How will the Ukraine war end?

How will the Ukraine war end?

  • Rebels win,Eastern Ukraine goes independent

    Votes: 101 47.9%
  • Putin invades Kiev, NATO doesn't move

    Votes: 63 29.9%
  • Putin invades Kiev, NATO fights Russia

    Votes: 12 5.7%
  • Rebels lose, Ukraine stays united

    Votes: 35 16.6%

  • Total voters
    211
Ok. £50k is $63500. Divide to 2 adults (there are near two adults in the median household, isn't it?) - $31750. Plus furniture, cars, electronic, jewelry - forty, may be fifty kilobucks, but not ninety.
I’m not disputing the figures. You are. You used the figures to support your argument. You got upset about the 10% owning 82% and then went on to query the figures. But only after the 82% by 10% was mentioned.

Take your findings to Credit Suisse and tell them they’re wrong. Not only about Russia which you are disputing but also the UK. I’m sure they’ll listen to your review :rolleyes:
Describe me property for ninety kilobucks per adult - 180 kilobucks for two adults household, and let's see is it median Brit, or medium-high (from upper 30%).
You’re the one disputing the figures. You’ve been given the links.
 
Ukrainian showman Volodymyr Zelensky claims to run for presidency
Ukrainian showman Volodymyr Zelensky stated on his decision to run for the office of president of Ukraine. He declared this during ‘Evening Quarter’ festive program on the 1+1 TV channel.

Volodymyr’s video announcement was broadcasted on the 1+1 channel, a few minutes prior to midnight, when the other TV channels were showing the speech of the President Petro Poroshenko. This is why Poroshenko’s New Year address on 1+1 was shown later.
Mr.Zelensky is very popular in Ukraine and he played role of president in one of his film. Ordinary Ukrainian, a teacher becomes a president in the film.
During numerous opinion polls mr.Zelensky was on top positions while he is not politician and never said that he plans to run for presidency.
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Ukrainian showman Volodymyr Zelensky claims to run for presidency

Mr.Zelensky is very popular in Ukraine and he played role of president in one of his film. Ordinary Ukrainian, a teacher becomes a president in the film.
During numerous opinion polls mr.Zelensky was on top positions while he is not politician and never said that he plans to run for presidency.
View attachment 369302
It’s a tv series:
Servant of the People | Netflix

Interesting. The premise of the series appears to be anti corruption. I think other countries could run similar tv programmes:

Ukraine’s “Servant of the People” Is a Hidden Gem of Political Comedy
Servant of the People (Слуга народа in Russian, Слуга народу in Ukrainian) chronicles the (fictional) story of Vasily Petrovich Goloborodko, a high school history teacher who suddenly becomes President of Ukraine after a video of him ranting about corruption goes viral. A total political novice, Goloborodko recruits a motley group of friends as his ministers. Together, he and his merry band of reformers use amusingly creative methods to battle Ukraine’s entrenched corrupt interests, who respond with their own flavors of dark hilarity.
 
Ukrainian president Poroshenko has confirmed that he intends to run for office again next year.
Petro Poroshenko confirms re-election bid, desire for Ukraine to join EU | CBC News
Ukraine's pro-Western President Petro Poroshenko launched his bid for a second five-year term in front of thousands of supporters on Tuesday, ahead of a tight election race in March.
Poroshenko is trailing behind former PM Yulia Tymoshenko in the popularity polls.
Polls show Poroshenko trailing the opponent he defeated five years ago, opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko, a veteran former prime minister who has pledged to clamp down on graft, raise wages and lower household energy prices
Poroshenko's rule has been widely perceived as a failure. Ukraine remains one of the most corrupt nations on earth, living standards have not risen, and he has failed to find a solution to the war in the Dombass region.
Poroshenko's popularity has dwindled over patchy efforts to tackle corruption and his failure to end the conflict in the eastern Donbass region that has killed more than 10,000 people.
He has also failed to raise living standards in one of Europe's poorest countries.
He had promised to win the war within weeks, which obviously did not happen. On the other hand, the ceasefire has largely held.
While he has not won the war in the east, as he had promised to do within weeks, he has not lost it either. The 2015 ceasefire has largely held despite regular deadly clashes.
However, he is expected to present himself as being more acceptable to foreign creditors such as the IMF, who are not likely to welcome Tymoshenko's plans for increased spending.
Poroshenko is likely to promote himself as a less radical choice than Tymoshenko, whose plans for more state spending could set her on a collision course with the International Monetary Fund and other foreign lenders who have pumped in billions to keep Ukraine's war-scarred economy afloat.
His campaign promises include joining the EU by 2024. I suspect there may be trepidation amongst the net contributors to the EU with regards to who is going to pay for this, as Ukraine is simultaneously one of the poorest as well as one of the largest countries in Europe.
Among his policy priorities, Poroshenko said Ukraine would apply to join the European Union by 2024, and a special court to try corruption cases would be up and running this year.
The presidential election is at the end of March, and parliamentary elections are in October.
The vote is to be held on March 31, with parliamentary elections in October.
 

