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Heavy fighting erupts over separatist Nagorno-Karabakh (Armenia Vs Azerbaijan)

Armenia is in fact a mono-ethnic state. 98% are Armenians.
1.2% are Yazidis
0.4% are Russians
0.4% are other Russian speakers
It is Yazidis military unit with Armenian and Yazidis flags.
1602962979742.png
 
So the Russian kit the Armenians have got is also rubbish at Iron Hand type missions. What is Russian kit good for, apart from being targets?
Yes, Soviet era Osa AD mobile systems
1602963271617.png

appeared to be ineffective and many of them were destroyed by drones.
 
1602963706266.png

Today the city of Fuzuli was taken by Azeri forces.
 
Apologies for presenting the information that way. Armenia seems to be losing men and kit at an alarming rate. Someone on Twitter reviewed the Armenian losses and worked out that half of the dead were born this century.
The only thing I can think of re. the question of why is, the Armenians may not have an answer, but are stuck as the alternative is to pack up and go home.
Humanitarian ceasefire from tomorrow which is some good news though the last one didn't last very long.

I wonder if Armenia's defence treaty with Russia has had a negative psychological effect on their defence planning, a tendency to complacency. Thirty years ago they trounced the Azeries. In the meantime the Azeries began to reinvent themselves while the Armenians give the impression of having remained rather conventional.
I know they must be driven by the memory of their holocaust, in a similar way to how the Holocaust underlies the Israeli psyche.

I wonder if NK is de facto an unsolvable problem for Armenia in a somewhat similar way the West Bank is a problem for Israel.

A small observation in relation to Armenia's well deserved reputation for having so many brilliant and successful members.
The Jews have Einstein and all those Nobel prize winners but as my son remarked after he was drafted into the IDF "I've met people more stupid than I thought it was possible to be stupid."
 
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I wonder if Armenia's defence treaty with Russia has had a negative psychological effect on their defence planning, a tendency to complacency. Thirty years ago they trounced the Azeries. In the meantime the Azeries began to reinvent themselves while the Armenians give the impression of having remained rather conventional.
I know they must be driven by the memory of their holocaust, in a similar way to how the Holocaust underlies the Israeli psyche.

I wonder if NK is de facto an unsolvable problem for Armenia in a somewhat similar way the West Bank is a problem for Israel.

A small observation in relation to Armenia's well deserved reputation for having so many brilliant and successful members.
The Jews had Einstein and all those Nobel prize winners but as my son remarked after he was drafted into the IDF "I've met people more stupid than I thought it was possible to be stupid."
It could be complacency. Armenia has bought and received some Su-30 aircraft (four) and has eight more on order. However, Turkey stationing F-16 aircraft in Azerbaijan may be sufficient deterrent to their use. Perhaps (and this is uninformed speculation on my part) Armenia didn't factor in Turkish involvement?
That said, and in fairness to Russian air defence systems, I imagine the drone wars would challenge the majority of the planet's militaries at this time. Armenia has the Pantsir, which was meant to be very effective. It hasn't worked out that way. What we may not know is how well Western alternatives may have worked.
@KGB_resident has explained why Russia may not wish to become directly involved in Armenia. On paper, being part of a mutual assistance arrangement with Russia would appear to be a very useful thing.
 
I don't get why they're still bunching up - if it had been the IDF there would have been frantic orders to everyone to keep dispersed. I also don't get how they could think firing a ballistic missile at Ganja could help them.
The lack of attempt at camouflage is what I find most surprising. Of course we won't see videos of the sites that the Azeris can't find.
 
