History in the making

#1
Having watched the last few days with keen interest, I now think that today will be bloody. I can't see any capitulation yet in the markets but we must be close. A 30% fall on the FTSE 100 from the peak last year would take us to 4700.

So, today, we will overshoot - and I reckon we will reach 4300.

Will 2008 be added to the South Sea Bubble, Tulip Mania and the Great Depression? I doubt it, but we are watching history in the making!

Litotes
 
#2
All very exciting stuff....apparently. What really grips me over this is the media's high brow reporting of all this stuff. What does it actually all mean? I'm sure the FTSE hitting 4300 is really bad, but how does this affect Joe average?
 
#3
Agreed chap, as much as its a bitter pill to swallow in the US like it was here I dont understand why they didnt bail out their economy.

It is almost as if they want it to happen, hard times ahead for many I fear.
 
#4
Disco said:
Agreed chap, as much as its a bitter pill to swallow in the US like it was here I dont understand why they didnt bail out their economy.

It is almost as if they want it to happen, hard times ahead for many I fear.
Apparently most people aren't keen on bailing out muppets in Wall Street that make millions of dollars a year, screw up and want taxpayers to cover their loses.
Sort of a they fukked up, why shoud we foot the bill?" attitude. Can't say I blame them either! I'm of much the same opinion with whats going on here.

In reality an awful lot of people have been robbed blind by banks and big corporations of late (not to mention the taxman) and don't see why they should bail out the big boys.

What is the reality if a deal is not reached? I suspect most people think that the only real benefits of billions of dollars of their money propping up the banks will be for the banks and their directors.
 
#5
It's funny though with all these telephone numbers being thrown at the financial market companies, we were only talking about a near £1 billion overspend by the HUGE and well worthwhile NHS a couple of years ago that the Govt said was not tolerable. At least with the NHS we actually all got something for our money. £24 billion plus to Northern Rock ....... it didn't do me any favours at all - I don't 'do' shares. Immoral the lot of it !

D_B
 
#6
I agree jagman but when its all screwed and we have nothing to protect us as savers what do you do?

They have us by the balls so we either stump up as tax payers and watch the vultures swoop in or do nothing and watch families go to the wall (in my very simplified understanding of these events).
 
#8
Disco said:
I agree jagman but when its all screwed and we have nothing to protect us as savers what do you do?

They have us by the balls so we either stump up as tax payers and watch the vultures swoop in or do nothing and watch families go to the wall (in my very simplified understanding of these events).
What do we do? I have no idea, I drive a van for a living these days :oops:
Harsh reality is that the real beneficiaries from bailing the banks out will be men like this http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/apr/19/subprimecrisis.useconomy
Why should taxpayers here and in the USA subsidise these people? I recognise that something must be done but what I have no idea.
What even I can understand (I think!) is that the banking/stock broking system is broken in a big way, is the real solution to prop it up with the money of those of us who can ill afford it to continue in the same fashion?
As far as I can see the bail out being applied here and proposed in the USA simply props up the profiteers that have created the problem in the 1st place.
 

Biped

LE
Book Reviewer
#9
Interesting point to note: The FTSE100, in the 11 years the Labliar 'Economic Miracle' has been at play, has never gone above that which it was in the last days of the Conservative gobment, and of course, now, it's dropping like a stone.

Telling? You decide.
 
#10
The Great Lord, Clarkson, may high octane be heaped upon his fuel tank, warned of this catastrophe in 2004.(1)

Linky


I read a book by Niall Ferguson while on holiday this year. It’s called Colossus, it’s about the American empire and it argues that already the gap between what America has and what it needs to keep its old people in burgers is $45 trillion.

Now I don’t know what a trillion is but I do know that $45 trillion is roughly 10 times more than the total combined wealth of Germany, France, Italy and Britain. It seems there are three ways this vast deficit can be covered: they can either increase taxes, immediately, by 69% or cut medicare benefits by more than a half, or stop all federal purchases for ever.

I haven’t seen either John Kerry or George W Bush suggest they’ll be doing any of these things. And that’s bad news because the situation is becoming more critical. If nothing has happened by 2008, taxes will have to go up by 74%.
No president, of course, will ever impose any such increase, which means that with the certainty of Titanic’s fate once it had hit the iceberg, America will go spectacularly bankrupt. It is, according to the author, an inescapable fact.

Hear his name, tremble to his Fuel Injection.

May no NIPs cross his path





(1) Well, to be strictly accurate, he read a book then warned us.
 
#11
Biped said:
Interesting point to note: The FTSE100, in the 11 years the Labliar 'Economic Miracle' has been at play, has never gone above that which it was in the last days of the Conservative gobment, and of course, now, it's dropping like a stone.

Telling? You decide.
I don't know where you got that - it peaked at 6995 in December 2000
 
#12
Litotes said:
Having watched the last few days with keen interest, I now think that today will be bloody. I can't see any capitulation yet in the markets but we must be close. A 30% fall on the FTSE 100 from the peak last year would take us to 4700.

So, today, we will overshoot - and I reckon we will reach 4300.

