How long until the next Euro domino falls over?

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by sunoficarus, Nov 22, 2010.

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  1. The markets are incensed because of Merkel's indication that private investors in Euro bonds should take a ''haircut'' if bonds have debts rescheduled.This is tantamount to telling the markets to Foxtrot Oscar.No wonder many investors in Euro bonds are incensed.However the German Bund should be safe,as a benchmark.Maybe there's method in Merkel's madness?

    Arrsers don't be conned by the Eurines saying it will be doom all round if the Eurine collapses.

    It will be 'doom' for the expenses and hyper-salary guzzlers - doom!

    PS: It will be a dose of democracy and freedom if the Eurine falls flat on it's Franco/German face. Bring it on!!!
  3. Will we have to bail out Portugal too?
  4. the_boy_syrup

    the_boy_syrup LE Book Reviewer

    Portugese Govt have denied they will need a bale out
    Just like the Irish and Greeks did then

    No doubt they will produce Maddie and claim the 40 Billion reward
  5. YES,

    Next question please.


    Of course - the European Supreme Soviet will ORDER us to do so.

    Others? How many formerly sovereign and independent states are there in the European Soviet Union? Discount France and Germany - the Franco/German axis - the Paris/Berlin club of two - and there is your answer.

    The European Soviet Union is an exercise in building a super federal state by stealth and lies - thanks Heath, you homosexual traitor!

    In a Soviet Super Federated State - dissent is not allowed. Free speech is not allowed. Religious choice is not allowed. Freedom of movement is not allowed. No 'freedom' is allowed excepting that of the State!

    Those that think this state in unthinkable - think again! Ireland is now a puppet of the faceless unelected twonks, Marxist twonks, in Brussels and the hyper-expensive Strasbourg.

    Ireland tried to break free by a referendum - think again Micks, they were told - have another referendum and vote properly this time!

    All those Irish Victoria Cross holders; all those generals and field marshals; the hundred of thousands of Irish soldiers of all ranks whose courage and commitment was unequalled; all those peerless rugby players, and now the country is led (?) by a gang of supine cowards who cannot face up to the shit in Brussels! Shame! Shame! Shame!

    Ireland now becomes the first piece in the jig-saw of a 'United' Federated Soviet State of Europe - and war will follow as certain as day follows night!
  6. It's not making it easier planning next years holidays. I try to keep away from Europe because it's not good value but it may change.

  7. Italy is as I recall, the one EU country that has actually given some serious thought to parachuting out of the Euro.
  8. Portugal is our oldest ally, of course we will.

    If Spain goes (and as night follows day, the markets will turn on Spain if Portugal survives this), then the whole system is fcuked, because they're too big to bail out. No euro collapse before June 2011, though.

    You read it here first.

  9. Has anyone got a handle on Spains probable exposure yet? It all seems a bit nebulous in Diegoland.
  10. I have no proof but just a gut feeling that Italy may be some form of Dark or even Trojan Horse concerning the future of the Euro and also the EU ... time will tell .
  11. Listening to a learned man on Radio 4 this morning he said that the Euro will not survive 10 years. Any attempt to leave the Euro when your on the way down would trigger a run on the banks to withdraw savings in Euros so that they could be transferred to foreign banks in Germany or Switzerland. He hinted that the only country that could survive a withdrawal would be Germany.

    If Italy is hinting that they may leave the Euro, it's probably Berlusconi posturing, the Italians are slowly coming to the realisation that they have a corrupt amoral tosser for a Prime Minister. He is desperate to become president but it looks like he has shot his bolt for that job.
  12. Spain relied a lot on the building industry which has now gone tits up in a big way. Properties selling for 200k now on the market for around 110k. Even cheaper flats at 130k 2 years ago now going for 50 to 60k. Banks have shed loads of property on their books as loads of people have simply handed the keys in and gone home. All along the Costas, half finished building sites abound with no work being done. Unemployment at around 20% with the 18-25 year olds running at 40%. The Spanish economy shrank by 3.6% last year. The rise in the euro against the pound has seen tourism from the UK plummet with some hotels savagely cutting prices last summer to try and get some of them back. Car production is falling (although still higher than than of UK). Euro grants to improve water supplies, roads and other items has virtually all been spent and it looks like there may not be any more coming in. On the plus side, they have used the grants to improve many things with a good motorway system and the A roads being upgraded. New hospitals have been built and run extremely well.
    On a personal note, my spending power has been greatly reduced due to the pounds dismal showing. My garden is looking lovely and the weather today is up in the 60s (21 to 23c). The endemic corruption in the judicial system is slowly being eroded but with each region still allowed to make its own rules, this is a very slow process. However, lawyers who were in cahoots with the builders are being weeded out and many of the corrupt mayors (who gave permission for buildings on protected land) are now serving quite long stretches at His Majesty's Pleasure. The rumours are that the Spanish are in talks regarding a bail out which could be as much as €250 billion, so we aren't talking pesetas here. Spanish debt wilts amid €250bn rescue plan confusion - Telegraph

    The Spanish economy is much larger than that of Greece, Ireland or Portugal and, if it goes to the wall, the repercussions could be enormous. I think even the Germans would baulk at a bail out of that size.
    If Spain weren't in the euro, it could allow its currency to devalue to make it better for tourists, selling goods from its substantial automotive and aeronautic industries and others. It isn't, so it can't.
    All my receipts from the shops and my bank statements still show the peseta equivalent alongside the euro one.
    The national debt to GDP is running at about 66% which is rather better than Greece's 120% but the high level of unemployment could push that up considerably.
    Not looking good at all.
  13. My bold ... I am not implying in my earlier post that Italy will try to leave the Euro in fact quite the converse but it may well be instrumental in its failure .
  14. Wordsmith

    Wordsmith LE Book Reviewer

    Portugal will probably need a bail out in the next few months - and that's within the capacity of the EU to do.

    But then Spain is next on the list - and if Spain goes down the pan, there will be problems. That particular bailout may be beyond the capacity for the EU for both political and financial reasons. Can't see the Germans, French or UK governments wanting to keep pouring money into the Club Med coffers. A Spanish default will cause big problems in the markets - I've seen it described as the sovereign debt equivalent of Lehman Brothers. In effect Spain going bust will cause another credit crunch.

    I wonder if one of two things will happen:

    (a) Europe has a plan B where Spain and some of the other Club Med countries are allowed to leave the Euro. I know the EU swears it won't happen, but if Germany and France are going to be dragged back into another recession, the might just change their mind.

    (b) China - which is sitting on a mountain of cash - decides that the European banking system going bust is not a good idea and refinances the IMF.