House Prices

#1
Good Evening

Any predictions for house prices this year - Will Gideon`s give a ways with Help to buy and the new scheme in Jan 2014 make any difference

I have looked at some new builds locally and at both the sales persons hinted that they were open to offers i.e a discount in the region of 5% which is unusual if they have had a good take up with Help To Buy

Archie
 

Grumblegrunt

LE
Book Reviewer
#2
if you look at a new build then give the walls a good kick as there's bugger all to them now rooms are too small and the garages aren't big enough for cars going by recent press articles. so take a tape measure to make sure they aren't messing with your head as show houses often use smaller furniture to make rooms look bigger. ceilings to my upstairs is 5 inches shorter than downstairs so I had to get wardrobes custom made to fit in.

predictions are up and down as they need to drop another 20% but osborne is dicking with the system with his guarantee scheme and might make them go up even further.

politicians are in the view that property bubbles make people feel better as they get further into debt.
 

DieHard

LE
Book Reviewer
#3
i read that the new gov scheme is pushing prices up, They will always go up, they may dip sometimes but always recover, my gaff has almost trebled to £200.000 since 1998.
The sad fact is the prices still put of 1st time buyers.
Because of the market and people needing money there is always room to negotiate.

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#4
Fundamentally it's a case of simple economics: in the medium to long term, as long as demand exceeds supply, prices will remain high and tend to rise. [with apologies to Keynes]
 
#5
Fundamentally it's a case of simple economics: in the medium to long term, as long as demand exceeds supply, prices will remain high and tend to rise. [with apologies to Keynes]
Completely agree. Property prices have doubled every 8-12 years for past 100 years. Main reasons supply and demand, plus keynsian inflation (property is a store of value and a commodity) and capitalist economics based around a fiat currency (money not linked to gold standard - ie notional/valueless). All of this puts any commodity in a good position. Also look to silver. It will go. great sites to read zerohedge.com and marketoracle.co.uk.

We are in a strange age at the moment and there is still a big risk of further banking issues (euro, dollar both on sticky wickets - yes I did say dollar - it was about to crash, they caught bin laden and then the euro went pear shaped - US banks heavily exposed to euro and don't china know it).

My predication stagnant this year until near the end when people get excited about new govt assistance in buying. Then could go up and up (risk of sub-bubble) or could correct very slightly as everyone realises govt initiative not as good as hoped (deja vu). In reality small increases next three years, then boom some time in year 4, then back into the cycle.

The good thing for property is that people will have learned from previous mistakes ;)
 

Grumblegrunt

LE
Book Reviewer
#7
the latest is that downsizing babyboomers freeing capital to go on cruises will be fighting with young first timers and buy to letters for limited 2 bed properties.

we will have to go back to buying run down houses to do up which is no bad thing but the kids have to learn to beg and borrow stuff rather than just splash on the credit card for the perfect instant pad.
 
D

Davetheclown

Guest
#8
******* baby boomers, trying to get my self sorted with a house, in the estate agents and there was a couple downsizing, and buying two properties one for them and the other they were going to rent, so I eavesdropped the agent said that first time buyers could rent at 400-500, the greedy ******* wanted 600 pcm, on a 2 bedroom flat.

That would price me out of the market.

I honestly would not mind renting of a professional landlord, but off a greedy couple. When they left I mentioned to the agent and he said that a lot of babyboomers were doing it. He offered me a studio flat in a rough area of town, completely refused.

Homes under the hammer has something to answer for, as wealthy couples making 12k a house purchase and overpricing the market.

Anyhoo found somewhere just need to speak to the estate agent tommorrow.
 
D

Davetheclown

Guest
#9
Oh and dont get me started on flats and bungalows at low prices quiet areas only to find they are over 55 only residential areas, bastards,
 
#10
I'm in the process of selling up my flat and the missus her house, Her house went on the market on Friday had 3 viewers yesterday and as described mix of baby boomer and first time buyer.

Tip to the OP have a look on the estate agents web-sites and see if there are any reposessions normally go under the market value and might only be a few years old as well
 
#11
US seems to be picking up slowly, house prices have risen for the last couple of quarters. Economically the rise should knock on to the UK improving bank confidence etc, etc, resulting in a gradual increased upturn increasing prices.

New houses put profit into a buiders pocket, a bit like a new car loses value as soon as you drive it off the forecourt. You will get more value for you money with a slightly older property.
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
#12
What happens to house prices depends on how sensible the government is. Historically house prices have been 3.7 - 3.8 times average earnings. There is a good reason for that - building societies traditionally lend 3.5 x a couple's combined salary. Add in the deposit and there's your 3.7 - 3.8 times average earnings ratio.

