Hong Kong - Its past, the current and future - where is it heading?

I know the UK has had a big history with the place and they still have quite a lot of ties with you through passports etc, but where do you think it's heading? Do you think, most likely, it will be part of mainland China soon and all the HK traditions and freedoms will be subsumed? It's a very interesting place - and exciting one, when visiting. I was fortunate enough to take a few days there, as a break from my journey to look around - a lot of British traditions and customs still abound.

I have been there a few more times, but mainly as part of my journey to OZ.

 
Hong Kong's future is inextricably linked to that of China which, in my opinion, means it is heading for an "interesting future" in the Confucian sense.
When China resumed Hong Kong it needed it to remain the dynamic trading centre that it was as China was undergoing its transformation from a closed, fully planned economy to a more capitalist model but that was far from complete so a trading centre, or portal, was needed. To that end, China was willing to put up with semi-democratic government and an English derived judicial system.
Now, that need has all but disappeared. However, with the growth of Emperor Xi that dynamic economic growth has become a mill-stone with runaway debt and state funded enterprises failing and the potential for serious trouble in China is growing daily. A semi-rebellious Hong Kong is a potential disaster for Xi which is why the pressure is being ramped up to bring it into line.
From the outside Xi seems impregnable but as other Communist states have shown, there are always opponents lurking nearby. The current state is built on the premise that the CP will allow nearly unfettered capitalism to flourish in return for allowing the CP an absolute hand to rule. That works when everyone is on the economic up-swing but runs into problems when the gravy-train stops and that is what is beginning to happen.
When people who have been "having it good" suddenly start running into problems then they become restless and if enough people get affected then I seriously doubt that the CP will have a chance. Yes, so long as the PLA backs them but history has shown, armies don't like having to turn their weapons on the citizenry for no good reason.
So, in the short-term Hong Kong will be forced to toe the Party line, but in the longer term its fate will be dependent on what happens to the mainland. My $0.02 worth.
 
Hong Kong's future is inextricably linked to that of China which, in my opinion, means it is heading for an "interesting future" in the Confucian sense.
When China resumed Hong Kong it needed it to remain the dynamic trading centre that it was as China was undergoing its transformation from a closed, fully planned economy to a more capitalist model but that was far from complete so a trading centre, or portal, was needed. To that end, China was willing to put up with semi-democratic government and an English derived judicial system.
Now, that need has all but disappeared. However, with the growth of Emperor Xi that dynamic economic growth has become a mill-stone with runaway debt and state funded enterprises failing and the potential for serious trouble in China is growing daily. A semi-rebellious Hong Kong is a potential disaster for Xi which is why the pressure is being ramped up to bring it into line.
From the outside Xi seems impregnable but as other Communist states have shown, there are always opponents lurking nearby. The current state is built on the premise that the CP will allow nearly unfettered capitalism to flourish in return for allowing the CP an absolute hand to rule. That works when everyone is on the economic up-swing but runs into problems when the gravy-train stops and that is what is beginning to happen.
When people who have been "having it good" suddenly start running into problems then they become restless and if enough people get affected then I seriously doubt that the CP will have a chance. Yes, so long as the PLA backs them but history has shown, armies don't like having to turn their weapons on the citizenry for no good reason.
So, in the short-term Hong Kong will be forced to toe the Party line, but in the longer term its fate will be dependent on what happens to the mainland. My $0.02 worth.
I don't know much about the place - apart from having visited it a few times and I (apparently) lived there as a toddler for a couple of months when I was super young - don't remember. All I know is, it's a very conflicted place.
 
There will be quite a few old sweats on the ARRSE site who were stationed there. My period was during Mao's cultural revolution. Miss those days.
 
Personally, I could be completely wrong, as I have no clue about the region, unlike you Brits, China I think is in a bit of a quandary with how to deal with HK. They will of course absorb it eventually but they are trying to balance the fine line between what HK is and how it has been, the way business is done to how things are run in "mainland" China. And HK'rs, from what I gather, are still fiercely independent.

Like I said, this is a very outside opinion from someone who really hasn't spent too much time there.
 
All getting quite tense. A potential re-run of Tianenmen in the offing?

'Hong Kong legislators have postponed the reading of a controversial extradition bill after tens of thousands of protesters flooded the streets of the city on Wednesday morning, surrounding buildings and blocking commuter traffic. Demonstrators knocked down barriers and tussled with police outside the offices of the Legislative Council where the proposed law was due to be debated at 11am, four days after they staged what was believed to be the largest protest march since Hong Kong was handed over to China from Britain in 1997.

'In what appeared to be a rare victory for protesters, a government statement said the debate on the bill would be "changed to a later time" yet to be decided. The extradition bill, which is backed by Beijing, would allow criminal suspects in Hong Kong to be sent for trial in mainland China. Critics say it would open up Hong Kong's political dissidents to show trials on the mainland, where standards of judicial independence and fair process are far weaker than in the semi-autonomous territory.'


