform in his campaigning, contrasting with the discordant rhetoric of his opponent.

'Now, Ukraine faces an unusual situation. It has replaced an ideologically fanatical President with a complete unknown quantity. One who lacks any parliamentary power-base and must wait six months for elections to the legislature, the Rada.

'Zelensky also chose a positive campaign platform, avoiding unrealistic promises. By contrast, Poroshenko stood on his ability to hold firm against Russia. But, in doing so, he often gave the impression he thought he was competing with Vladimir Putin instead of his actual opponent.

'As an aside, whatever one may think about Poroshenko, he has at least cleared the way for a peaceful transfer of power and, more importantly, a peaceful change of elites. And this is something Russia, and much of the ex-USSR, has yet to experience. That said, most people here viewed the Ukrainian election as circus and watched it like a form of reality TV. Not because they wished to emulate it. With this in mind, the conduct of the campaign probably did more harm than good to the prospects of Western-style democracy taking off in Russia.

'Zelensky may turn out to be ineffective. And, unless he can somehow orchestrate a radical overhaul of the Rada this autumn, he will be rendered politically weak. Nevertheless, his election victory confirms that Ukrainians are tired of being used as pawns by both external actors and their own elites.

'The West backed the wrong man in Poroshenko. And, before that, Russia made the same mistake with his predecessor Yanukovich. Zelensky would be wise to put Ukraine first, and realize the zero-sum game has gotten his country nowhere.'


Poroshenko out, Zelensky in: West backed the wrong man in Ukraine & now it’s payback time
 
A surprisingly reasonable piece of analysis, given that this is RT, although there is still some pretty direct digs at the West. The six month wait alluded to could be make or break.

'KRASNODAR, RUSSIA – Volodymyr Zelensky’s victory in Sunday’s Ukrainian Presidential election marks the moment when the Western populist wave comes to the post-Soviet space. It also serves as a complete rejection of the divisive, ethno-nationalist policies pursued by his opponent, Petro Poroshenko, over the past five years. Like US President Donald Trump and Italy’s Beppe Grillo, Zelensky has leveraged a major television profile for political gain, but he’s pulled it off on an inclusive platform in his campaigning, contrasting with the discordant rhetoric of his opponent.

'Now, Ukraine faces an unusual situation. It has replaced an ideologically fanatical President with a complete unknown quantity. One who lacks any parliamentary power-base and must wait six months for elections to the legislature, the Rada.

'Zelensky also chose a positive campaign platform, avoiding unrealistic promises. By contrast, Poroshenko stood on his ability to hold firm against Russia. But, in doing so, he often gave the impression he thought he was competing with Vladimir Putin instead of his actual opponent.

'As an aside, whatever one may think about Poroshenko, he has at least cleared the way for a peaceful transfer of power and, more importantly, a peaceful change of elites. And this is something Russia, and much of the ex-USSR, has yet to experience. That said, most people here viewed the Ukrainian election as circus and watched it like a form of reality TV. Not because they wished to emulate it. With this in mind, the conduct of the campaign probably did more harm than good to the prospects of Western-style democracy taking off in Russia.

'Zelensky may turn out to be ineffective. And, unless he can somehow orchestrate a radical overhaul of the Rada this autumn, he will be rendered politically weak. Nevertheless, his election victory confirms that Ukrainians are tired of being used as pawns by both external actors and their own elites.

'The West backed the wrong man in Poroshenko. And, before that, Russia made the same mistake with his predecessor Yanukovich. Zelensky would be wise to put Ukraine first, and realize the zero-sum game has gotten his country nowhere.'

Poroshenko out, Zelensky in: West backed the wrong man in Ukraine & now it’s payback time
It’s interesting seeing how the Kremlin’s narrative on Ukraine and Ukrainian society will change, is changing, since Zelensky is of Jewish parentage and is a Russian speaker.
 
RT said:
The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of RT.