Grey Fox

*Russian Troll*
Poroshenko is trailing behind former PM Yulia Tymoshenko in the popularity polls.
As Poroshenko's banner declare - "Me or Putin".Yulia Vladimirovna is offenly called as 'hand of Moscow'.(in fact, calling as 'hand of Moscow' is typical rhetoric in the modern West).

Poroshenko's rule has been widely perceived as a failure. Ukraine remains one of the most corrupt nations on earth,
And is becaming more and more corrupted.
living standards have not risen,
In fact, they were significally fallen.
and he has failed to find a solution to the war in the Dombass region.
Possible solutions were found, even more than one:
1) Equal rights for Russian-speakers, Russian language as the second official;
2) High autonomy for Donbass.
3) Federalisation of Ukraine..
If he dont like it - it is his own problem. Solution, that his masters want - genocide of Russians is unacceptable for Donbass.
 
Poroshenko says that he would like to see a UN peacekeeping force in Ukraine.
Petro Poroshenko presses UN for peacekeeping force in Ukraine | CBC News
Ukraine's president says a UN-mandated peacekeeping operation could be decisive in ending the conflict in the east with Russian-backed separatists — and says Secretary General Antonio Guterres should send a mission to come up with options.
However, he says he wants this UN peacekeeping force to "end the Russian aggression and restore Ukraine's sovereignty." I have a feeling that he doesn't understand what UN peacekeeping is, because that isn't what they generally do. They would normally monitor a ceasefire, not put together an army to take on Russia when the Ukrainian army themselves couldn't do it.
Petro Poroshenko, who is in the middle of an election campaign back home, told the General Assembly Wednesday that Ukraine is ready to discuss a multinational peacekeeping operation with "a clear objective to end the Russian aggression and restore Ukraine's sovereignty."
UN officials told the UN Security Council last week that the 2015 Minsk agreement remains largely unimplemented. Both sides blamed the other for this state of affairs.
Last week, UN officials told the Security Council that a 2015 agreement to bring peace to Ukraine's volatile east remains largely unimplemented, and civilians are paying the highest price. The Russian and Ukrainian ambassadors blamed each other for the failure to implement the agreement, signed in the Belarus capital, Minsk.
Poroshenko said that he asked for a UN peacekeeping operation in 2015, but that it was blocked by Russia.
He recalled that in March 2015 he asked the Security Council to deploy a UN peacekeeping operation in the east, but the initiative was blocked by Russia, a permanent veto-wielding council member.
Russia states that they proposed a UN mission in the Security Council, but it was blocked by Western countries.
He also told the assembly that Poroshenko "once again turned the situation of a possible peacekeeping operation in Donbas on its head" by forgetting to say such a mission was in a proposed Security Council resolution introduced by Russia, "which did not suit Ukraine and its Western sponsors."
Poroshenko wants the UN to take over control of the Donbas, including the border, remove all Russian forces from the area, and dissolve all "illegal bodies and structures". Just how the UN would be expected to do this wasn't mentioned.
Poroshenko said the mandate for any peacekeeping operation in the east must extend "over the entire occupied territory, including (the) border, and provide for withdrawal of Russian troops and their weaponry from our territory, as well as dissolution of all illegal bodies and structures."
The story notes that Poroshenko is running for re-election on the 31st of March, but is trailing in the opinion polls.
Poroshenko is seeking a new term in the March 31 presidential election, but is trailing in opinion polls.
I suspect that not much will happen on the UN front until after the election, at which time we might see what Poroshenko's successor will propose.
 

