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Heavy fighting erupts over separatist Nagorno-Karabakh (Armenia Vs Azerbaijan)

The Armenians have overplayed their hand, they should have done a deal and quit while they were ahead 25 years ao.

Now?
Sultan Erdogan the Magnificent has a plan, and he's going to see it through. He wants to reconnect the Turkic peoples, and he has the muscle to see it through.

See that pipeline?

View attachment 514377

Imagine if there was a land corridor to Nakhchivan… it could be through secure friendly Turkic turf all the way. Oh yes, and Israeli gets 43% of its oil and Gas from Baku, unsurprisingly, they are supplying Azerbaijan their very bestest drone war toys and missiles.

Top play by Pashinyan - He's now got BOTH the regional superpowers, Turkey and Israel, on his case.
Armenia has no where to go, they are defending NK and can arguably continue to do so, for at least parts thereof. The situation and future looks convenient for Az/Turkey on a map, but Armenia sees this as an existential issue - for good reason based on past experience of Turkey.
The situation in NK may shift more to an asymmetric form of fighting, given Armenian losses. Although I can't prove this, the fighting will be bloodier for Azerbaijan, and longer-lasting, than you anticipate. History provides many examples of the attempted take-over of mountainous territory being either protracted or failing.
 
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Armenia has no where to go, they are defending NK and can arguably continue to do so, for at least parts thereof. The situation and future looks convenient for Az/Turkey on a map, but Armenia seems this as an existential issue - for good reason based on past experience of Turkey.
The situation in NK may shift more to an asymmetric form of fighting, given Armenian losses. Although I can't prove this, the fighting will be bloodier for Azerbaijan, and longer-lasting, than you anticipate. History provides many examples of the attempted take-over of mountainous territory being either protracted or failing.

and what would that achieve?

Nagorno Karabakh was already a very depopulated failed state with a rapidly declining and very small population. It’s got no resources, no strategic value, zip, zilch, nada.
so some diehards hide up in the hills of An empty unpopulated desert? They’d rapidly end up like the Japanese hold outs after WWII, alone, dying out, permanently hunted, no hope of anything resembling victory. What would Armenia do? Smuggle in conscripts to support the hopeless insurgency?
Armenia makes a lot of play of it’s diaspora, while skating over the arkward facts behind it.
it’s a failed state, its in population decline, it’s been mired in endless war since it’s formation, it’s political class has no plan other than wallow in endless victimhood. All its young face 2 years as a conscript in Nagorno Karabakh sitting in a muddy hilltop trench...... unsurprisingly, those that can, go live somewhere else. And sending conscripts to die a lonely futile death in a hopeless lost cause would only accelerate that.

Armenias fixation with a Turkey has become a self fulfilling prophecy. It’s created it’s own new nightmare as Erdogan brings a robust Turkish nationalism out of the shadows.
top tip, be like Israel, move on, get over it, don’t go throwing stones and rude words at the big kids, but no, Armenia is a State locked in permanent victimhood, it’s its sole raison detre, it just wont let it go. So it’s sees everything as a cunning plot to exterminate it, and sure enough, all the neighbours have got fed up with it and it’s relentless paranoia, even the Russian in laws.
 
and what would that achieve?

Nagorno Karabakh was already a very depopulated failed state with a rapidly declining and very small population. It’s got no resources, no strategic value, zip, zilch, nada.
so some diehards hide up in the hills of An empty unpopulated desert? They’d rapidly end up like the Japanese hold outs after WWII, alone, dying out, permanently hunted, no hope of anything resembling victory. What would Armenia do? Smuggle in conscripts to support the hopeless insurgency?
Armenia makes a lot of play of it’s diaspora, while skating over the arkward facts behind it.
it’s a failed state, its in population decline, it’s been mired in endless war since it’s formation, it’s political class has no plan other than wallow in endless victimhood. All its young face 2 years as a conscript in Nagorno Karabakh sitting in a muddy hilltop trench...... unsurprisingly, those that can, go live somewhere else. And sending conscripts to die a lonely futile death in a hopeless lost cause would only accelerate that.

Armenias fixation with a Turkey has become a self fulfilling prophecy. It’s created it’s own new nightmare as Erdogan brings a Turkish nationalism out if the shadows.
top tip, be like Israel, move on, get over it, don’t go throwing stones and rude words at the big kids, but no, Armenia is a State locked in permanent victimhood, it’s its sole raison detre, it just wont let it go. So it’s sees everything as a cunning plot to exterminate it, and sure enough, all the neighbours have got fed up with it, even the Russian in laws.
If NK is such a useless territory, why is Azerbaijan fighting for it?

'...no resources, no strategic value...' to quote you.
 
If NK is such a useless territory, why is Azerbaijan fighting for it?

'...no resources, no strategic value...' to quote you.

principle, but they will trade it away.
They want their seven provinces around it back, the provinces previously home to nearly a million Azeris before Armenia overran and ethnically cleansed and totally destroyed them.
 
If I was an Armenian, I’d want to make sure I was safely behind Armenia propers borders once the neighbours take back their land, they won’t love you none more....

Azerbaijan town of Agdam, had a population of 40,000, Azeri population driven out and the town systematically destroyed to stop their return, the entire occupied zone is the same, total systematic destruction

2B8BD9FA-F30F-4458-A2CB-C28E5DFF25A0.jpeg
 
The next day or two will be decisive.



