Hong Kong - Its past, the current and future - where is it heading?

This is a minor story, but mildly interesting. There are apparently a few people living in Canada who say they are flying to Hong Kong to vote in the upcoming elections. Apparently you are supposed to be a resident of Hong Kong in order to vote, but these people think they will be able to vote. They are from Hong Kong originally, and I'm not sure whether they have been able to maintain residency status there while away. It's not a cut and dried situation, as it depends on a number of factors.
These young people are flying from B.C. to vote in Hong Kong's elections


The presence or absence of a handful of people such as this won't make a difference in the election, but it does show their degree of emotional attachment to recent events there.

From my perspective it looks like typical immigrant politics which we see in people who come from many parts of the world. This rarely leaks out into broader society unless there are enough of them to make them a voting block worth paying attention to.

Also in the same story, a former Hong Kong legislative councillor currently in Vancouver had some interesting things to say about the upcoming election in Hong Kong. He says that the elected council will have little real power, but election could still be a problem for president Xi Jinping. If those who oppose Xi win, then he would lose face and he could never allow that to happen.

It's not clear to me that this would be a serious problem for Beijing, but it perhaps suggests what the protesters are hoping for as a consolation prize.
If yellow wins then will the rioters stop and accept that democracy is the way forward?

If blue wins will they keep rioting because they don't ;like the result of a democratic vote?
 
Not entirely true, Whilst HK's contribution to China's GDP has declined dramatically since 1997 it is still the major gateway for inward investment into PRC.

Correct, though, that the university, and high school students, who make up the majority of the rioters have a massively over inflated sense of their own importance.
Agreed, it's the prime gateway for foreign direct investment to China - 60% of it. The point is, though, if it needs to be the major gateway any more. I'd strongly suggest it doesn't and that alternatives are being found PDQ.

The rioters are simply shooting themselves in the foot, destroying whatever decreasing importance HK has. They're demanding far more than was ever hinted at let alone agreed under the "one country - two systems" policy and far more than they ever had under UK rule. All they're doing is bringing forward 2047 when the policy expires anyway.
 
I'm not surprised that people in Taiwan would be following the situation in Hong Kong very closely, as they would see it as having some direct or indirect relevance to Taiwan.
This could get interesting!

'A Chinese spy has reportedly defected to Australia, offering up a trove of intelligence secrets about China's operations in Hong Kong and Taiwan. The Age reported that Wang "William" Liquiang is the first Chinese operative to "blow his cover." He's pleading with the Australian government for protection and currently hiding at an undisclosed location in Sydney. Wang said the Chinese government told its agents to pose as pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong and sent him "to their camp to find out all about their activities," and sent him to spy on Taiwan.'

 
Is there any indication as to how many of the activists have access to a foreign passport? I've been curious as to what their plans are after things have quieted down and they start to think about their own personal futures.
Given the ages and backgrounds, probably not many by now. The ones that do are likely to be concentrated in the upper ranks of the definitely-not-leadership.
Rather less than "not many". Very few have BNO passports, they're not inheritable, and give no right of residency / abode anyway.
 
This could get interesting!

'A Chinese spy has reportedly defected to Australia, offering up a trove of intelligence secrets about China's operations in Hong Kong and Taiwan. The Age reported that Wang "William" Liquiang is the first Chinese operative to "blow his cover." He's pleading with the Australian government for protection and currently hiding at an undisclosed location in Sydney. Wang said the Chinese government told its agents to pose as pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong and sent him "to their camp to find out all about their activities," and sent him to spy on Taiwan.'

Surprised they're not acting as agents-provacateurs .....
 
Surprised they're not acting as agents-provacateurs .....
You mean like this?

'Wang said the Chinese government told its agents to pose as pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong...'
 
This could get interesting!

'A Chinese spy has reportedly defected to Australia, offering up a trove of intelligence secrets about China's operations in Hong Kong and Taiwan. The Age reported that Wang "William" Liquiang is the first Chinese operative to "blow his cover." He's pleading with the Australian government for protection and currently hiding at an undisclosed location in Sydney. Wang said the Chinese government told its agents to pose as pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong and sent him "to their camp to find out all about their activities," and sent him to spy on Taiwan.'
If that's all he's offering, he'll have a pretty short stay in Australia. Common knowledge has very little value as intelligence.
 
You mean like this?

'Wang said the Chinese government told its agents to pose as pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong...'
That's not quite the same thing. The article reports Wang's information as being that they infiltrated the protestors to gather Int rather than act as APs. If you look to the 1989 protests in Beijing, the security forces used similar tactics as well as the highly sophisticated technique of walking up to the protestors and asking them what was going on.

Use of APs wouldn't be beyond the PRC but given the high octane emotional background of HK I doubt the youth needed much provocation.
 
Rather less than "not many". Very few have BNO passports, they're not inheritable, and give no right of residency / abode anyway.
There are more foreign passports available to HK residents than just BNO.
 
There are more foreign passports available to HK residents than just BNO.
I've seen figures for less than 60,000 BNO passports still being active in Hong Kong.

