How has the worlds greatest investor (Warren Buffett) done?

#2
And down 17% in just the last two weeks. Pretty depressing really when there is little confidence even in this man's ability to navigate through the current troubles.
 
#4
Litotes said:
gobbyidiot said:
This is the Berkshire Hathaway chart for the last year

http://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=Berkshire+Hathaway

He's down 45%. Everthing (therefore) is pretty fecked - total indiscriminate sell-off.
I would like it to be an "indiscriminate sell-off" but I don't think we have yet seen that.

Thank you, however, for providing the BH chart; I hadn't seen that recently.

The Dow was up today...

Litotes
I know. I'm conning myself. We've not got to the blind panic stage, although on one view prices down where they were ten years ago (given inflation) is a 70% plus real money fall. This is the Great Millenium Crash, but living through it hides its magnitude.

But it could get a whole lot worse, although now that I have a horse in the race I hope it doesn't. Will I have the cojones to take out a couple of big SIPPs if there is a major crash to "buy cheap"? Would that really be "buying cheap", or just throwing good money after bad? Bloody hell.....
 
#5
gobbyidiot said:
Will I have the cojones to take out a couple of big SIPPs if there is a major crash to "buy cheap"? Would that really be "buying cheap", or just throwing good money after bad? Bloody hell.....
Cheap will be FTSE sub 2500. This from same advisors advocating short dated gilts before Xmas. I have money invested with them and am up circa 9% over the last 12 months. No money in stocks except precious metal miners. Bullion up considerably in sterling also money in a bear fund not available to retail investors.
 
#6
Silver_Bull said:
gobbyidiot said:
Cheap will be FTSE sub 2500. This from same advisors advocating short dated gilts before Xmas. I have money invested with them and am up circa 9% over the last 12 months. No money in stocks except precious metal miners. Bullion up considerably in sterling also money in a bear fund not available to retail investors.
I was gilts and cash until about 4 months ago, and I think you're right, downright cheap is 2,500 - p/e 4:1. Problem is we are historically cheap right now - if earnings return to 2008 levels in the next few years (and are predicted to) the market will bounce like a bouncy thing, and anyone wanting to buy income producing equities for the long term will have missed their chance. As at 0915 Thurs 26th up 100 on the FTSE.

But could be down 1,000 by lunchtime :D

Do I feel lucky?
 
#7
gobbyidiot said:
Problem is we are historically cheap right now - if earnings return to 2008 levels in the next few years (and are predicted to) the market will bounce like a bouncy thing, and anyone wanting to buy income producing equities for the long term will have missed their chance. As at 0915 Thurs 26th up 100 on the FTSE.

But could be down 1,000 by lunchtime :D

Do I feel lucky?
Earnings will fall off a cliff. Also don't forget all bear markets over shoot to the downside (as all bull markets overshoot to the upside). Turnover on my company is down 75% 8O
 
#8
[quote="Silver_Bull
Earnings will fall off a cliff. Also don't forget all bear markets over shoot to the downside (as all bull markets overshoot to the upside). Turnover on my company is down 75% 8O[/quote]

True, but if a share price is the present price of all the future earnings then knowing for a fact that British companies would make zero for the next two years shouldn't affect their prices too much - the amortised hit of two years lost earnings ain't much.

Mind you, the investing public don't think like that :)
 
#9
gobbyidiot said:
True, but if a share price is the present price of all the future earnings then knowing for a fact that British companies would make zero for the next two years shouldn't affect their prices too much - the amortised hit of two years lost earnings ain't much.

Mind you, the investing public don't think like that :)
Point taken. Also rallies will take place but overall I'm aiming for FTSE to be 2000 to 2500. Don't know though so for now - I'm out. Well let you know when I'm back in though.
 
#10
Silver_Bull said:
gobbyidiot said:
True, but if a share price is the present price of all the future earnings then knowing for a fact that British companies would make zero for the next two years shouldn't affect their prices too much - the amortised hit of two years lost earnings ain't much.

Mind you, the investing public don't think like that :)
Point taken. Also rallies will take place but overall I'm aiming for FTSE to be 2000 to 2500. Don't know though so for now - I'm out. Well let you know when I'm back in though.
If it got to that level what would you buy to get back in? Unit trusts only deal at noon, so you don't know the price you get, and I don't trust ETFs. I'm thinking a big liquid investment trust like Foreign and Colonial....
 
#11
gobbyidiot said:
If it got to that level what would you buy to get back in? Unit trusts only deal at noon, so you don't know the price you get, and I don't trust ETFs. I'm thinking a big liquid investment trust like Foreign and Colonial....
Not sure what format I'll invest in or what exact level. Leave it up to the gents that know. However, when the time comes and they pile back in I'll let you know and in what format. They are more into technical analysis than fundamentals. Part of the gold investment I hold (via asset managers) is Blackrock Gold and General. I sold my direct holdings in G&G last year >£11 and almost bought back in at a £5 but held back. Still hold bullion and could well be buying more silver at current prices. What are your favourite F&C trusts?
 
#12
Silver_Bull said:
gobbyidiot said:
If it got to that level what would you buy to get back in? Unit trusts only deal at noon, so you don't know the price you get, and I don't trust ETFs. I'm thinking a big liquid investment trust like Foreign and Colonial....
Not sure what format I'll invest in or what exact level. Leave it up to the gents that know. However, when the time comes and they pile back in I'll let you know and in what format. They are more into technical analysis than fundamentals. Part of the gold investment I hold (via asset managers) is Blackrock Gold and General. I sold my direct holdings in G&G last year >£11 and almost bought back in at a £5 but held back. Still hold bullion and could well be buying more silver at current prices. What are your favourite F&C trusts?
...well, I was just thinking, "what will collapse with everything else, and stands as a nearly perfect tracker of world markets, and I can buy at a given and known price without having to worry about what unenforceable obligations stand behind the exchange traded fund". On that basis the basic Foreign and Colonial (FRCL) seems an option.
 
#13
gobbyidiot said:
...well, I was just thinking, "what will collapse with everything else, and stands as a nearly perfect tracker of world markets, and I can buy at a given and known price without having to worry about what unenforceable obligations stand behind the exchange traded fund". On that basis the basic Foreign and Colonial (FRCL) seems an option.
I see - THE Foreign and Colonial Investment Trust 'scuse my ignorance - I'm a humble silverbug. Just noted on Black Monday October 19th 1987 the FTSE fell to 2052. This was also my first Monday in BAOR so maybe I'll use that level as my trigger to buy 8)
 

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