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Heavy fighting erupts over separatist Nagorno-Karabakh (Armenia Vs Azerbaijan)

TB2’s cruise @20,000ft, even in daylight, effectively and inaudible to people on the ground.
the last second dash is when they hear the round incoming, now, the interesting thing about the MAM micro munition is its subsonic and unpowered, so it’s going to sound like an incoming dumb bomb or shell, and the ‘correct’ response is to hunker down and wait for it to go off.... unfortunately, it’s not a dumb munition.... see the video where they all dive into a dug out from the gun pit, and the missile does a last second snap course change and dives into the dug out entrance after them.

How sure can we be that it wasn't attacking the dug out in the first place? The idea of the munition chasing individuals has a certain attraction but are we sure that is what was hapening?
 
How certain is the chronology?

I don't think we can know for sure but the more serious identifiers and geolocators on Twitter usually say when they think something is old or repeated.

Here's some footage that appears to show how input from drones is being used to make artillery fire effective.
 
That's a mistranslation!

Pashinyan is not Putins favourite, he‘s Western inclined and came to power courtesy a colour protest that saw off his Pro Moscow predecessor.
it would suit Vlad to see Armenia come unstuck pour encourage les former Soviet autres like Belorus.
 
I don't think we can know for sure but the more serious identifiers and geolocators on Twitter usually say when they think something is old or repeated.

Here's some footage that appears to show how input from drones is being used to make artillery fire effective.

I have linked through to the Youtube videos shown in his tweet stream.


 
How sure can we be that it wasn't attacking the dug out in the first place? The idea of the munition chasing individuals has a certain attraction but are we sure that is what was hapening?

watch the video and watch the very obvious last minute aim correction
 
I have and I ask my question is asked in light of having seen that and some (but not all) of the many others.

its quite a talked about incident as its proof the missile can be target shifted mid course. It had been assumed it was limited to minor course corrections as it's a gravity weapon.
 
Yes. There appears to be a real 'but this is how we have always done it' thing going on with the leadership being unable to understand that the air superiority situation has completely changed.

The dramatic success of drones in this conflict has made me more or less forget the question of air superiority. Do the Armenians in NK have an airforce? Have they ever tried to attain air superiority or if not superiority, at least balance?
I suddenly realised I haven't seen a single photo or video of helicopters of either side and what are their air forces up to, if anything? (Never mind the AN2's used as UAV AD bait)

What I'm getting at is, if over 30 years the Armenians in NK have never even tried to achieve at least a balance of air power with the Azeris, their defeat in any real conflict in NK has pretty much been a foregone conclusion?

In the days when it was still a fairly poor country economically (before there was US support), it took Israel just 19 years, from independence in 1948, until six days in 1967, to build an air force from scratch which then destroyed the entire Egyptian air force and foiled the attacking air forces of Syria, Jordan and Iraq. The Armenians have had thirty years - have they just not bothered?
 
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its quite a talked about incident as its proof the missile can be target shifted mid course. It had been assumed it was limited to minor course corrections as it's a gravity weapon.

Elsewhere there is video of a bunker/dug out (with a canopy/roof type affair extending out over its entrance) on the edge of quite a large revetment with a couple of connecting trenches. The strike lands in the centre of the excavated area seeming to kill some poor sod who was making a dash for the dug-out. I suspect that those who made it into the dug out survived and may well still be effective [possibly immediately]. Would that munition be effective if they had tried to top strike the bunker or if they tried to hit the entrance might the canopy have defeated it?

They are not big munitions and building a few canopies or blast walls across entrances may well mitigate against them to a degree. The trenching looks like the sort of thing I imagine that WW2 Ivan would dig automatically if halted anywhere for long enough. Will they start building them differently now.

I think @loofkar said that the strikes seem to come in waves every few days. I suspect they are doing a lot of looking in between times to identify routines and locations.

ETA the bit in [square brackets].
 
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The dramatic success of drones in this conflict has made me more or less forget the question of air superiority. Do the Armenians in NK have an airforce? Have they ever tried to attain air superiority or if not superiority, at least balance?
I suddenly realised I haven't seen a single photo or video of helicopters of either side and what are their air forces up to, if anything? (Never mind the AN2's used as UAV AD bait)

What I'm getting at is, if over 30 years the Armenians in NK have never even tried to achieve at least a balance of air power with the Azeris, their defeat in any real conflict in NK has pretty much been a foregone conclusion?

In the days when it was still a fairly poor country economically (before there was US support), it took Israel just 19 years, from independence in 1948, until six days in 1967, to build an air force from scratc which then destroyed the entire Egyptian air force and foiled the attacking air forces of Syria, Jordan and Iraq. The Armenians have had thirty years - have they just not bothered?
I'd hazard a guess that any air force/air defence budget that might have existed has mostly mysteriously disappeared into Swiss bank accounts held by the ruling elite*.










*crooks.
 
