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How will the Ukraine war end?

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by Skylog, Mar 6, 2015.

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  1. Rebels win,Eastern Ukraine goes independent

    83 vote(s)
    51.9%
  2. Putin invades Kiev, NATO doesn't move

    43 vote(s)
    26.9%
  3. Putin invades Kiev, NATO fights Russia

    8 vote(s)
    5.0%
  4. Rebels lose, Ukraine stays united

    26 vote(s)
    16.3%
  1. I have read in various places that the Kiev government are afraid of potential separatist sentiment in Transcarpathia.

    The region was tacked onto Ukraine after WWII, having previously been part of Czechoslovakia. Supposedly Moscow wanted the area to be part of the Soviet Union as the addition of that gave them a direct land border with Hungary, should they need to send troops there. However, the region had no historical or cultural connection with Ukraine. It was another example of the communist heirarchy's arbitrary redrawing of borders without regard to the people living there.

    This tends to make the authorities in Kiev very nervous about the people who live there. The recent changes in the language laws may act to alienate the people there, who tend to have more connection with Hungary (via the dual passports which you mention - which are illegal for Ukrainian citizens to have by the way) than with Ukraine.

    This could all result in Kiev creating a problem in the west of the country which didn't previously exist.
     
  2. According to Ukrainian statistics 80% of Transcarpathian population are Ukrainians and only 12% are Hungarians. So threat of Hungarian separatism is not big. Budapest will not demand border correction and Kiev would never agree with it.
    It should be noted that local Ukrainians are mostly Ukrainised (in Soviet times) Ruthenians. Also Hutsuls - native ethnical group are regarded from Soviet times as 'Ukrainian highlanders', part of Ukrainian people while their style of life, habits, language are quite different.
    Transcarpathia unlike other Western regions of Ukraine has strong pro-Russia sentiments. Locals demand bigger degree of authonomy.
    Stalin annexed Transcarpathian Ruthenia given after WW1 to Czechoslovakia and a small part of Hungary to have border along Tissa river and to have full control over railway line.
    Yes.
    Yes and no. Inside Austro-Hungarian empire Transcarpathian Ruthenians had close ties with other Ruthenians in Galicia and with Galician Ukrainians. So union with (Soviet) Ukraine was logical.
    From formal point of view dual citizenship is prohibited in Ukraine but
    de facto many have also Russian passports. Many Jews have Israeli passports and so on. For example oligarch, former Dnepropetrovsk governor Kolomoysky has also Israeli and Cypriot passports. Being asked about apparent violation of the law he said that Ukrainian law prohibits dual citizenship while he has triple citizenship.
    Transcarpathia doesn't and will not support current ruling circles anyway. Local Hungarians will not vote for mr.Poroshenko. So their sentiments are irrelevant for Kiev.
    I repeat, Hungarian schools themselves are not a big problem. Kiev could easily allow them but it means that Russian schools have to be allowed.
    How it could end?
    I suspect that the educational law will be corrected. Schools with foreign working languages will be allowed if ... it is EU language.

    Actum est, ilicet!
     
    • Informative Informative x 1
  3. I've seen reports of this trend over recent years in other articles, but another recent survey confirms the direction of travel is to an increased use of Ukrainian. A big factor in Russian being commonly used was its prevalence in the media but there is an increasing demand for this to now change.

    Volodymyr Kulyk: Ukrainians are ready to shed the legacy of Soviet Russification | KyivPost

    So the recent education law is in step with this trend it seems.
     
  4. Meanwhile those pesky separatists are probably getting bored sitting around with nothing to do except drink vodka, so their thrusting warrior leader types think they ought to be kept sharp by blatting away at the Ukrainian side:

    9 attacks, 1 solider wounded in Donbas over 24 hours
     
  5. Note, that Kiev authorities tell about attacks made by the separatists and at the same time don't say that governmental forces haven't attacked the separatists themselves.
    How many attacks? 9?
    At the same time Donetsk separatists report about 45 attack of governmental forces.
    Украинские силовики за сутки 45 раз нарушили режим прекращения огня
    And of course no one word about own attacks on governmental positions.
     
  6. But we all know the separatist leaders and their propaganda are full of lies, don't we.

    With headlines like this, death to the ukrop. Charming.

    "Смерть укропам, слава ДНР!": На Днепропетровщине облили краской памятник бойцам "АТО"
     
  7. Any propaganda are based on facts and lies though in different proportions. Kiev authorities have own agitprop machine.
    As for the article, slogans "Death to Ukrops!", "Glory DPR", then it is just information that this slogans appeared in the town of Chekasskoye, Dnepropetrovsk area. 7 October a monument to fallen ATO fighters was opened in the town.
    [​IMG]
    Foreing troops were present
    [​IMG]
    But there were no crowds of locals.
    Immedially, next day the memorial was vandalised by the locals.
     
  8. They're not foreign, they're British.

    But yes. I should have taken more time to read the article properly.

    We don't have propaganda, just economy of truth. It's others who propagandise.
     
  9. YarS

    YarS On ROPs

    Sure. Also there are a services to demonstrate fake locations of Russian soldiers. Désinformation is one of the basic principles of war, you know.
    "All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near. Hold out baits to entice the enemy. Feign disorder, and crush him."
    Sun Tzu "Art of war".
     
  10. that's a really weak excuse.
     
  11. YarS

    YarS On ROPs

    It's not "excuse". It's a basics.
     
  12. Oh I see, so part of the basics is to let Ukraine and others think there are Russian troops in east Ukraine.

    I see.

    So those pictures of Russian selfies in east Ukraine aren't real? They're put out by the Russian army to fool us?

    That's clever.
     
  13. YarS

    YarS On ROPs

    Sure. There are no real regular Russian forces, but till NATO think they are there - they will not try to attack Novorussia.

    What exactly pictures? For example, in AMF there was pretty discussion about some of such pictures.
    War in Ukraine

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  14. The fact that you call it New Russia is all the evidence we need that it isnt part of Russia but Old Somewhere Else my little gopnik.


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