Hong Kong extradition bill debate delayed as protesters flood streets and surround buildings
 
All getting quite tense. A potential re-run of Tianenmen in the offing?

'Hong Kong legislators have postponed the reading of a controversial extradition bill after tens of thousands of protesters flooded the streets of the city on Wednesday morning, surrounding buildings and blocking commuter traffic. Demonstrators knocked down barriers and tussled with police outside the offices of the Legislative Council where the proposed law was due to be debated at 11am, four days after they staged what was believed to be the largest protest march since Hong Kong was handed over to China from Britain in 1997.

'In what appeared to be a rare victory for protesters, a government statement said the debate on the bill would be "changed to a later time" yet to be decided. The extradition bill, which is backed by Beijing, would allow criminal suspects in Hong Kong to be sent for trial in mainland China. Critics say it would open up Hong Kong's political dissidents to show trials on the mainland, where standards of judicial independence and fair process are far weaker than in the semi-autonomous territory.'

Hong Kong extradition bill debate delayed as protesters flood streets and surround buildings

Ignore the video title.
 
From Mr. Wang and Mr. Dong?

'Opposition against a government proposal to overhaul Hong Kong’s extradition laws to allow suspects to be sent to mainland China for the first time ever is so widespread that it drew over a million people on to the streets in a weekend demonstration. Normally quiet business groups have also spoken out against it. Also joining the list of opposition voices are Hong Kong’s adult sites.

'As tens of thousands of protesters occupied the streets surrounding key government buildings in central Hong Kong this morning (June 12) in anticipation of the second reading of the extradition bill in the legislature, two local porn sites voiced their support. On its landing page, ThisAV.com displayed an expletive-laden message addressed to Hong Kong officials and pro-Beijing lawmakers expressing the site’s opposition to the extradition law with the help of multiple references to genitals.'


Porn sites join Hong Kong fight's against extradition law
 
From Mr. Wang and Mr. Dong?

'Opposition against a government proposal to overhaul Hong Kong’s extradition laws to allow suspects to be sent to mainland China for the first time ever is so widespread that it drew over a million people on to the streets in a weekend demonstration. Normally quiet business groups have also spoken out against it. Also joining the list of opposition voices are Hong Kong’s adult sites.

'As tens of thousands of protesters occupied the streets surrounding key government buildings in central Hong Kong this morning (June 12) in anticipation of the second reading of the extradition bill in the legislature, two local porn sites voiced their support. On its landing page, ThisAV.com displayed an expletive-laden message addressed to Hong Kong officials and pro-Beijing lawmakers expressing the site’s opposition to the extradition law with the help of multiple references to genitals.'

Porn sites join Hong Kong fight's against extradition law
If this is allowed to go through, then Hong Kong is just another Chinese city.

You ever get the feeling that Xi Jinping has been China’s worst enemy? He has managed to throw a wrench in quite a few things for the Chinese.
 
Good to see Hong Kong still has the British stiff upper lip
Charging with umbrellas; how very British. At least not tanks and Molotov cocktails (yet?).

'Hong Kong police have fired rubber bullets and tear gas at demonstrators who threw plastic bottles as protests against an extradition bill that would allow people to be sent to mainland China for trial descended into violent chaos.

'Tens of thousands of protesters had gathered peacefully outside the Chinese-ruled city’s legislature before tempers flared, some charging police with umbrellas. Police warned them back, saying: “We will use force.”
Police used pepper spray, tear gas and batons to force crowds back, while some individuals were chased.'


HK protests turn violent as police move in
 
If this is allowed to go through, then Hong Kong is just another Chinese city.

You ever get the feeling that Xi Jinping has been China’s worst enemy? He has managed to throw a wrench in quite a few things for the Chinese.
As the Chinese would say, 'time will tell'.
 
Charging with umbrellas; how very British. At least not tanks and Molotov cocktails (yet?).

'Hong Kong police have fired rubber bullets and tear gas at demonstrators who threw plastic bottles as protests against an extradition bill that would allow people to be sent to mainland China for trial descended into violent chaos.

'Tens of thousands of protesters had gathered peacefully outside the Chinese-ruled city’s legislature before tempers flared, some charging police with umbrellas. Police warned them back, saying: “We will use force.”
Police used pepper spray, tear gas and batons to force crowds back, while some individuals were chased.'


HK protests turn violent as police move in
Being HK, I bet after all this subsides they will go back and clean up the streets of all the trash themselves!
 
Being HK, I bet after all this subsides they will go back and clean up the streets of all the trash themselves!
I'd believe it in Singapore, but maybe not in an increasingly angry and concerned HK.
 
Will be interesting after 2047 - that's when a lot of the current special provisions for HK are set to expire, like being an SAR...if it's not already accelerated before that..

Hong Kong's 'year 2047 problem'
I can't imagine Xi waiting another 28 years to deal with the status of HK (or Taiwan).
 
If this is allowed to go through, then Hong Kong is just another Chinese city.
It is. This 'one country, two systems' never had legs. It was only ever there for the short term.

Even Taiwan has lost most of its former friends and supporters.
 

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