The dramatic success of drones in this conflict has made me more or less forget the question of air superiority. Do the Armenians in NK have an airforce? Have they ever tried to attain air superiority or if not superiority, at least balance?
I suddenly realised I haven't seen a single photo or video of helicopters of either side and what are their air forces up to, if anything? (Never mind the AN2's used as UAV AD bait)

What I'm getting at is, if over 30 years the Armenians in NK have never even tried to achieve at least a balance of air power with the Azeris, their defeat in any real conflict in NK has pretty much been a foregone conclusion?

In the days when it was still a fairly poor country economically (before there was US support), it took Israel just 19 years, from independence in 1948, until six days in 1967, to build an air force from scratch which then destroyed the entire Egyptian air force and foiled the attacking air forces of Syria, Jordan and Iraq. The Armenians have had thirty years - have they just not bothered?
Unlike Azerbaijan, Armenia has no oil and are still a poor country. Where would they get the money to build a modern air force?
 
It's not bad. The biggest criticism I would have of it is that the area they have marked on the map as NK is everything the Armenians captured in the 90's, some of which were never part of NK and were part of Azerbaijan.
I saw a number of in accuracies in their report, so I would be cautious of taking anything they said as correct.

I've seen a few other videos by TLDR News, and their accuracy is a bit hit and miss. They seem to be just a few guys in their early 20s (university students?) who trawl through the daily news and put out a summary about what they've read. They try to cover a lot, but have no real depth of understanding of the subjects.
 
I saw a number of in accuracies in their report, so I would be cautious of taking anything they said as correct.

I've seen a few other videos by TLDR News, and their accuracy is a bit hit and miss. They seem to be just a few guys in their early 20s (university students?) who trawl through the daily news and put out a summary about what they've read. They try to cover a lot, but have no real depth of understanding of the subjects.

To be expected though, I would have thought.
 
Unlike Azerbaijan, Armenia has no oil and are still a poor country. Where would they get the money to build a modern air force?

I advise looking at the example of what Israel did in those 19 years. She didn't have oil or the industries and hi tech industry she has now either.
She started with whatever sundry clapped out WW2 aircraft she could scratch together.
 
strange the way they still seem to be bunching up in groups like that though
I would have expected the command to be driving it into them from at lest 2 weeks ago - the more alone you are the less attractive a target you are - the danger is very real.
But what we see in these videos is same old, same old.
As was implied by another poster, we need to be cautious about accepting the videos as representing the current situation. The Azerbaijanis probably have a library of footage now, and are reviewing it for propaganda material, but what we see may not represent a chronological representation of the war as it progresses.

One thing that I find odd is that at first we saw no use of camouflage or concealment, then we saw increasing use of it, and then more videos which were like day one of the war again.

We might be seeing older footage which is only now being released. The Azerbaijanis may be doling it out at a rate intended to achieve the maximum propaganda effect.
 
I advise looking at the example of what Israel did in those 19 years. She didn't have oil or the industries and hi tech industry she has now either.
She started with whatever sundry clapped out WW2 aircraft she could scratch together.

Would 'Conventional Air' actually be of much use in this case?
 
I advise looking at the example of what Israel did in those 19 years. She didn't have oil or the industries and hi tech industry she has now either.
She started with whatever sundry clapped out WW2 aircraft she could scratch together.
It's all relative. When Israel started out her neighbours were even further behind in development.

Imagine that Azerbaijan had no oil. Do you think we would be seeing what we're seeing now?
 
The US will apparently be hosting talks in Washington on Friday to try to broker a ceasefire.
Azerbaijan, Armenia say U.S. to host talks over territorial dispute
Armenia and Azerbaijan said on Tuesday their foreign ministers would meet U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Washington on Friday in efforts to end the heaviest fighting in the region of Nagorno-Karabakh since the 1990s.

The speaker of the Turkish parliament criticised mediation efforts by France, Russia, and the US, and told them to stay out of the issue.
In comments to Azerbaijan's parliament, Turkish Parliament Speaker Mustafa Sentop portrayed Armenia as the aggressor and criticized mediation by Paris, Moscow and Washington.

"If they are sincere on their path to peace, those who have held Armenia's leash and supported it for years need to end this dangerous game now and stop supporting Armenia. Azerbaijan does not have another 30 years to wait," Sentop said.

The Minsk Group, he said, "is brain dead."

The president of Azerbaijan said they were will to end the fighting as soon as they have recaptured all of Azerbaijani territory.
In a speech to the nation, Azeri President Ilham Aliyev said Baku was willing to end fighting as soon as possible to complete the restoration of what it sees as its territorial integrity.
 
It's all relative. When Israel started out her neighbours were even further behind in development.

Imagine that Azerbaijan had no oil. Do you think we would be seeing what we're seeing now?

Sorry that's not correct, Egypt had a proper air force and was even backed by the RAF, to the extent that on at least one occasion RAF planes based in Egypt clashed with Israeli planes.


I'm beginning to suspect that if Erdogan and Putin didn't have some kind of agreement between them we wouldn't be seeing quite what we are seeing.
I do wonder whether the "short" sharp blow being inflicted on the Armenians might actually mean that less squaddies on both sides will be killed in the long run.
 

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