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Heavy fighting erupts over separatist Nagorno-Karabakh (Armenia Vs Azerbaijan)

If you insist.

For anyone that is an old fart like me and conscripts look like children to you, the first video includes footage of a platoon's worth of Azeri conscripts being gunned down as they try to run away, it's not a nice thing to watch.




oh yes, the obligatory long shots, interspersed with some grainy footage from the early days of the Azeri assaults of the front line fortifications, and they managed to destroy a whole 1 BTR and recon jeep from a forward unit advancing up towards Lacin the other day....
great success by Armenia, great success indeed.

Meanwhile, Azeri forces are rolling up the Armenian army .

 
Naughty!

 
oh yes, the obligatory long shots, interspersed with some grainy footage from the early days of the Azeri assaults of the front line fortifications, and they managed to destroy a whole 1 BTR and recon jeep from a forward unit advancing up towards Lacin the other day....
great success by Armenia, great success indeed.

Meanwhile, Azeri forces are rolling up the Armenian army .

There are Azerbaijani losses - SOHR reports 170 dead Syrian fighters, from those shipped in by Erdogan. The Azerbaijani MoD hasn't, iirc, published details of their losses but Oryx reports the loss of 59 vehicles of all types. That is much less than the equipment lost by Armenia but each vehicle is crewed and men are being killed. In addition, some/much combat is taking place and not being filmed - sites like Oryx are reporting only losses verified from social media or official sources. Despite the loss of many men and much equipment, Azerbaijan is advancing into defended villages, etc and will be taking casualties.
One might speculate that the refusal by Azerbaijan to publish losses is itself an admission that there are significant losses - not on the scale of the Armenian losses perhaps.
 
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I think there is quite a lot of political & social media activity in Russia trying to prompt Putin to "do something" to help Armenia.
Such efforts are waste of time. I'm sure that Putin would not do anything until political changes in Yerevan. While openly pro-US PM Pashinyan is at power Putin will not interfere on Armenian side.

He's rather painted himself into a corner over the years by developing strongly nationalistic themes - including faux religious fervour around Orthodox brethren (e.g. Armenia).
Russian and Georgian Orthodox Churches are sister Churches. In fact (from religious point of view) it is one Church. Georgian saint Nina is recognised as a saint in Russian Orthodox Church (btw, name of my late Mother was Nina). For Russians the Georgians are real Orthodox Brethren and the Ukrainians as well. But political problems and even wars between brothers are not so rare.
By contrast Armenian Christian Church is not Orthodox but is one of Oriental Christian Churches as Lebanese Maronite Church for example.

Now that its become clear that the vision of a new soviet union isn't going to happen - with Ukraine gone, Belarus wobbly, Georgia gone, the 'stans now gravitating towards Turkey/China - the Slav and Orthodox brotherhood themes have taken more prominence.

Anyway, Russian weddings and social life would take a big hit if the supply of Armenian cognac and wine is interrupted..
Yes, in Soviet times Armenian brandy that was sold as 'cognac' was very popular. But now Russian supermarkets are full of alcohol - Russian made and imported. It is possible to find Ukrainian vodka and beer, Georgian brandy, wine and ... even Georgian beer (Natakhtari is very good indeed). Armenian brandy is present in different types and even Armenian beer (though it is not super-good for my taste). Cognac and brandy from Europe can be found in Russian supermarkets as well.
Russian counter-sanctions are not extended to alcohol. Recent weeks I consumed Polish, Latvian, Lithuanian, Dutch, a lot of German and Belgian beer and one day Boddingtons pub ale with its creamy foam along with Welsh stout (will not drink it again).
 
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Meanwhile the Armenians try to find support in EU and NATO
President Armen Sarkissian of Armenia has departed for Brussels where he is scheduled to have meetings with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell, President of the European Council Charles Michel and a number of other high level officials.
I suspect that EU and NATO will not help Armenian side.
“It is expected that the leadership of NATO and the European organizations will do everything possible to stop the Azerbaijani and the NATO-member Turkey’s military actions, which will enable to bring to life the truce agreements,” Sarkissian’s Office said.
They expect it in vain.
 