<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Footage from last night (can tell from the sunset) confirms that the Azerbaijani advance was *much* further up the Hakari river valley, within 10km of the Lachin highway, which is Stepanakert&#39;s last road to Armenia <a href="https://t.co/iozauudOUM">https://t.co/iozauudOUM</a> <a href="https://t.co/nmTkhd3Gec">pic.twitter.com/nmTkhd3Gec</a></p>&mdash; Ryan O&#39;Farrell (@ryanmofarrell) <a href="">October 22, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
Armenians report the road through Lacin Corridor now under sustained fire by Grad rocket artillery, and Stepanekert being heavily shelled.
 
Published by: Stepanakert [Stringer/Reuters], Aljazeera, on 22 October 2020.

Azeri president says Armenians can have ‘cultural autonomy’

Ilham Aliyev also said he was not against the introduction of observers and peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh.


Azeri President Ilham Aliyev has said he would not rule out what he termed “cultural autonomy” for ethnic Armenians in the mountain enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, Russia’s RIA news agency reported.

Aliyev on Thursday also said he was not against introducing observers and peacekeepers to the region, but that Baku would present its own conditions.

But hopes of ending nearly a month of bloodshed were receding as Azeri and ethnic Armenian forces fought new battles, on the eve of talks in Washington.

Azerbaijan’s defence ministry on Thursday accused Armenia of firing several ballistic missiles from its territory at the Azerbaijani cities of Gabala, Siyazan and Kurdamir, which are located far from the area of fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh. It said there were no casualties.

The Armenian military rejected the claim as a “cynical lie”.

Azeri and Armenian foreign ministers are expected to hold talks on Friday with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in separate meetings.

With fighting having spilled into a fourth week, international organisations have once again raised calls for the two sides to lay down their arms.

Nagorno-Karabakh lies within Azerbaijan but has been under the control of ethnic Armenian forces backed by Armenia since a war there ended in 1994.

The current fighting that started on September 27 has already killed hundreds, marking the biggest escalation in the conflict since the war’s end, and raising fears of an all-out war that could draw in Turkey and Russia.

1603541964578.png
photo: A worker stands on the back of a truck as he removes debris near a residential building, which was damaged during the military conflict over the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh, in Stepanakert [Stringer/Reuters]


 
Iran has been signalling its displeasure about collateral damage for much of the conflict. It looks like they might be going to do something about it. If they do, Erdogan's next move will be worth watching!

'Iranian troops have been moved to the Azerbaijan-Iran border amid conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, multiple news outlets reported.

'Locals residents have spotted Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps troop movements along the state border between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Azerbaijan.

'Some Twitter user wrote: “Dozens of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, together with soldiers, are heading to the north of Iran to the border with Nagorno-Karabakh.” A journalist and military aviation analyst, Babak Taghvaee has released on its Twitter account the short video shows military convoy with over 30 T-72M1 main battle tanks and BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles as well as several Tor-M1 and Khordad Surface to Air Missile systems of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps just arrived all along the borderline with Azerbaijan.'


 
That road leads to central Nackchivan, a looooong way from the fighting.
just a bit of ‘look at us! posturing by the IRGC.
 
That road leads to central Nackchivan, a looooong way from the fighting.
just a bit of ‘look at us! posturing by the IRGC.

I'd have thought a master strategist like you would know the maxim of going where your enemy isn't. The concept has been around since Sun Tzu.
 
Iran has been signalling its displeasure about collateral damage for much of the conflict. It looks like they might be going to do something about it. If they do, Erdogan's next move will be worth watching!

'Iranian troops have been moved to the Azerbaijan-Iran border amid conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, multiple news outlets reported.

'Locals residents have spotted Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps troop movements along the state border between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Azerbaijan.

'Some Twitter user wrote: “Dozens of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, together with soldiers, are heading to the north of Iran to the border with Nagorno-Karabakh.” A journalist and military aviation analyst, Babak Taghvaee has released on its Twitter account the short video shows military convoy with over 30 T-72M1 main battle tanks and BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles as well as several Tor-M1 and Khordad Surface to Air Missile systems of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps just arrived all along the borderline with Azerbaijan.'



Such as?
 

Try Google?




 
Try Google?





Thank you @SkippedOnce. I genuinely haven't seen that mentioned on thread or elsewhere.
 
I'd have thought a master strategist like you would know the maxim of going where your enemy isn't. The concept has been around since Sun Tzu.

I‘d have thought you might look at a map and notice Iran shares a long and heavily militarised border with Turkey who’s military utterly overmatch the Iranians.

it’s a bit of kabuki theatre for internal consumption, Iran won’t lift a finger against Azerbaijan.

517C6B5B-D927-4617-8FE7-799D982F714E.jpeg
 
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If I was an Armenian, I’d want to make sure I was safely behind Armenia propers borders once the neighbours take back their land, they won’t love you none more....

Azerbaijan town of Agdam, had a population of 40,000, Azeri population driven out and the town systematically destroyed to stop their return, the entire occupied zone is the same, total systematic destruction

View attachment 514420

When did that happen?
 
When did that happen?

During the first bout when Armenia destroyed hundreds of Azeri towns and villages and drove out nearly a million of The inhabitants at gunpoint to create its ‘security zone’.
BTW, mass expulsions of populations and wanton destruction of their habitations is a major war crime.

of course that time, the Armenians were backed by Russian troops, now? No Russian muscle and the Armenians are calling foul at getting their arses handed to them.
 
During the first bout when Armenia destroyed hundreds of Azeri towns and villages and drove out nearly a million of The inhabitants at gunpoint to create its ‘security zone’.
BTW, mass expulsions of populations and wanton destruction of their habitations is a major war crime.

Just to be clear, when was the ‘first bout’?
 

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