Grey Fox

*Russian Troll*
An interesting article in the Washington Post about artillery usage in the Ukrainian conflict.
"The Ukrainian experience serves as a deadly analogue for what might happen to U.S. artillery should we fight the Russians or a Russian surrogate. New Russian firepower systems now outrange ours by a third or more. [...]
The performance of Russian artillery in Ukraine strongly demonstrates that, over the past two decades, the Russians have gotten a technological jump on us. The United States’ strategic drones, the ones that plink terrorists from bases in Nevada, are more advanced than Russia’s. But Russian tactical drones, which spot for artillery, are far superior (and far more numerous) than ours. In 2014, when the Battle of Debaltseve began, the Ukrainians reported that as many as eight Russian tactical drones orbited over their heads at any one time.

Additionally, the electronic warfare technology demonstrated by the Russians in Ukraine is the best in the world, far better than ours."

https://www. washingtonpost.c om/opinions/global-opinions/russias-supe rior-new-weapons/2016/08/05/e86334ec-08c5-11e6-bdcb-0133da18418d_story.html

This stupid Yanks makes usual mistake - Russia didnt suplly local militia with the "new" weapon, equipment, drones. All of this is, in fact, old and obsolete.
 
An interesting article in the Washington Post about artillery usage in the Ukrainian conflict.
"The Ukrainian experience serves as a deadly analogue for what might happen to U.S. artillery should we fight the Russians or a Russian surrogate. New Russian firepower systems now outrange ours by a third or more. [...]
The performance of Russian artillery in Ukraine strongly demonstrates that, over the past two decades, the Russians have gotten a technological jump on us. The United States’ strategic drones, the ones that plink terrorists from bases in Nevada, are more advanced than Russia’s. But Russian tactical drones, which spot for artillery, are far superior (and far more numerous) than ours. In 2014, when the Battle of Debaltseve began, the Ukrainians reported that as many as eight Russian tactical drones orbited over their heads at any one time.

Additionally, the electronic warfare technology demonstrated by the Russians in Ukraine is the best in the world, far better than ours."

https://www. washingtonpost.c om/opinions/global-opinions/russias-supe rior-new-weapons/2016/08/05/e86334ec-08c5-11e6-bdcb-0133da18418d_story.html

This stupid Yanks makes usual mistake - Russia didnt suplly local militia with the "new" weapon, equipment, drones. All of this is, in fact, old and obsolete.
Their arty capabilities also far exceed NATO
 

Sadurian

LE
Book Reviewer
An interesting 'don't forget the conflict' piece on Reuters.

In shadow of war, Ukrainians seek to vote for peace

Unsurprisingly, the people on the front lines are less interested in who will take power in the forthcoming elections and more interested in an end to the fighting. This is a laudable and understandable aim, but one that will take more than a Ukraine election to sort out. Even if a candidate is found who promises to give over the eastern Ukraine to Russian control, the local warlords in the self-proclaimed 'independent' enclaves are unlikely to passively return to any outside government intervention, be that Kiev or Moscow.

It is striking how the people left on the front lines are the elderly, and therefore those most on need of the services currently being hampered by the fighting. Government representatives are trying their best to provide essentials, but they run a gauntlet of hostile territory to do so.
 
The following is a rather interesting article on what many people consider to be Ukraine's second most powerful man, Interior Minister Arsen Avakov.
Two Big Problems with Ukraine’s Elections that No One Else Has Spotted

There has been concern in some quarters that Avakov is prepared to deliver the election via fraud to whomever is prepared to reward him by keeping him in his position as head of the police and National Guard.