Just now Putin is giving interview (translated on Russia-24 TV-channel). He has been asked by American journalist Livin about Karabakh conflict.
Putin said:
There are 2 mln. Armenians in Russia and 2 mln. Azeris.
Both countries for Russia are equal partners.
Putin said that according to his information each side lost more than 2 thousands killed and overall number of killed is near 5000.
Putin said that he is in daily contacts with leaders of both countries.
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It is clear that Moscow tries to remain neutral and hardly will be on Armenian side - at least soon.
 
Azerbaijani forces closing on the Lacin Corridor

 
Just now Putin is giving interview (translated on Russia-24 TV-channel). He has been asked by American journalist Livin about Karabakh conflict.
Putin said:
There are 2 mln. Armenians in Russia and 2 mln. Azeris.
Both countries for Russia are equal partners.
Putin said that according to his information each side lost more than 2 thousands killed and overall number of killed is near 5000.
Putin said that he is in daily contacts with leaders of both countries.
-----------
It is clear that Moscow tries to remain neutral and hardly will be on Armenian side - at least soon.
From what I have read, it appears that Russia will not intervene so long as Azerbaijan does not cross into Armenia proper.
 
From Twitter:

They don't look the most professional bunch but on the other hand they're not exactly demoralised either.

I wonder if the tree canopy will give them any real advantage against drones/LMs?
 

4(T)

LE
They don't look the most professional bunch but on the other hand they're not exactly demoralised either.

I wonder if the tree canopy will give them any real advantage against drones/LMs?


I wonder what IFF the Azeri ground troops have, now that they're mixed in at close quarters?

Two sets of blokes with identical weaponry and near-identical kit. The drone operators must have tight weapon control orders if they're to avoid home goals.
 
They don't look the most professional bunch but on the other hand they're not exactly demoralised either.

I wonder if the tree canopy will give them any real advantage against drones/LMs?

harsh winter in the mountains, small bands of holdouts with no civpop to support them, and the all seeing eye up there 24/7/365 waiting and watching.....

The rules have changed - the Azeris don't have to go up after them, their drones have 24 hour endurance and IR

5ABDCFAD-24F6-4B36-AC40-FF2F2D6F65F1.jpeg
 
I wonder what IFF the Azeri ground troops have, now that they're mixed in at close quarters?

Two sets of blokes with identical weaponry and near-identical kit. The drone operators must have tight weapon control orders if they're to avoid home goals.
As mentioned previously, down on the arid open plains and with clear skies the drones have been operating at their maximum effectiveness. In forested mountains it will get more challenging.

Also I don't know what the weather is like in the mountains in winter. There may be a lot of overcast skies and general poor visibility, further hampering the drones.

The forests we saw were mainly deciduous, and the leaves have turned colour. It's quite pretty actually, and reminds me of my own country (Canada). The leaves will be dropping however, and some of the concealment with it. That doesn't mean all the concealment will vanish, as the branches and tree trunks will still limit the range of visibility that a drone will have, limiting its effectiveness.

We'll have to see if the Azerbaijanis will still be able to use their drones to the same degree of advantage that they have up until now.
 
harsh winter in the mountains, small bands of holdouts with no civpop to support them, and the all seeing eye up there 24/7/365 waiting and watching.....