It could be complacency. Armenia has bought and received some Su-30 aircraft (four) and has eight more on order. However, Turkey stationing F-16 aircraft in Azerbaijan may be sufficient deterrent to their use. Perhaps (and this is uninformed speculation on my part) Armenia didn't factor in Turkish involvement?
That said, and in fairness to Russian air defence systems, I imagine the drone wars would challenge the majority of the planet's militaries at this time. Armenia has the Pantsir, which was meant to be very effective. It hasn't worked out that way. What we may not know is how well Western alternatives may have worked.
@KGB_resident has explained why Russia may not wish to become directly involved in Armenia. On paper, being part of a mutual assistance arrangement with Russia would appear to be a very useful thing.
The Azeris have a factory somewhere that is building the drones. It might be worth the Armenians trying to destroy it either with their various ballistic missiles, (if they are accurate enough), or try an airstrike? Unless they aren't even capable of that of course.
 
I wonder if Armenia's defence treaty with Russia has had a negative psychological effect on their defence planning, a tendency to complacency. Thirty years ago they trounced the Azeries. In the meantime the Azeries began to reinvent themselves while the Armenians give the impression of having remained rather conventional.
I know they must be driven by the memory of their holocaust, in a similar way to how the Holocaust underlies the Israeli psyche.

I wonder if NK is de facto an unsolvable problem for Armenia in a somewhat similar way the West Bank is a problem for Israel.

A small observation in relation to Armenia's well deserved reputation for having so many brilliant and successful members.
The Jews had Einstein and all those Nobel prize winners but as my son remarked after he was drafted into the IDF "I've met people more stupid than I thought it was possible to be stupid."
Azerbaijan has oil, and has been spending their oil revenues on arms.

Armenia has clever and well educated people, but they're still a poor country.

So long as it was an infantry battle in the mountains, Armenia apparently had enough of an edge to compensate for their lack of modern kit. Azerbaijan however now have found a way to apply technology and money to the fight in a way that Armenia cannot match.

We should also remember however that it's no longer a straight Azerbaijan versus Armenia fight. Turkey have stuck their oar in and there are allegations that a lot of the drones are actually Turkish especially the ones doing reconnaissance and targetting.

Turkey are also involved in supplying Syrian rebel cannon fodder to the fight as well, allowing Azerbaijan to undertake operations that might otherwise produce unacceptable casualties for them.

If Turkey were staying at arms length, then none of this might have happened.
 
It could be complacency. Armenia has bought and received some Su-30 aircraft (four) and has eight more on order. However, Turkey stationing F-16 aircraft in Azerbaijan may be sufficient deterrent to their use. Perhaps (and this is uninformed speculation on my part) Armenia didn't factor in Turkish involvement?
That said, and in fairness to Russian air defence systems, I imagine the drone wars would challenge the majority of the planet's militaries at this time. Armenia has the Pantsir, which was meant to be very effective. It hasn't worked out that way. What we may not know is how well Western alternatives may have worked.
As I mentioned previously, the Azeri’s have had the drones from 2013. They were used as recently as July this year before the most recent ‘counter attack across all fronts’ at the end of last month.

Soldiers tend to talk even in such rigidly controlled states. I can’t understand why basic ‘cam and concealment’ doesn’t appear to be happening. That and properly digging in.

I tend to think there must be some complacency in the Armenian military as they still don’t appear to be reacting to the clear drone threat even now. That is if the images/fmv are recent.
@KGB_resident has explained why Russia may not wish to become directly involved in Armenia. On paper, being part of a mutual assistance arrangement with Russia would appear to be a very useful thing.
Medvedev, albeit 10 years ago

"only in the case of a foreign intrusion and an attempt to externally seize power can we state that there is an attack against the CSTO,"

Obviously, Putin may think differently, but seeing as it’s still nominally Azeri territory and Russia along with France and the US have been trying to get a resolution to the conflict .....
 
The Azeris have a factory somewhere that is building the drones. It might be worth the Armenians trying to destroy it either with their various ballistic missiles, (if they are accurate enough), or try an airstrike? Unless they aren't even capable of that of course
I agree they need to try something. I think a complicating factor with Armenian use of aircraft is the presence of Turkish fighter aircraft in Azerbaijan.
 
rate of attrition


How long can they go on for like this?
The most interesting bit is that some of those scenes are starting to show attempts at camouflage. They see to be just getting started at it however, as the personnel are still walking around outside the camouflage in full view, and they're still parking along wheel tracks which point straight to them.