Bryan MacDonald
 
So mr.Zelensky won as it was expected but his real power is not that big as one could imagine. Without support in the Parliament (the Rada) he will be just a nominal head of state.
So approaching parliamentary elections are seen as the most decisive in recent years (maybe in the whole modern history of Ukraine). All previous presidents were backed by own political parties that were a part of ruling coalition.
Newly created pro-Zelensky party - 'The Servant of the people' hardly will get the absolute majority. So mr.Zelensky will need a coalition, he will need allies. Whom he could ally with?
Let's look at the ratings of political parties.
Opinion polling for the 2019 Ukrainian parliamentary election - Wikipedia
1555915072873.png

25.9% Pro-Zelensky SP - The Servant of the People
15.7% Opposition Block For Life (mr.Boyko was its candidate) that apparently is Moscow-friendly.
13.9% Pro-Poroshenko party (he is outgoing president).
12.1% Timoshenko's party - The Fatherland. Ms.Timoshenko is a former PM and 3 times tried to be elected as a president.
5.1% - Gritsenko's party. He is a former MoD.
5.0% - Smeshko's party He is a former head of SBU (secret service)
4.8% - Nationalist Radical party led by mr.Lyashko
3.4% - Opposition block with mr.Vilkul as a leader.
1.4% - Self Help - small moderate nationalist party with main base in Western Ukraine.
So we have
25.9% - Pro-Zelensky party
19.1% - Two main opposition parties.
30.2% - Poroshenko's party and its potential allies.
12.1% - Timoshenko's party
We see very unstable and unclear political landscape.
Mr.Zelensky will not form a coalition with Poroshenko's party. Politically it is unacceptable.
The coalition with Timoshenko that is quite possible would require additional members or passive support from opposition. It should be noted that sly oligarch Kolomoysky supported mr.Zelensky and ... his formal rival ms.Timoshenko who has chances to be PM again. If mr.Boyko would be vice PM then mr.Zelensky would have firm support in the Rada and ...

...and will face a lot of problems - first of all in economic sphere.
From the next year Russia plans not to use Ukraine for transit of its gas and it will eliminate one of a few sources of hard currency. And still Ukraine imports oil, coal namely from Russia - form so called 'aggressor state'. Oil products from Belarus are also made from Russian oil.
To please @scalieback I quote Reuters.
Russia limits some coal, oil exports to Ukraine - Reuters
April 18 (Reuters) - Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has signed a decree limiting Russian exports of some coal, crude oil and oil products to Ukraine, he told government officials in televised comments on Thursday.
It is not complete ban. But from 1 June any such export operation will require special approval.

Mr.Zelensky and his team face tough negotiations with Moscow. Though, appointment of mr.Boyko on key position in the government would soften Krenlin's demands and Moscow could even propose sweet economic carrots in exchange for political concessions.

So let's wait and see.
 
So mr.Zelensky won as it was expected but his real power is not that big as one could imagine. Without support in the Parliament (the Rada) he will be just a nominal head of state.
So approaching parliamentary elections are seen as the most decisive in recent years (maybe in the whole modern history of Ukraine). All previous presidents were backed by own political parties that were a part of ruling coalition.
Newly created pro-Zelensky party - 'The Servant of the people' hardly will get the absolute majority. So mr.Zelensky will need a coalition, he will need allies. Whom he could ally with?
Let's look at the ratings of political parties.
Opinion polling for the 2019 Ukrainian parliamentary election - Wikipedia
View attachment 388994
25.9% Pro-Zelensky SP - The Servant of the People
15.7% Opposition Block For Life (mr.Boyko was its candidate) that apparently is Moscow-friendly.
13.9% Pro-Poroshenko party (he is outgoing president).
12.1% Timoshenko's party - The Fatherland. Ms.Timoshenko is a former PM and 3 times tried to be elected as a president.
5.1% - Gritsenko's party. He is a former MoD.
5.0% - Smeshko's party He is a former head of SBU (secret service)
4.8% - Nationalist Radical party led by mr.Lyashko
3.4% - Opposition block with mr.Vilkul as a leader.
1.4% - Self Help - small moderate nationalist party with main base in Western Ukraine.
So we have
25.9% - Pro-Zelensky party
19.1% - Two main opposition parties.
30.2% - Poroshenko's party and its potential allies.
12.1% - Timoshenko's party
We see very unstable and unclear political landscape.
Mr.Zelensky will not form a coalition with Poroshenko's party. Politically it is unacceptable.
The coalition with Timoshenko that is quite possible would require additional members or passive support from opposition. It should be noted that sly oligarch Kolomoysky supported mr.Zelensky and ... his formal rival ms.Timoshenko who has chances to be PM again. If mr.Boyko would be vice PM then mr.Zelensky would have firm support in the Rada and ...
As above, the first six months will be telling and give a much better idea on how his party will fare in the election.
...and will face a lot of problems - first of all in economic sphere.
From the next year Russia plans not to use Ukraine for transit of its gas and it will eliminate one of a few sources of hard currency. And still Ukraine imports oil, coal namely from Russia - form so called 'aggressor state'. Oil products from Belarus are also made from Russian oil.
Nothing ‘so called’ about it.
To please @scalieback I quote Reuters.
Russia limits some coal, oil exports to Ukraine - Reuters

