Azerbaijan has been scrupulously careful not to advance beyond its agreed international border.
The Russians really dont want to get involved, there is no strategic value to Armenia, it will bring in the Turks, and they are playing with home advantage, have very large and very sharp teeth, and can invoke NATO if Russia crosses their border to hit their territory.
what we will see after the dust is settled will be a formal defence treaty between Turkey and Azerbaijan - ‘Two countries, one people’ as Erdogan says, to ensure the border stays fixed, with Turkish forces based in Azerbaijan.
and then there is the trade interests - as always, follow the money
Baku is commuted to what they are calling ‘The Great Return’, getting 1 million displaced Azeris back into the recovered land.
However, the Armenians have conducted a total scorched earth policy over the last 25 years, levelling every single thing from whole towns down to individual homes and it will require a massive reconstruction effort. Turkey has the people and construction companies, and the experience doing huge reconstruction efforts across whole regions thanks to earthquakes, and Azerbaijan has the money. Everyone wins.
and yes, Erdogan has big interests in construction companies.
The Russians really dont want to get involved, there is no strategic value to Armenia, it will bring in the Turks, and they are playing with home advantage, have very large and very sharp teeth, and can invoke NATO if Russia crosses their border to hit their territory.
what we will see after the dust is settled will be a formal defence treaty between Turkey and Azerbaijan - ‘Two countries, one people’ as Erdogan says, to ensure the border stays fixed, with Turkish forces based in Azerbaijan.
and then there is the trade interests - as always, follow the money
Baku is commuted to what they are calling ‘The Great Return’, getting 1 million displaced Azeris back into the recovered land.
However, the Armenians have conducted a total scorched earth policy over the last 25 years, levelling every single thing from whole towns down to individual homes and it will require a massive reconstruction effort. Turkey has the people and construction companies, and the experience doing huge reconstruction efforts across whole regions thanks to earthquakes, and Azerbaijan has the money. Everyone wins.
and yes, Erdogan has big interests in construction companies.