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Heavy fighting erupts over separatist Nagorno-Karabakh (Armenia Vs Azerbaijan)

I don't fully understand the relationship but Turkey and Russia have a lot of common interests in the region and in the
Middle East. For example, Syria; and the fact that Turkey is a customer of Russian arms manufacturers.
In Syria, Russia and Turkey have different aims but have been careful not to harm each other directly (mostly). In Northern Syria, Russia and Turkey have joint patrols for example.
I wonder therefore whether Russia's relationship with Turkey, and a wish not to inflame community relations inside Russia (large Armenian and Azeri communities) trumps anything Russia might gain by helping Armenia?
I don't know whether there is any domestic pressure in Russia to help Armenia.

Russia and Turkey have mutual interests - suppressing militant islam.

Russia doesn’t want its former Stans becoming new Afghanistans, neither does Turkey which is busily exporting it’s influence and secular brand of Turkish Islam to its Turkic Stan neighbours.

Russia doesn’t have an Islamist problem, Turkey gets its Ottoman trade Empire back, everyone wins.

B76118D1-2F23-4391-B845-33604B4706D1.jpeg
 
Turkey and Russia are on opposite sides in Syria and Libya. That said, escalating the tension would be very risky as Turkey is a serious power and is attached to NATO.

I can't see the Russians getting involved on Baku's side - Baku is rich and doesn't need them - and taking the Armenian side strongly would provoke the Turks. Also the most the Russians would get out of it is the Armenians' gratitude.

Unless the Armenians are absolutely desperate, I think what the Russians are waiting for is an opportunity that would put both sides in their debt.
 
Also, a friend of mine who has lived in the Caucasus including NK (as an aid worker) says he thinks it will drag on - Armenia has the diaspora as a reserve of money and recruits, it has the mountains, and it has plenty of motivation (fear of 1915), Azerbaijan has a bigger population and it has oil. Neither side is going to run out of either men or money soon and the ground makes a decisive battle difficult to achieve.
 
Russia and Turkey have mutual interests - suppressing militant islam.

Russia doesn’t want its former Stans becoming new Afghanistans, neither does Turkey which is busily exporting it’s influence and secular brand of Turkish Islam to its Turkic Stan neighbours.

Russia doesn’t have an Islamist problem, Turkey gets its Ottoman trade Empire back, everyone wins.
Turkey which is busily exporting it’s . . . secular brand of Turkish Islam

:) :) :)
 
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4(T)

LE
Also, a friend of mine who has lived in the Caucasus including NK (as an aid worker) says he thinks it will drag on - Armenia has the diaspora as a reserve of money and recruits, it has the mountains, and it has plenty of motivation (fear of 1915), Azerbaijan has a bigger population and it has oil. Neither side is going to run out of either men or money soon and the ground makes a decisive battle difficult to achieve.


Absurdly, the Azeris earlier this month offered to let the majority Armenian population of a reoccupied NK self rule as an autonomous oblast/region within Azerbaijan.

- which, of course, simply resets everything back to 1988, when the whole NK secession thing kicked off in the first place.


To suppress NK, now, the Azeris will have to carry out a substantial amount of ethnic cleansing. The problem with "setting wrongs right" is that they'll have to remove a generation of young fighting age* Armenians born in NK, and replace them with Azeris who have spent 26 years making a new life elsewhere - or who have no prior connection to NK.

One wonders how enthusiastic Azeri people will be to give up their established lives elsewhere to go and be a pioneer in a region that is likely to be swept by violence for years to come?


*This is significant. The Armenians will have a very large number of NK men in their 20s who have "lost their homes to the enemy", whereas the Azeris will be reimporting men who will have to be in their 40s and 50s to even recall adult life in pre-secession NK. If it comes down to a new guerrilla campaign in NK, then there will be a significant motivation gap between the factions.
 
Absurdly, the Azeris earlier this month offered to let the majority Armenian population of a reoccupied NK self rule as an autonomous oblast/region within Azerbaijan.

- which, of course, simply resets everything back to 1988, when the whole NK secession thing kicked off in the first place.


To suppress NK, now, the Azeris will have to carry out a substantial amount of ethnic cleansing. The problem with "setting wrongs right" is that they'll have to remove a generation of young fighting age* Armenians born in NK, and replace them with Azeris who have spent 26 years making a new life elsewhere - or who have no prior connection to NK.

One wonders how enthusiastic Azeri people will be to give up their established lives elsewhere to go and be a pioneer in a region that is likely to be swept by violence for years to come?


*This is significant. The Armenians will have a very large number of NK men in their 20s who have "lost their homes to the enemy", whereas the Azeris will be reimporting men who will have to be in their 40s and 50s to even recall adult life in pre-secession NK. If it comes down to a new guerrilla campaign in NK, then there will be a significant motivation gap between the factions.

It will be interesting to see how such a scenario would play out once the Azeries have full contol over their own undisputed territory that surrounds and lies between NK and Armenia.
 
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It will be interesting to see how such a scenario would play out once the Azeries have full contol over their own undisputed territory that lies between NK and Armenia.
For the NK crowd? I'll go with "badly".
 