The rules have changed - the Azeris don't have to go up after them, their drones have 24 hour endurance and IR

View attachment 514295
The Azerbaijanis will have to go after them, imo. You can't leave large areas of territory to host enemy forces. That's why - in the Armenian videos - there was fighting going on as presumably Azerbaijani forces pushed into the areas. In the sort of territory in your photo, there will be natural cover and, on reflection, all UAV footage seen has been from open areas.
I don't deny that Armenia is losing but they are still fighting and not it seems without the desire to do so.
Over 1,000 Armenian dead so far. Russia says 2,000 dead overall, so Azerbaijan losses are heavy in terms of personnel if not of equipment.
It will be interesting to see whether adverse weather can help Armenia stabilise the situation. That may be why Azerbaijan is pushing hard for the main Armenia/NK road atm.
 
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The Azerbaijanis will have to go after them, imo. You can't leave large areas of territory to host enemy forces. That's why - in the Armenian videos - there was fighting going on as presumably Azerbaijani forces pushed into the areas. In the sort of territory in your photo, there will be natural cover and, on reflection, all UAV footage seen has been from open areas.
I don't deny that Armenia is losing but they are still fighting and not it seems without the desire to do so.
Over 1,000 Armenian dead so far. Russia says 2,000 dead overall, so Azerbaijan losses are heavy in terms of personnel if not of equipment.
It will be interesting to see whether adverse weather can help Armenia stabilise the situation. That may be why Azerbaijan is pushing hard for the main Armenia/NK road atm.

Its very hard to ’hide in the hills’, when the other side has 100% air dominance, and that’s exactly what Azerbaijan has, any attempt by the Armenia AF to put in a show brings the Turkish AF out to play.
Nagorno Karabakh was always sparsely populated, now, significant numbers of The very small rump population are fleeing - there’s only so much ‘living off the land’ you can do without being seen In a de facto deserted land.

but we digress, there’s a distinct lack of will now to die for the cause amongst Armenians proper, (80% of the forces in NK are Armenian proper conscripts), and there is Armenian camera phone footage on social media of Armenian dead being buried by the truckload in mass graves by a backhoe that’s not going down well. Increasingly, ‘fighting’ Is a few shots to show willing, then abandon everything and run away as fast as you can. They are nearly all dieing in occupied Azerbaijan proper, and that’s a smart Azeri move, recover the surrounding Azeri region, and let NK wither as its surrounded and pounded by air and artillery.

Smart money? Clear up the western Azeri proper lands, cutting off NK, then hunker down for the winter and continue to attrit and grind down the now cut off Armenian forces in NK by stand off air and missile attacks, while negotiating from a position of strength.

in the past, Baku has been receptive to trading NK and the Lacin corridor for the Meghri corridor along the Iranian border to Nakhchivan along with some of Western Nakhchivan. Yerevan turned that down, I suspect they will be much more receptive this time to any similar offer.

Pashinyan knows the games up, he’s already signaled he wants talks, and Putin wants an end of this, despite Pashinyan claiming defence treaties, Putins sitting this one out. And Armenia’s all out of local friends....Georgia for instance is allowing free transits of Turkish Air Force aircraft to Azerbaijan.
 
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Joshua Slocum

LE
Book Reviewer
it all seems such a dreadful waste of life, for a bit of macho posturing and interefence by other countries leaders hoping to deflect from their own problems
long term it will not acheive anything except to slice families apart and create further hatred
 
it all seems such a dreadful waste of life, for a bit of macho posturing and interefence by other countries leaders hoping to deflect from their own problems
long term it will not acheive anything except to slice families apart and create further hatred


The Armenians have overplayed their hand, they should have done a deal and quit while they were ahead 25 years ago.

Now?
Sultan Erdogan the Magnificent has a plan, and he's going to see it through. He wants to reconnect the Turkic peoples, and he has the muscle to see it through.

See those pipelines?

Baku_pipelines.jpg


Imagine if there was a land corridor to Nakhchivan… it could be through secure friendly Turkic turf all the way. Oh yes, and Israeli gets 43% of its oil and Gas from Baku, unsurprisingly, they are supplying Azerbaijan their very bestest drone war toys and missiles.

Top play by Pashinyan - He's now got BOTH the regional superpowers, Turkey and Israel, on his case.
 
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