He is also the patron of far right militias, financed through National Guard connections. These are seen as being hard core activists who can be mobilised for street demonstrations and raised fears that Avakov was creating his own private army.
Ukraine's National Militia: 'We're not neo-Nazis, we just want to make our country better'

Accusations of corruption surround Avakov who has been accused of abusing his position to enrich himself and his associates.
Corruption accusations dog Avakov, Ukraine’s top cop | KyivPost
 
And for the comedy value, we have the "Clone Candidate" for president.
Yuriy V Tymoshenko, not to be confused with leading candidate Yulia V Tymoshenko, is also running for president.

However, the accusations are that this little known person with no obvious source of finance is in fact being secretly backed by Poroshenko to draw votes away from Yulia V Tymoshenko by creating confusion on the ballot.
 
Putin flies into Crimea for annexation party, launches power stations | Reuters
Putin opens up the power stations in Crimea, containing the German supplied (by mistake) generators. Lots of chanting 'Russia' and the 'bravery' of the Crimean's is apparently comparable with the Red Army at the start of WW2. I'm not sure that's a good analogy personally, seeing as they surrendered in their droves:
Putin on Monday fielded questions from local religious and community leaders and told a crowd at a pop concert that what he called their historical decision to become part of Russia in a 2014 referendum was comparable to the bravery of Red Army soldiers at the start of World War Two.

“Only the basic conditions of development have been laid down, but we will do everything to achieve the goals before us,” Putin told the crowd, some of whom could be seen wiping tears from their eyes.
 
Pompeo says no double standard in Trump's Golan Heights decision
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Saturday that President Trump's move on the Golan Heights does not amount to a double standard. He made the remarks when asked about the U.S. stance on the Syrian territory that Israel officially seized in 1981 compared to U.S. policy on Russia regarding its annexation of Crimea.
So what is the difference between Golan Heights and Crimea?
"You imposed sanctions on Russia for annexing Crimea," Hiba Nasr of Sky News said to Pompeo Saturday at the U.S. embassy in Beirut, Lebanon. "Now you are going to recognize the sovereign -- the Israeli sovereignty over these territories. Isn't this a double-standard policy?"
"No, not at all," Pompeo said.
But why?
"What the president did with the Golan Heights is recognize the reality on the ground and the security situation necessary for the protection of the Israeli state. It's that - it's that simple."
I see. Russia's control over Crimea is also the reality on the ground but of course it is not essential to protect the Israeli state.
 
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There was no referendum at Golan Heights.
Also there were no Jewish population here - at least during the last centuries. The whole Jewish population are settlers.
 
Comedian Volodymyr Zelensky is reportedly leading in the polls in the Ukraine election, scheduled for the 31st of March. Tymoshenko (the female one) is second, and Poroshenko is third.
Ukraine's next president — a laughing matter? | DW | 23.03.2019
Zelensky has a 20 to 25 percent share of the vote, ahead of incumbent Petro Poroshenko and opposition candidate and former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, according to opinion polls. His entry into the runoff seems very likely.
Zelensky is believed to be backed by one of Ukraine's oligarchs, Ihor Kolomoyskyi, an opponent of Poroshenko. Kolomoyskyi's struggles with Poroshenko over control of the oil and banking sectors in Ukraine have made them bitter enemies.
Critics do not see Zelensky as an independent political figure; they suspect an alliance between the comedian and Ihor Kolomoyskyi, a once-influential businessman from Dnipro, the former Dnipropetrovsk. The alleged alliance, they say, aims to prevent another mandate for Poroshenko. (...)