It is not complete ban. But from 1 June any such export operation will require special approval.
You’re learning
Mr.Zelensky and his team face tough negotiations with Moscow. Though, appointment of mr.Boyko on key position in the government would soften Krenlin's demands and Moscow could even propose sweet economic carrots in exchange for political concessions.
You mean ‘independence’ of the eastern states and ‘recognition’ of Crimea. Nothing that won’t stop further Russian incursions down the line.
So let's wait and see.
Indeed. Maybe Russia could offer something first? A ‘new beginning’ as it were?
 
It’s interesting seeing how the Kremlin’s narrative on Ukraine and Ukrainian society will change, is changing, since Zelensky is of Jewish parentage and is a Russian speaker.
Missus reckons she's seen a tweet that says he's been funded by shady* money from...

...dundadadundundundundurrrrrrrr...

The Kremlin.

If true, "How very unexpected, the Russia would interfere in another countries election process".





*Is there any other kind of money from that corrupt source, I ask rhetorically...
 
Missus reckons she's seen a tweet that says he's been funded by shady* money from...

...dundadadundundundundurrrrrrrr...

The Kremlin.

If true, "How very unexpected, the Russia would interfere in another countries election process".





*Is there any other kind of money from that corrupt source, I ask rhetorically...
There’s always the possibility that the Kremlin tried to Interfere. They seem to let go of their near abroad.
 
Ukraine President-Elect Zelenskiy’s Positions on Russia, Explained
Moscow Times on Zelenskiy, his statements both on Russia and Ukrainian sovereignty and a piece about the alleged funding along with him making a film in Russia during 2014. Worth reading the entire article to get the full flavour rather than picking up certain points imo.

Time will tell re Zelenskiy, but I don’t think he’s a Russian puppet just yet or even a pro EU/NATO (aka ‘Washington puppet’) individual from what I’ve read. He has his work cut out and it would certainly be easier if their eastern neighbour let him do it.
 
@KGB_resident, sure, nothing of this circus really matters. So, I suggest two games. First - if Zelenskiy will be elected and became a president- I give you a bottle of Cognak. If no - you give me a bottle of cheapest vodka.
Looks like you are down one bottle of Cognac (French, mind, no Bulgarian knock-off).

Just leave it at the usual dead letter drop off point, using the hollow stone in Lubyanka Square. KGB Resident will send a mule to pick it up at some point later on.
 
Looks like you are down one bottle of Cognac (French, mind, no Bulgarian knock-off).

Just leave it at the usual dead letter drop off point, using the hollow stone in Lubyanka Square. KGB Resident will send a mule to pick it up at some point later on.
He's going to wriggle on that one on a technicality. Zelensky needs to be inaugurated still, so not president just yet.
 

Similar threads


New Posts

Latest Threads

Top