If the figure commonly given in the Canadian press is correct (300,000), then there are roughly 5 times as many people in Hong Kong with Canadian citizenship than there are BNO passport holders. According to those numbers approximately 4% of the people living in Hong Kong are Canadian citizens.

If the above figures are correct, then BNO passport holders account for only a small fraction of the foreign passport holders in Hong Kong.
 
Just reported an hour ago on the BBC:
Hong Kong elections: Pro-democracy group makes big gains

Hong Kong's opposition pro-democracy movement has made major gains in the Chinese territory's district council elections, local media reports say.

It took 201 of the first 241 seats declared, according to the South China Morning Post newspaper. Pro-Beijing candidates took just 28.

More than 2.9m people voted, a turnout of more than 71%, against 47% in 2015.


Pro-democracy group makes huge gains in HK poll
 
Here's an interview in Canada with former Hong Kong legislative council member Emily Lau. This was originally aired late last week. I don't think she came across well in the interview, both because she projects an aura of insincerity and because she avoided any real specifics. I also don't think she received as much sympathy from the interviewer as she hoped.

As a bit of context, there is mention of the Halifax International Security Forum at which she received an award from the Americans. This was probably the main reason she was in Canada to begin with.

The Halifax International Security Forum is an international security conference held each year in Halifax, Nova Scotia. The conference is held in Halifax, but the organization behind it is actually based in Washington DC. The US had a number of big guns in attendance this year who were pushing their anti-China agenda heavily. Canada was getting beat up by the Americans over not falling in line with the US anti-Huawei program and all the rest of the US plan. US official media ops were at full throttle, getting their message of China's threat to the world in Canadian newspapers.

Keep this in mind when Lau speaks of hearing a lot of support for herself and in favour of Canada taking a stronger line against China. She will have been spending time talking to people who were there specifically to spread the current US message and so telling her what she wanted to hear. The more cautious views projected by the interviewer in this video probably represent the more widely held view in Canada, which is to not get used as cannon fodder in a Washington-Beijing struggle for dominance.

 
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False flag or a real game changer? Either way, Chinese military intervention must be edging closer.

'While this great revolution of our times has removed Hong Kong’s bragging rights as one of the safest cities in the world, the security situation has not been deemed alarming enough for people to have to be dragged through metal detectors and frisked by security guards when entering shopping centres, cinema halls, train stations and other vulnerable public venues.

'In the past I have often contemplated how easy it would be for the terroristically inclined to set off bombs pretty much anywhere, in such a trusting and open society, but always perished the thought. Not in Hong Kong. Not by Hong Kongers. I hate to report I’m not so sure any more these days, now that the revolutionaries have taken to building home-made bombs packed with high explosives and shrapnel. Just this week, the police bomb squad defused two improvised explosive devices found on school grounds by chance.

'Investigators said the radio-controlled IEDs contained 10kg of high explosives and were “complete, fully functional and ready to be used”, primed to kill and maim over a range of up to 100 metres. Sources told the Post the lethal devices were meant to be used against police on December 8 – when hundreds of thousands were marching for greater democracy and human rights. The would-be bombers were apparently forced to abandon their plot after some of their alleged associates were arrested just hours before the mass rally, with police seizing weapons that included a pistol and more than 100 bullets.'


 
Further incidents involving explosives.

'On Saturday, police arrested three men for allegedly testing home-made explosive devices and chemicals in a secluded area on Siu Lang Shui Road in Tuen Mun. Police said the trio were testing the strength of remote-controlled devices, which were intended for use at mass anti-government protests. Officers also seized a radio-controlled detonation device and protective gear, including shields, bulletproof vests, a steel plate and gas masks at the scene. The tools were believed to have been used during the tests. One of those arrested was a 27-year-old laboratory technician from SKH St Simon’s Lui Ming Choi Secondary School in Tuen Mun while another man, 40, worked as an electrician. The third was unemployed.'

 
Not looking good for Hong Kong's second airline,

 
It must be the weekend; Hong Kong kicking off again.

'There were chaotic scenes in a popular Hong Kong shopping centre on Saturday afternoon as radical protesters and police scuffled several times, with undercover officers using pepper spray and pulling out retractable batons. Around two dozen riot police entered Harbour City in the tourist district of Tsim Sha Tsui and carried out a sweep of the mall, teaming up with a small group of undercover colleagues who had been stationed inside all afternoon as several hundred masked anti-government protesters roamed around during a so-called Christmas shopping rally.

'Already-high tensions were ratcheted up as protesters, who had been in the mall for hours chanting slogans and focusing on shops seen as pro-government to scare away consumers, claimed a plain-clothes officer reached for his sidearm. A police commander later said he was not aware of the incident. By that point, several scuffles had already broken out between radicals and the group of about 10 plain-clothes officers, who were quickly identified by protesters as police after they entered the mall. In one instance, pepper spray was used as a mob tried to charge at police after they briefly detained a protester said to have threatened one of the officers.'


 

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