In fact, Poroshenko and Kolomoyskyi have faced off more than once in the past, mainly concerning differing points of view on the oil industry and the banking sector. Zelensky and the Ukrainian business oligarch have dismissed the notion of any kind of political cooperation in the presidential election.
The author of this news story suspects that despite leading in the polls, Zelensky will not win. Rather, he believes that Tymoshenko will win after a run-off election between the top two candidates.
Despite high poll numbers, Zelensky's victory in the presidential election seems unlikely: He is simply too polarizing. But he may well make re-election more difficult for Poroshenko, who is probably at least somewhat worried about the prospect of a runoff. The most likely beneficiary of such a scenario would be perpetual also-ran Tymoshenko, who is currently in second place in the polls and could better draw in disappointed Poroshenko supporters into a runoff than could Zelensky.
Moscow Times however has a slightly different set of polling numbers than DW (the DW story is older). In this one Zelensky is in first place with 24.8%, Poroshenko is second with 22.1%, and Tymoshenko is third with 14.8%.
Russia Enjoys the Show in Tight Ukrainian Election
Leading the pack is comic actor Volodomyr Zelensky with 24.8 percent of the decided voters, according to the latest polls. Incumbent Petro Poroshenko, a confectionary oligarch who has made his aggressive stance toward Russia a central part of his campaign, is lagging with 22.1 percent. Former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko is in third place with 14.8 percent.
Moscow Times believe that the Kremlin don't care who wins so long as it isn't Poroshenko as they see him remaining meaning that the current stalemate continues. While neither Tymoshenko nor Zelensky are friendly towards Moscow, they consider them as people they can at least talk to, even if the conversation is a bit frosty.
While Ukrainians have yet to make up their minds, the Kremlin knows which candidate it doesn’t want to win.

“If Poroshenko wins, this will mean that the state of confrontation will continue, which is not what Moscow wants,” said Konstantin Skorkin, a Moscow-based independent commentator specializing in Ukrainian politics. (...)

“With Tymoshenko, they know what to expect,” said Yekaterina Chimiris, an analyst with the Russian International Affairs Council, a research group set up by the Kremlin. “And with Zelensky, the Kremlin might see in him someone with the potential to work with.”
Despite Zelensky leading in the polls, that may not translate into support at the ballot box if his younger supporters don't turn out to vote.
The vote will go to a second round on April 21 if no candidate wins an absolute majority, and analysts think this is likely because the candidates are so tight at the top and Zelensky’s young support base might not come out to vote.
 
The Ukraine Interior Minister has said there have been numerous complaints made that Poroshenko and Tymoshenko were offering money in return for votes.
Ukraine presidential vote begins under bribe claim cloud | CBC News
Concern about the election's legitimacy spiked in recent days after the interior minister said his department was "showered" with hundreds of claims that supporters of Poroshenko and Tymoshenko offered money in exchange for votes.
This was widespread in the previous election in Ukraine. Voters would be offered money in return for voting for a specific candidate. There were various means by which the vote would verified (e.g. taking a picture of the marked ballot with a phone). The bribes were generally for fairly small amounts of money.

Tymoshenko is offering to cut natural gas prices by 50%. The high cost to the state of gas subsidies was one of the reasons for the dire financial condition of Ukraine in prior years, but it was popular with the voters.
The former prime minister, Tymoshenko, shaped her message around the economic distress of millions of Ukrainians, denouncing price hikes introduced by Poroshenko as "economic genocide" and promising to reduce prices for household gas by 50 per cent within a month of taking office.
Meanwhile Poroshenko has been struggling with a scandal involving his close associates who reportedly embezzled money from the military.
A military embezzlement scheme that allegedly involved top Poroshenko's associates and a factory controlled by the president dogged Poroshenko ahead of the election. Ultra-right activists shadowed him throughout the campaign, demanding the jailing of the president's associates accused of involvement in the scheme.
And this story also reports that Zelenskiy is seen as being backed by one of Ukraine's oligarchs, Kolomoyskyi, who is a rival to Poroshenko, which makes the election a battle of the oligarchs. Zelenskiy's popular television show "Servant of the People" is financed by Kolomoyskyi and a new season of the show started just before the election on the TV channel owned by Kolomoyskyi.
However, many political observers described the presidential election as a battle between Poroshenko and Kolomoyskyi, who was on Forbes Magazine's list of billionaires with a net worth of $1.3 billion US in 2014 before dropping off the following year.
Both the president and Kolomoyskyi relied on an arsenal of media outlets under their control to exchange blows. Just days before the election, the TV channel Kolomoyskyi owns aired a new season of the Servant of the People TV series in which Zelenskiy stars as Ukraine's leader.
"Kolomoyskyi has succeeded in creating a wide front against Poroshenko," said Vadim Karasyov, head of the Institute of Global Strategies, an independent Kyiv-based think-tank . "Ukraine has gone through two revolutions, but ended up with the same thing — the fight between the oligarchs for the power and resources."
 

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