How many Prisoners are ex-Forces?

Discussion in 'Charities and Welfare' started by OldSnowy, Jan 26, 2010.

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  1. OldSnowy

    OldSnowy LE Moderator Book Reviewer

    For info, DASA (The Defence Analytical chaps) have done a study into this, and the results are at:

    In summary:

    "The aim of this study was to estimate the proportion of prisoners in England and Wales who are ex-Armed Forces by matching administrative datasets held by the MOD and the MoJ. A database of all prisoners in England and Wales on 06/11/09 was matched against a database of Service leavers (Regulars only, going back as far as records are available) using name and date of birth.............

    ............Although this is the most comprehensive study to date, it is dependent on the quality and completeness of the administrative databases used. In particular, this study will not have captured those who left Service before 1979 (Navy), 1972 (Army) and 1968 (RAF), and so is a lower estimate. Further work is planned during 2010 to estimate the impact of excluding Service leavers prior to the aforementioned dates. We do not expect that a revised estimate would exceed 4%.

    There you have it. As a maximum, around 4% of those banged up are ex-Forces. I reckon this works out to be around 3,400 in a total prison populaiton of around 85,000. I've no idea of the significance of this figure - it just seems a lot to me, given how few ex-Forces there are about these days. I just thought that this work deserved a bit of a more public airing than just hiding on a Government website.
  2. A fair few by all accounts. 2 I joined with served substantial sentences for unrelated incidents after getting out and a few have sailed dangerously close.

    My brother finished a fair whack 2 years ago, he palled up with a fair amount of people who had served, like him, in one way or another but was quiet emphatic that a large number who claim to have served have either done so in an extremely limited and time short capacity or havent at all, apparently, and to a degree understandably it's common for people to insinuate a bit of service history to go some way to ward off any unwanted attention, all quantified by him being introduced to a fellow 'para' fresh through reception who fessed up to 6 weeks in the TA.

    As a further point, Prison Officers and the folk that run private nicks are riddled with pants on fire merchants who use the 'when I was in' line, he met a screw at Dovegate who had been the Billy Bigshot of a wing for a while and in the assumption that the officer was wearing an anodised wings badge on his tie, was hoping for a bit of dit spinning to bag a perk or 2, funnily enough the bloke didnt want to know and over the course of the next 6 months his badges disappeared, he stopped banging on incessantly about the Falklands War and avoided my brother like the plague ? 8O
  3. Using a rough 60million population, this looks like 0.14% is banged up
    1.3 million ex-regulars, from their figures = 3400/1300000= 0.26%

    So, on the face of it it would seem possible ex-regular is a factor

    BUT may be meaningless !

    Over the time period of the survey, the vast majority of "ex-regulars" would have been MALE, and the majority of locked up offenders are male, so purely being male is a greater chance of being locked up than a general population. calculation.

    Though, looking at the ethnic spread of locked up prisoners, the average proportion of ex regulars may be higher that my figure above, as ex regs through the survey period will have been predominantly whte Caucasian.

    The other useful factor would be the length of service, as I suspect many prisoners will be failures as criminals, who were also failures for the armed services, and got rid of at very early stages.

    Possible less now that in the past, but the services have always attracted high proportions of recruits from the "cared for children" sector, and those will be the people with most difficulty,on average, on leaving the support of the services, this could be a factor.... And there will be innumerable other factors we could look at.

    My own driver to looking at such statistics would need much more research, as I would be keen that we pick up and support especially those who have served in conflicts who may be in prison because of lack of medical assistance with mental health problems. .