Will 2008 be added to the South Sea Bubble, Tulip Mania and the Great Depression? I doubt it, but we are watching history in the making!

Litotes
Every bone in my body agrees with your short-term predictions, but for reasons beyond me, even though we are still in early trading, we are still, as of 10.20am, above 4800.
 
#13
parapauk said:
Biped said:
Interesting point to note: The FTSE100, in the 11 years the Labliar 'Economic Miracle' has been at play, has never gone above that which it was in the last days of the Conservative gobment, and of course, now, it's dropping like a stone.

Telling? You decide.
I don't know where you got that - it peaked at 6995 in December 2000
I am quite sure it was December 1999.
 
#14
parapauk said:
Biped said:
Interesting point to note: The FTSE100, in the 11 years the Labliar 'Economic Miracle' has been at play, has never gone above that which it was in the last days of the Conservative gobment, and of course, now, it's dropping like a stone.

Telling? You decide.
I don't know where you got that - it peaked at 6995 in December 2000
Exactly - we've been in a bear market since. BP look cheap thought at the mo. But I think I'll wait till piling in.
 
#15
Bonzo_Dog said:
parapauk said:
Biped said:
Interesting point to note: The FTSE100, in the 11 years the Labliar 'Economic Miracle' has been at play, has never gone above that which it was in the last days of the Conservative gobment, and of course, now, it's dropping like a stone.

Telling? You decide.
I don't know where you got that - it peaked at 6995 in December 2000
I am quite sure it was December 1999.
Yes, you're right.
 
#16
Greed. I worked for Washington Mutual (WaMu) - the CEO had actively pursued short term gains which rewards the exec bonus pool but which inevitably exposed the company to suicidal levels of risk. They just got sold out to JPM Chase for peanuts.

The outgoing CEO was paid over 14 million dollars per annum and received a termination bonus of over 23 million dollars - and he failed at his job. The replacement CEO, who was employed by the company for 17 days prior to it's sale is receiving over twenty million dollars.

How much is enough?
 
#17
AAGF said:
Greed. I worked for Washington Mutual (WaMu) - the CEO had actively pursued short term gains which rewards the exec bonus pool but which inevitably exposed the company to suicidal levels of risk. They just got sold out to JPM Chase for peanuts.

The outgoing CEO was paid over 14 million dollars per annum and received a termination bonus of over 23 million dollars - and he failed at his job. The replacement CEO, who was employed by the company for 17 days prior to it's sale is receiving over twenty million dollars.

How much is enough?
Therein lies the problem, some muppet got $20 Million for running a compnay that piled in for 17 days. WTF for? Managing to sell it without having to blow his brains out? Bonuses should be recoverable, it's no good paying out $23 Million to some muppet when the Bank piles in 5 mintues after he's walked out the door. Bonsuses got stupid too fast, not helped by Tax regimes that punish.
 
#18
Litotes said:
Having watched the last few days with keen interest, I now think that today will be bloody. I can't see any capitulation yet in the markets but we must be close. A 30% fall on the FTSE 100 from the peak last year would take us to 4700.

So, today, we will overshoot - and I reckon we will reach 4300.

Will 2008 be added to the South Sea Bubble, Tulip Mania and the Great Depression? I doubt it, but we are watching history in the making!

Litotes
Fook me the sky is falling.......
 

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#19
The complaint that everyone has is that the cash to help out is being disbursed from the top down - ie the very people who failed to spot the waterfall they were steering us towards. They will simply make sure that they save their necks.

Put the money with the people who are suffering.

Guarantee all homeowner's residence and all savings. Take $700,000,000,000 and give the lot to the taxpayer. No means tests; no favouritism. Allow the bank to go under - the taxpayer will still want a bank to use, and the 700 Billion will go to well managed, viable banks. This should also be combined with a swingeing one off tax on the pensions, pay and bonuses of all of the financiers, bankers, hedge-fund managers and "Masters of the Universe." They gambled with OUR money. They lost - we suffer.
 
#20
Enlightenment said:
The complaint that everyone has is that the cash to help out is being disbursed from the top down - ie the very people who failed to spot the waterfall they were steering us towards. They will simply make sure that they save their necks.

Put the money with the people who are suffering.

Guarantee all homeowner's residence and all savings. Take $700,000,000,000 and give the lot to the taxpayer. No means tests; no favouritism. Allow the bank to go under - the taxpayer will still want a bank to use, and the 700 Billion will go to well managed, viable banks. This should also be combined with a swingeing one off tax on the pensions, pay and bonuses of all of the financiers, bankers, hedge-fund managers and "Masters of the Universe." They gambled with OUR money. They lost - we suffer.
$2333 in every US citizens pocket isn't going to mean anything if the system implodes. Guarantee all houses and savings would present liabilities of ten of trillions. What about pension funds? Guarantee them?: tens of trillions more. Any other options? No. You can't just tell banks to do things, they need to function sustainably if they are to offer day-to-day credit lines for businesses to function. Let the government take over? They'd have to pay by printing all the money they needed, causing hyperinflation. How would the hyperinflation be fixed? By gutting money creation, meaning savings and such couldn't be guaranteed.
 
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