Absurdly, the Azeris earlier this month offered to let the majority Armenian population of a reoccupied NK self rule as an autonomous oblast/region within Azerbaijan.

- which, of course, simply resets everything back to 1988, when the whole NK secession thing kicked off in the first place.


To suppress NK, now, the Azeris will have to carry out a substantial amount of ethnic cleansing. The problem with "setting wrongs right" is that they'll have to remove a generation of young fighting age* Armenians born in NK, and replace them with Azeris who have spent 26 years making a new life elsewhere - or who have no prior connection to NK.

One wonders how enthusiastic Azeri people will be to give up their established lives elsewhere to go and be a pioneer in a region that is likely to be swept by violence for years to come?


*This is significant. The Armenians will have a very large number of NK men in their 20s who have "lost their homes to the enemy", whereas the Azeris will be reimporting men who will have to be in their 40s and 50s to even recall adult life in pre-secession NK. If it comes down to a new guerrilla campaign in NK, then there will be a significant motivation gap between the factions.

not necessary so absurd.

Armenia
GDP: $33 Billion
Per capita: $11,000

Azerbaijan
GDP: $190 Billion
Per capita: $19,000

Azerbaijan has a plan for what they call ‘The Great Return’, Use their oil wealth to rebuild the liberated lands. Meanwhile NK, after 30 years of ‘Independence’ is nothing but a 3rd world dump that’s depopulating already at a substantial rate, as is equally impoverished Armenia

so the rump NK would be at best 50-100,000 people living in grinding and increasing poverty in their mountains, watching a million displaced Azeris come home to the surrounding land to free new houses, new roads, schools, hospitals, the lot.

Armenia talks a good talk, but it’s well on its way to being a properly failed state. Since Independence, it’s achieved, well, nothing, it’s no better off than under soviet rule, arguably worse, it exports nothing much but people - see the great store made of the much vaunted ‘Armenian Dispora’ - I don’t see the Kardashians rushing back to Armenia. the reason for the Dispora is there is nothing for most people in Armenia, so they leave. it’s a one trick pony of a country, obsessed with victimhood, it’s de facto state religion, it’s living in a past and refuses to move on.....and now it’s made a formidable set of enemies who have very deep pockets.

An Armenian terrorist campaign inside Azerbaijan proper? They haven’t done anything like that in the last 30 years, but good luck trying it now when you would be handing the Azeris the Carte Blanche to deal with the .’problem’....if they were launching terror raids on Azerbaijan from Armenia, Putin would happily look the other way when the Azeris retaliated. He’s made it abundently clear, he wants an end of this, so will take a very dim view of Pashinyan starting a terror campaign on sovereign Azerbaijan soil.
Do like Israel, create a border buffer zone and patrol it with armed drones.

And as for the million Azeri IDP’s? There’s a strong desire to go home to areas some that are at the centre of Azeri cultural history.
 
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not necessary so absurd.

Armenia
GDP: $33 Billion
Per capita: $11,000

Azerbaijan
GDP: $190 Billion
Per capita: $19,000

Azerbaijan has a plan for what they call ‘The Great Return’, Use their oil wealth to rebuild the liberated lands. Meanwhile NK, after 30 years of ‘Independence’ is nothing but a 3rd world dump that’s depopulating already at a substantial rate, as is equally impoverished Armenia

so the rump NK would be at best 50-100,000 people living in grinding and increasing poverty in their mountains, watching a million Azeris come home to the surrounding land to free new houses, new roads, schools, hospitals, the lot.

Armenia talks a good talk, but it’s well on its way to being a properly failed state. Since Independence, it’s achieved, well, nothing, it’s no better off than under soviet rule, arguably worse, it exports nothing much but people - see the great store made of the much vaunted ‘Armenian Dispora’ - I don’t see the Kardashians rushing back to Armenia. the reason for the Dispora is there is nothing for most people in Armenia, so they leave. it’s a one trick pony if a country, obsessed with victimhood, it’s de facto state religion, it’s living in a past abd refuses to move in....and now it’s made a formidable set of enemies who have very deep pockets.

An Armenian terrorist campaign inside Azerbaijan proper? They haven’t done anything like that in the last 30 years, but good luck trying it now when you would be handing the Azeris the Carte Blanche to deal with the .’problem’....if they were launching terror raids on Azerbaijan from Armenia, Putin would happily ook the other way when the Azeris retaliated.
Do like Israel, create a border buffer zone and patrol it with armed drones.

I can think of one thing Armenia has achieved. It has become a functioning democracy, unlike the dictatorship in Azerbaijan.

You also appear to be under the false impression that all the money pouring into Azerbaijan has some how benefited the population. It hasn't.

