Heavy fighting erupts over separatist Nagorno-Karabakh (Armenia Vs Azerbaijan)

[PhotEx]

It looks as if Armenia has formally asked Russia for help.


From link in tweet:

'On October 31, RA Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan sent a letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin, detailing the situation created by the Azerbaijani-Turkish military aggression against Nagorno Karabakh and the challenges that have arisen.

In particular, the letter stressed the fact that foreign armed terrorists were transferred from the Middle East and involved in hostilities against Nagorno Karabakh.

Taking into account the facts of hostilities on the territory of the Republic of Armenia approaching the border of the Republic of Armenia, the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia addressed the President of the Russian Federation to start immediate consultations to determine the type of assistance that the Russian Federation can provide to the Republic of Armenia. Recognizing the allied relations between Armenia and Russia in 1997 Article 2 of the Agreement on Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance of August 29, 2006.'

Question: has the wording of the letter been agreed with Russia in advance, to allow Russia to become involved and say it is responding to treaty obligations? Or is Armenia asking despite knowing that Russian help will be limited or even not forthcoming?

Pashinyans last desperate throw of the dice, fortified with his forces now firing in Azeri forces from inside Armenia to draw return fire so he can run to Putin and try and Invoke the defence treaty.

The games up as soon as Shusha falls, abd Putin hasn’t been exactly falling over himself On the aid Front.

 

[Red Hander]

Pashinyans last desperate throw of the dice, fortified with his forces now firing in Azeri forces from inside Armenia to draw return fire so he can run to Putin and try and Invoke the defence treaty.

The games up as soon as Shusha falls, abd Putin hasn’t been exactly falling over himself On the aid Front.

I think it might help: it is a direct appeal for aid, so Putin will appear unwilling to help a country Russia has undertaken to help, and that's bad in terms of reputation. At minimum it will cause Russia to do more to bring about a real ceasefire. If there is internal pressure in Russia to assist Armenia, perhaps more? In any case, there's no harm in asking.

 

[4(T)]

Legally, it’s not ethnic cleansing when you are ejecting incomers who ethnically cleansed the former inhabitants.

Jabrayil District (1979 census)

Azerbaijanis 98,5% (42,415)
Russians 1% (434)
Armenians 0,1% (41)
Lezgins 0,1% (33)


current Azerbaijanis 0% (0)
same across all 7 occupied Azerbaijan Districts.

Attitudes like that are why these conflicts never get resolved.

 

[LEGZ30]

I thought ethnic cleansing went out of vogue 20 years ago?

If the Azeris manage to break into NK proper it is about to come back into style in a very big way.

 

[PhotEx]

I think it might help: it is a direct appeal for aid, so Putin will appear unwilling to help a country Russia has undertaken to help, and that's bad in terms of reputation. At minimum it will cause Russia to do more to bring about a real ceasefire. If there is internal pressure in Russia to assist Armenia, perhaps more? In any case, there's no harm in asking.

Putins got to watch Ukraine....
how so?

Kyiv is in the same boat as Baku, wants it’s land back, and has now forged an alliance with a Turkey to get the very best playing field levelling drones. It’s got a licence to build the Bayraktar TB2, and it’s a key development partner in the new Turkish Akinci heavy strike drone.

Putin doesn't want this to go on, it’s sending the wrong ‘you can do this too’ message to Ukraine, and he doesnt want the Turks to wade in, which they could, they have a long Armenian border they could mischief make along. And does Putin really want to pick a fight with an extremely powerful and notoriously belligerent NATO military playing with home advantage?

Pashinyans in deep denial, he’s losing, and losing badly, but he still seems to think he can pull a rabbit out if the hat and get back to where he was. The Armenians won last time because the Regiments of battle handed Russian ‘Afghansti’, notionally there as peacekeepers, waded in on the ‘Christian’ side vs ‘Muslims’. Times have changed, all the Russians have on the Armenian ground is a cut off slack regiments worth of bored soldiers with very limited muscle.


