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Heavy fighting erupts over separatist Nagorno-Karabakh (Armenia Vs Azerbaijan)

Highly likely this time it will be serious, full scale war. Baku was preparing for it for years and has superior fire-power, better equipped, more numerous army.
The Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan cooled relations with Moscow to be close to Washington. So Putin has no reason to help him at least just now.
Russia, Armenia and 4 other countries are members of CSTO.
So from formal point of view, Russia and Armenia are allies but combat operations take place outside Armenia, on the territory of Azerbaijan.
In 1982 NATO didn't help the UK during the Falkland war for similar reason. I mean direct military help.

But NATO didn't have the likes of the Wagner Group for plausible denialability of military operations in the Falkland War
 
But NATO didn't have the likes of the Wagner Group for plausible denialability of military operations in the Falkland War
I don't know the reason why, but Russia's behaviour does not match its posturing. It is somewhat reluctantly involved in Syria, for example. It hasn't been as assertive towards Turkey (a market for Russian weapons) as it might have been. Armenia is (ought to be?) different - a Christian state; close links to Russia; standing against an expansionist Turkey. But @KGB_resident suggests that Russia may not be keen to get involved. How useful an ally is Russia?
 
I don't know the reason why, but Russia's behaviour does not match its posturing. It is somewhat reluctantly involved in Syria, for example. It hasn't been as assertive towards Turkey (a market for Russian weapons) as it might have been. Armenia is (ought to be?) different - a Christian state; close links to Russia; standing against an expansionist Turkey. But @KGB_resident suggests that Russia may not be keen to get involved. How useful an ally is Russia?

Probably a better question to ponder is, 'Hmm: wonder what Putin is up to elsewhere, now that he's lit a little fire over there . . . ?'
 
There you go...
 
Armenia
No proven oil or gas reserves.


Azerbaijan
proven oil reserves - 7 Billion barrels
proven gas reserves - 35 Trillion cubic feet
 
I'm left wondering about the Russian angle here. In theory, Armenia has Russian support but has Erdogan called Putin's bluff? Turkish forces may be playing a role here; Syrian Jihadis - funded by Turkey - definitely are. Being in Russia's camp is helpful to Armenia only if Russia does something. Much as Erdogan is a ****, he does tend to act as well as talk.
Armenia have been cosying up to NATO while remaining outside actual membership. This includes taking part in NATO military operations in places like Kosovo and Afghanistan. So far all NATO countries have done to support Armenia has been to issue diplomatic statements of concern. It looks like having a foot in NATO's camp isn't doing Armenia much good either.

The wide-ranging nature of the IPAP means that Armenia is not only cooperating with NATO in the defense sphere, but is in regular consultation with the Allies on rule of law, transparency of reforms, counter-terrorism and the fight against corruption. As part of the IPAP, NATO agrees to support Armenia in achieving its reform goals through providing focused advice and assistance.

Armenia also makes important contributions to NATO-led operations. In 2004, Armenian forces joined the NATO-led peacekeeping operations in Kosovo; the Armenian contingent in KFOR was doubled in 2008 to include about 70 personnel. Since February 2010, Armenian contributes to the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan.

Armenia also cooperates with NATO and other Partner countries in a wide range of other areas through the Partnership for Peace (PfP) programme and the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council (EAPC). Armenia tailors its participation in the PfP programme through an annual Individual Partnership Programme, selecting those activities that will help achieve the goals it has set in the IPAP.


Relations with Armenia
Relations with NATO started in 1992, when Armenia joined the North Atlantic Cooperation Council. This forum for dialogue was succeeded in 1997 by the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council, which brings together all Allies and partner countries in the Euro-Atlantic area.
Bilateral cooperation began when Armenia joined the Partnership for Peace (PfP) programme in 1994.
 

4(T)

LE
Am I right in thinking the area of concern is completely surrounded by Azerbaijani territory, or is there some sort of corridor from Armenia?

It was originally separated from Armenia by a sliver of land. However, after the last scrap in 1994, the area is solidly bordered by Armenia - some extra bits of Azerbaijan having been taken as well.


Bizarrely, a large chunk of "Azerbaijan" - the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic - is wholly enclosed within Armenia.


Ideal solution would be to swap territories and relocate the populations!
 
Am I right in thinking the area of concern is completely surrounded by Azerbaijani territory, or is there some sort of corridor from Armenia?

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Am I right in thinking the area of concern is completely surrounded by Azerbaijani territory, or is there some sort of corridor from Armenia?
Nagorno-Karabakh is theoretically completely surrounded by Azerbaijan, but Armenia have also occupied the territory that lies between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia.

Note that there is also a chunk of Azerbaijan that is sandwiched in between Armenia and Iran and has no direct land corridor to connect it to the rest of Azerbaijan.

Edit to add: I see that someone else has posted the same map as I did while I was composing my post.

 
Perhaps - I was referring to British troops deployed there, as I was.
I think it depended on where and when you were there. Certainly, the lads whose first tour was Op Storm era could be rather more sympathetic to the Krajina Serbs and the early Grapple veterans less so to Serbs and Croats.

They all contained their murdering scum and it was largely down to opportunity who got to do the murdering.
 
I'm left wondering about the Russian angle here. In theory, Armenia has Russian support but has Erdogan called Putin's bluff? Turkish forces may be playing a role here; Syrian Jihadis - funded by Turkey - definitely are. Being in Russia's camp is helpful to Armenia only if Russia does something. Much as Erdogan is a ****, he does tend to act as well as talk.
The main problem in Russian-Armenian relations is the new Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan. He is openly pro-American but at the same time Armenian military has good contacts with the Russians on many levels including personal ones. Russia has a military base in Armenia. I suppose that Moscow wait for political changes in Yerevan and at this point is not very active as previously.
 
Try RT . . . and then try to work-out if they (RT), are supporting one side or the other?! ;) .
It should be noted that the head of RT Margarita Simonyan is ethnically Armenian.
 
I don't know the reason why, but Russia's behaviour does not match its posturing. It is somewhat reluctantly involved in Syria, for example. It hasn't been as assertive towards Turkey (a market for Russian weapons) as it might have been. Armenia is (ought to be?) different - a Christian state; close links to Russia; standing against an expansionist Turkey. But @KGB_resident suggests that Russia may not be keen to get involved. How useful an ally is Russia?
The USA is the main and the most powerful British ally. But in 1982 there was no direct military help from Washington, only intelligence. For Russia the situation is not exactly the same but similar. Combat operations are taking place in internationally recognised territory of Azerbaijan.
 
The USA is the main and the most powerful British ally. But in 1982 there was no direct military help from Washington, only intelligence. For Russia the situation is not exactly the same but similar. Combat operations are taking place in internationally recognised territory of Azerbaijan.
At what point (if any) would Russian concern about Turkey getting involved in Muslim states on Russia's borders, prompt action from Russia? (stronger diplomatic action, more indirect or direct assistance to Armenia, etc). Or is that off the cards for the reasons you state?
 

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