Hong Kong - Its past, the current and future - where is it heading?

#1
I know the UK has had a big history with the place and they still have quite a lot of ties with you through passports etc, but where do you think it's heading? Do you think, most likely, it will be part of mainland China soon and all the HK traditions and freedoms will be subsumed? It's a very interesting place - and exciting one, when visiting. I was fortunate enough to take a few days there, as a break from my journey to look around - a lot of British traditions and customs still abound.

I have been there a few more times, but mainly as part of my journey to OZ.

 
#3
Hong Kong's future is inextricably linked to that of China which, in my opinion, means it is heading for an "interesting future" in the Confucian sense.
When China resumed Hong Kong it needed it to remain the dynamic trading centre that it was as China was undergoing its transformation from a closed, fully planned economy to a more capitalist model but that was far from complete so a trading centre, or portal, was needed. To that end, China was willing to put up with semi-democratic government and an English derived judicial system.
Now, that need has all but disappeared. However, with the growth of Emperor Xi that dynamic economic growth has become a mill-stone with runaway debt and state funded enterprises failing and the potential for serious trouble in China is growing daily. A semi-rebellious Hong Kong is a potential disaster for Xi which is why the pressure is being ramped up to bring it into line.
From the outside Xi seems impregnable but as other Communist states have shown, there are always opponents lurking nearby. The current state is built on the premise that the CP will allow nearly unfettered capitalism to flourish in return for allowing the CP an absolute hand to rule. That works when everyone is on the economic up-swing but runs into problems when the gravy-train stops and that is what is beginning to happen.
When people who have been "having it good" suddenly start running into problems then they become restless and if enough people get affected then I seriously doubt that the CP will have a chance. Yes, so long as the PLA backs them but history has shown, armies don't like having to turn their weapons on the citizenry for no good reason.
So, in the short-term Hong Kong will be forced to toe the Party line, but in the longer term its fate will be dependent on what happens to the mainland. My $0.02 worth.
 
#4
Hong Kong's future is inextricably linked to that of China which, in my opinion, means it is heading for an "interesting future" in the Confucian sense.
When China resumed Hong Kong it needed it to remain the dynamic trading centre that it was as China was undergoing its transformation from a closed, fully planned economy to a more capitalist model but that was far from complete so a trading centre, or portal, was needed. To that end, China was willing to put up with semi-democratic government and an English derived judicial system.
Now, that need has all but disappeared. However, with the growth of Emperor Xi that dynamic economic growth has become a mill-stone with runaway debt and state funded enterprises failing and the potential for serious trouble in China is growing daily. A semi-rebellious Hong Kong is a potential disaster for Xi which is why the pressure is being ramped up to bring it into line.
From the outside Xi seems impregnable but as other Communist states have shown, there are always opponents lurking nearby. The current state is built on the premise that the CP will allow nearly unfettered capitalism to flourish in return for allowing the CP an absolute hand to rule. That works when everyone is on the economic up-swing but runs into problems when the gravy-train stops and that is what is beginning to happen.
When people who have been "having it good" suddenly start running into problems then they become restless and if enough people get affected then I seriously doubt that the CP will have a chance. Yes, so long as the PLA backs them but history has shown, armies don't like having to turn their weapons on the citizenry for no good reason.
So, in the short-term Hong Kong will be forced to toe the Party line, but in the longer term its fate will be dependent on what happens to the mainland. My $0.02 worth.
I don't know much about the place - apart from having visited it a few times and I (apparently) lived there as a toddler for a couple of months when I was super young - don't remember. All I know is, it's a very conflicted place.
 
#5
There will be quite a few old sweats on the ARRSE site who were stationed there. My period was during Mao's cultural revolution. Miss those days.
 
#6
Personally, I could be completely wrong, as I have no clue about the region, unlike you Brits, China I think is in a bit of a quandary with how to deal with HK. They will of course absorb it eventually but they are trying to balance the fine line between what HK is and how it has been, the way business is done to how things are run in "mainland" China. And HK'rs, from what I gather, are still fiercely independent.

Like I said, this is a very outside opinion from someone who really hasn't spent too much time there.
 

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