Putins already made it publicly plain he wants some variation on the Madrid deal, Armenia pulls out all its forces, Azerbaijan gets all its land back, NK gets to be independent in reality, not part of a Greater Armenia, and there are land swaps to give land corridors to Nakchivan, Meghri Corridor, (Which Yerevan will not accept, they rejected that last time, thats its last notionally ‘friendly‘ external border - Iran- closed), and one to NK, Lachin Corridor. He’s not going to ride in on a white horse to drive the Azeris out and give Pashinyan, who he doesn’t approve of, a glorious victory.

 

[PhotEx]

If the Azeris manage to break into NK proper it is about to come back into style in a very big way.

not many left now, as of mid week, 90,000 had hopped on a bus to Armenia.

 

[LEGZ30]

not many left now, as of mid week, 90,000 had hopped on a bus to Armenia.

Which leaves at least 50,000 civilians in there.

 

[LEGZ30]

'This Is A Different War': Nagorno-Karabakh Refugee Shudders At Video Showing Neighbors' Execution

A Nagorno-Karabakh war refugee from Hadrut tells the story of two ethnic Armenian men whose execution in the town was filmed and distributed on social media.

www.rferl.org

 

[PhotEx]

Using phosphor is to incinerate fleeing civilians! Oh, that would be the non existent civilians in the almost unpopulated far north?


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">most approximately geolocation of bombardment with phosphorus bombs which was used by Azerbaijan. It&#39;s around Murovdag. Btw there clearly seen a lot of fires west of Talish on satellite images<a href="Kotsnews">Kotsnews</a><a href="40°16'06.8"N 46°27'38.6"E">40°16'06.8"N 46°27'38.6"E</a><br>40°16&#39;06.8&quot;N 46°27&#39;38.6&quot;E <a href="https://t.co/5W1iFcTGD3">pic.twitter.com/5W1iFcTGD3</a></p>&mdash; Ghost watcher (@ghost_watcher1) <a href="">October 30, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[PhotEx]

Which leaves at least 50,000 civilians in there.

Azerbaijan has left the Lachin Corridor open and publically stated civilians will be allowed to pass in safety.

 

[LEGZ30]

Azerbaijan has left the Lachin Corridor open and publically stated civilians will be allowed to pass in safety.

Is that the same Lachin Corridor that you have been telling us is about to be cut for over a week now?

This now sounds like you are openly supporting ethnic cleansing, which is a whole new low, even for you.

 

[PhotEx]

Is that the same Lachin Corridor that you have been telling us is about to be cut for over a week now?

This now sounds like you are openly supporting ethnic cleansing, which is a whole new low, even for you.

Lachin? Good tactics to leave a defeated enemy an escape route.

And it’s not ‘ethnic cleansing’ when you are driving out occupying forces,

 

[LEGZ30]

Lachin? Good tactics to leave a defeated enemy an escape route.

Interesting. That is the complete opposite of what you were saying up until a couple of days ago.

And it’s not ‘ethnic cleansing’ when you are driving out occupying forces,

Driving out a civilian population that has been there for 2,000+ years isn't ethnic cleansing? I think the Hague might disagree on that one.

 

[RCT(V)]

It looks as if Armenia has formally asked Russia for help.


From link in tweet:

'On October 31, RA Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan sent a letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin, detailing the situation created by the Azerbaijani-Turkish military aggression against Nagorno Karabakh and the challenges that have arisen.

In particular, the letter stressed the fact that foreign armed terrorists were transferred from the Middle East and involved in hostilities against Nagorno Karabakh.

Taking into account the facts of hostilities on the territory of the Republic of Armenia approaching the border of the Republic of Armenia, the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia addressed the President of the Russian Federation to start immediate consultations to determine the type of assistance that the Russian Federation can provide to the Republic of Armenia. Recognizing the allied relations between Armenia and Russia in 1997 Article 2 of the Agreement on Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance of August 29, 2006.'