It just takes an incompetent moron as Chancellor (Gordon Brown being the latest example) to relax those rules and house price inflation goes bat-shit. Anyone remember mortgages of 5x earnings or 125% mortgages on his watch?

House prices are still 4.3 x average earnings, so a correction process is still going on. Instead of house prices falling, they now seem to be marking time while average wages slowly increase.

There's a lot of decent information on this site: House price news, information and discussion - HousePriceCrash.co.uk

Wordsmith
 
#13
Oh and dont get me started on flats and bungalows at low prices quiet areas only to find they are over 55 only residential areas, bastards,
Where are you looking? What's your budget?
 

Goatman

ADC
Book Reviewer
#14
HMMM...thought of starting a new thread but sort of related in that it hinges on property prices:

SOURCE

Pubs are closing across the country. This happens for a variety of reasons – the economic climate, increasing beer prices, supermarket discounting of alcohol and changing drinking habits.

There's nothing one can do, or indeed should do, to try to prevent the owner of an unviable business closing it down and making alternative use of the land. However, in Cambridge we have a particular problem. Because house prices are so high, it is sometimes worthwhile for the owner of a popular, profitable, viable pub to seek to pull it down and replace it with a block of flats, so that they can make even more money.

Following a large number of pub closures – and public campaigns to keep some of them open – in early 2012 Cambridge city council began to investigate ways it could use the planning system to try to keep popular and profitable pubs open. The Carpenter Arms is one pub that has reopened following refusal of permission to convert it to a residential property.

We had no policy on pubs in the 2006 local plan, and nothing much in national guidance until the National Planning Policy Framework was launched in March 2012. The first thing we did was commission the Cambridge Public House Study to give us some data and evidence that could be used to back up any planning policy change.

Using the study as an evidence base, we then drew up the Interim Planning Policy Guidance on protecting public houses. This set out how an applicant for planning permission for change of use should first demonstrate that the pub is not needed or not viable. Local and central planning committees in Cambridge have been using the NPPF and IPPG for some time now, with some success:

• The closure of some pubs where the applicant failed to prove lack of viability has been refused, and the refusals have been upheld at appeal. Some of these pubs were closed, and have now reopened or are planned to reopen.

• In the case of the site of The Ranch the applicant succeeded in proving lack of viability to the committee's satisfaction, and permission to redevelop was given. Successive landlords over many years had tried all sorts of business models and target markets, and none of them really worked – I think this pub was simply in the wrong location.

• In one case the developer put forward proposals to redevelop a pub site, including a large car park, to include a replacement pub as well as some flats. That's fine with councillors who don't mind losing the car parking – the pub is retained, the flats make the whole site more viable, and we don't want lots of people driving to, and particularly from, suburban community pubs anyway.

The story is not, however, one of unqualified success. Firstly, under the Use Classes Order there are some changes of use (eg from a pub to a building society) which do not need planning permission, so there is no opportunity for the planning rules to intervene at that point. Secondly, outside conservation areas no permission from the planning authority is needed to demolish a pub. In at least one case the appeal inspector took the view that, as the pub had been demolished, there was no established use of the site as a pub and so nothing that could be protected.

The view of the government is apparently that article 4 directions, which remove permitted development rights from particular buildings, should be used in these circumstances. We're looking into this possibility, but indications from other authorities are that this approach can be difficult and expensive. This point was made by several speakers, including myself, at a recent meeting of the All Party Parliamentary Save The Pub Group, and we will have to see whether ministers can be persuaded to change their minds.

We expect to move forward by including the principles from the IPPG in the Cambridge Local Plan 2014, where they will have more weight as policies than as guidance. We are also going to look at the practicality of using article 4 directions to control change of use and demolition.

And finally, when we do have a success and a pub is saved or re-opened, we must make a point of using the pub
.
 
#16
******* baby boomers, trying to get my self sorted with a house, in the estate agents and there was a couple downsizing, and buying two properties one for them and the other they were going to rent, so I eavesdropped the agent said that first time buyers could rent at 400-500, the greedy ******* wanted 600 pcm, on a 2 bedroom flat.

That would price me out of the market.

I honestly would not mind renting of a professional landlord, but off a greedy couple. When they left I mentioned to the agent and he said that a lot of babyboomers were doing it. He offered me a studio flat in a rough area of town, completely refused.

Homes under the hammer has something to answer for, as wealthy couples making 12k a house purchase and overpricing the market.

Anyhoo found somewhere just need to speak to the estate agent tommorrow.
I think our demographics are key. Those baby boomers are now sweating their assets as they retire, but will downsize en masse soon. This will skew the market with larger houses. That's going to change things a bit and the market may correct - it is happening in Japan right now and I've always maintained that they are demographically 10 years ahead of us...
 

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