Poverty, repression in shadow of Azerbaijan's shiny new skyline - France 24

Families living in poverty in the shadow of Azerbaijan's luxury sports stadiums

 
Based only on a reading of news, etc it seems that Russia may not help. The damage may be to Russia's standing, as Armenia will wonder what the benefits of the treaty are. Even though the treaty specifies that Russia will help if Armenia proper is attacked, Armenia is getting a kicking in NK and Putin isn't helping.
Hold on to the popcorn though as the whole situation is likely unpredictable. :)
Putin has been clear so far that he doesn't plan on having Russia take sides. He wants to broker a cease fire and peace deal, and he can't do that if he takes sides. There is an official peace process called the "Minsk Group", the most recent meeting of which was in Washington, and Russia would find themselves without influence in it if they were to take sides and become a co-belligerent.

We should also keep in mind that Armenia's association with NATO (Partnership for Peace, and taking part in NATO deployments) hasn't done them much good either, with NATO member Turkey taking part in the war and the rest of NATO showing a distinct lack of interest in supporting their supposed "partner" Armenia.

I suspect that Russia will prevent Azerbaijan from invading Armenia proper, but the rest of the world will do little other than issue vaguely worded press releases expressing hopes for peace.
 
Putin has been clear so far that he doesn't plan on having Russia take sides. He wants to broker a cease fire and peace deal, and he can't do that if he takes sides. There is an official peace process called the "Minsk Group", the most recent meeting of which was in Washington, and Russia would find themselves without influence in it if they were to take sides and become a co-belligerent.

We should also keep in mind that Armenia's association with NATO (Partnership for Peace, and taking part in NATO deployments) hasn't done them much good either, with NATO member Turkey taking part in the war and the rest of NATO showing a distinct lack of interest in supporting their supposed "partner" Armenia.

I suspect that Russia will prevent Azerbaijan from invading Armenia proper, but the rest of the world will do little other than issue vaguely worded press releases expressing hopes for peace.
I saw an interesting tweet this morning about the war in NK undermining the reputation and usefulness of bodies such as NATO; OSCE; COST, etc. It seems (and I confess this is a simplification) that anyone with the balls to say 'I'm going to do x and bank on it being too much hassle/too complex for others to stop me' can get away with throwing their weight around. Erdogan is the prime example. I understand why that's the case but it will be giving regional leaders the wrong idea.
 
I saw an interesting tweet this morning about the war in NK undermining the reputation and usefulness of bodies such as NATO; OSCE; COST, etc. It seems (and I confess this is a simplification) that anyone with the balls to say 'I'm going to do x and bank on it being too much hassle/too complex for others to stop me' can get away with throwing their weight around. Erdogan is the prime example. I understand why that's the case but it will be giving regional leaders the wrong idea.

isn't it a reflection of reality though?
 
I agree. I think Erdogan is pretty shrewd but, if he keeps getting his own way, he may one day overplay his hand. And I genuinely don't understand Russia's position in putting up with Turkish involvement in a formerly Soviet state.
I think earlier in this thread Sergey gave a reasonable-sounding outline of the whys and wherefores of it.
As long as the subject is only NK, what reason does she have to take sides?
 
I think earlier in this thread Sergey gave a reasonable-sounding outline of the whys and wherefores of it.
As long as the subject is only NK, what reason does she have to take sides?
Good point. To clarify, I understand the reasons Sergey set out. I'm more surprised that there is not some form of emotional desire on Russia's part to defend a Christian state against Turkey.
 
Good point. To clarify, I understand the reasons Sergey set out. I'm more surprised that there is not some form of emotional desire on Russia's part to defend a Christian state against Turkey.

They kind of are. When the front line got closer to Lachin this appeared just inside the Armenian border.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">A photo by TASS photographer Sergei Bobylev shows a Russian field camp set up near Tegh, close to the Lachin pass which connects Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia. Azerbaijani forces have made advances towards the pass in recent days.<br><br>⚡️ Live updates: <a href="Live updates: Day 29 of fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh">Live updates: Day 29 of fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh</a> <a href="https://t.co/8aBamiCvPI">pic.twitter.com/8aBamiCvPI</a></p>&mdash; OC Media (@OCMediaorg) <a href="">October 25, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
Good point. To clarify, I understand the reasons Sergey set out. I'm more surprised that there is not some form of emotional desire on Russia's part to defend a Christian state against Turkey.

Az is actually a secular state that has far more ethnic diversity than Armenia. I imagine the attititude of Russia and the world would be completely different if was Armenia that was being attacked, but it isn't. So far the declared objective is just NK. The self-declared republic of Artsakh is not a member of the UN and is not recognized by any member and/or observer of the UN. It takes more than sympathy to get major powers involved. France appears to have more sympathy even than Russia but still isn't doing anything about it.
 
They kind of are. When the front line got closer to Lachin this appeared just inside the Armenian border.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">A photo by TASS photographer Sergei Bobylev shows a Russian field camp set up near Tegh, close to the Lachin pass which connects Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia. Azerbaijani forces have made advances towards the pass in recent days.<br><br>⚡️ Live updates: <a href="Live updates: Day 29 of fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh">Live updates: Day 29 of fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh</a> <a href="https://t.co/8aBamiCvPI">pic.twitter.com/8aBamiCvPI</a></p>&mdash; OC Media (@OCMediaorg) <a href="">October 25, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
That's a hopeful sign for Armenia.
 
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