Question: has the wording of the letter been agreed with Russia in advance, to allow Russia to become involved and say it is responding to treaty obligations? Or is Armenia asking despite knowing that Russian help will be limited or even not forthcoming?

With the interesting prospect of Russian forces (in whatever form), engaging directly with those of Turkey !!

As this will "played" on/at, a neutral venue – NOT threatening the integrity of a NATO members’ homeland – it is to be hoped that the rest of NATO do NOT (need to) get engaged.

“Popcorn and beers, sit-back, and watch” .

 

[PhotEx]

Driving out a civilian population that has been there for 2,000+ years isn't ethnic cleansing? I think the Hague might disagree on that one.

2,000 years? There is independent news footage from the 90’s of bus loads of Armenians coming in from Armenia proper to loot Lachin, an Azeri town.
you don’t think the 90,000 who’ve jumped back on a bus to Armenia might have been worried about the consequences of their previous bus tour?

 

[Red Hander]

With the interesting prospect of Russian forces (in whatever form), engaging directly with those of Turkey !!

As this will "played" on/at, a neutral venue – NOT threatening the integrity of a NATO members’ homeland – it is to be hoped that the rest of NATO do NOT (need to) get engaged.

“Popcorn and beers, sit-back, and watch” .

Based only on a reading of news, etc it seems that Russia may not help. The damage may be to Russia's standing, as Armenia will wonder what the benefits of the treaty are. Even though the treaty specifies that Russia will help if Armenia proper is attacked, Armenia is getting a kicking in NK and Putin isn't helping.
Hold on to the popcorn though as the whole situation is likely unpredictable.

 

[LEGZ30]

2,000 years? There is independent news footage from the 90’s of bus loads of Armenians coming in from Armenia proper to loot Lachin, an Azeri town.
you don’t think the 90,000 who’ve jumped back on a bus to Armenia might have been worried about the consequences of their previous bus tour?

After pages and pages of this I am still not sure if you are being deliberately disingenuous or if you are completely ignorant of the history of the area.

 

[postman_twit]

Must admit it's strange seeing Putin dither.

 

[Red Hander]

Must admit it's strange seeing Putin dither.

I don't fully understand the relationship but Turkey and Russia have a lot of common interests in the region and in the
Middle East. For example, Syria; and the fact that Turkey is a customer of Russian arms manufacturers.
In Syria, Russia and Turkey have different aims but have been careful not to harm each other directly (mostly). In Northern Syria, Russia and Turkey have joint patrols for example.
I wonder therefore whether Russia's relationship with Turkey, and a wish not to inflame community relations inside Russia (large Armenian and Azeri communities) trumps anything Russia might gain by helping Armenia?
I don't know whether there is any domestic pressure in Russia to help Armenia.

 

[PhotEx]

With the interesting prospect of Russian forces (in whatever form), engaging directly with those of Turkey !!

As this will "played" on/at, a neutral venue – NOT threatening the integrity of a NATO members’ homeland – it is to be hoped that the rest of NATO do NOT (need to) get engaged.

“Popcorn and beers, sit-back, and watch” .

welllllllll.......

so the Russians take a hand, say start flying air ops over NK.

Turkey ‘gives’ some F-16’s to its ’fraternal brother’ Azerbaijan. Azeri is a Turkic language, mutually comprehensible by Turkish Turks, it would be hard to prove the F-16’s now with quickly added Azeri markings were being flown by Turkish Turks. And Aleyev has already said he has the keys to some F-16’s if he needs them.

Yerevans problem is it has no friends and geography

to the West - Turkey, no love lost there.
to the South - Iran, they will not want a piece of this action, they have their own ethnic Azeri issues.
to the East - Azerbaijan
to the North - Georgia, who don’t have much love with Russia, or separatist enclaves being grabbed, and whilst not NATO, are trying to get in.

so, unless Georgia decided to allow unlimited Russian road, rail and air access across its territory to Russia, which it doesn't, Russia can’t do much, unless it fancies violating Georgian territorial integrity and that opens a new can of worms.