A big shipment of camouflage nets and instructors from Russia to Armenia might make things more difficult for the Azerbaijanis and Turks.
 
As I mentioned previously, the Azeri’s have had the drones from 2013. They were used as recently as July this year before the most recent ‘counter attack across all fronts’ at the end of last month.

Soldiers tend to talk even in such rigidly controlled states. I can’t understand why basic ‘cam and concealment’ doesn’t appear to be happening. That and properly digging in.

I tend to think there must be some complacency in the Armenian military as they still don’t appear to be reacting to the clear drone threat even now. That is if the images/fmv are recent.

Medvedev, albeit 10 years ago

"only in the case of a foreign intrusion and an attempt to externally seize power can we state that there is an attack against the CSTO,"

Obviously, Putin may think differently, but seeing as it’s still nominally Azeri territory and Russia along with France and the US have been trying to get a resolution to the conflict .....
That makes sense (Medvedev's words).
I agree about Armenian complacency. The only credible thing I can think of as an excuse is that they believed their ground-based air defence would be effective?
I read something a few weeks ago which said that Russian armed forces had themselves concluded that Pantsir had failed, and were looking for a replacement.
 
Armenia didn't buy Russian drones while some could be very useful now. Among them are
Orlan-10 - range 120km, altitude 5km.
1602968347776.png

Orion - 24h in the air, range 250km, load 300kg.
1602968231673.png

Altius-U - 48h in the air, altitude up to 12km.
1602968150211.png

Soon Russian AF will get
Hunter - speed 1000km/h, altitude 18km, load 1800 kg.
And there is a new drone - Thunder with undisclosed characteristics.
 
The most interesting bit is that some of those scenes are starting to show attempts at camouflage. They see to be just getting started at it however, as the personnel are still walking around outside the camouflage in full view, and they're still parking along wheel tracks which point straight to them.

A big shipment of camouflage nets and instructors from Russia to Armenia might make things more difficult for the Azerbaijanis and Turks.

I reckon most of these valuable assets - AD, Comms, Radar, AFV etc are driving into pre- dug positions.
These pre -dug positions have been pre recce'd by the Azeri drones - geo referenced and revisited every now and then.
Stick a cam net over the top = suspicious.
Switch on thermal imaging - get a heat signature .... Boom.

I have watched our western high tech drone technology giving us the edge against ISIS , Taliban etc, part of an inter- connected network of a few very expensive items working brilliantly together.

I believe what we are seeing here - and new- is a lot of cheaper units doing the same thing, and doing it well.

Happy to be shown I'm wrong as I don't like seeing a technological advantage working well in the hand of Islam.
This is far more dangerous than pray and spray and chop a few heads off.
 
Most of the Bayrakters that are doing the trench clearing are Turkish and being flown from Turkish bases.
If the Armenians try sending up fighters to interfere with them, the Turks will simply send in their F-16’s again

6A29B119-3C44-491E-A8EA-ECB43318CF2C.jpeg
 
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Oryx
@oryxspioenkop


Replying to
@oryxspioenkop
Azerbaijan attempts to fight a war of the future. Armenia attempts to stop this by fighting a war of the past. They can't adapt to this new type of warfare. They won't negotiate. They won't surrender. The results will show.

armenia is in the same place Israel was in 1973 - relying on fixed fortified lines to hold back a bigger and technically evolving enemy.
 
A couple of pages back there is a video that shows at least a platoon's worth of dead Azeris. Have you seen anything from the Azeri Govt that acknowledges that even happened? I haven't.

im sure if the Armenians had more pictures of lots of dead Azeri troops, they’d post them, but so far.... crickets.
 
im sure if the Armenians had more pictures of lots of dead Azeri troops, they’d post them, but so far.... crickets.

Drones film what they attack. Artillery and Infantry generally don't.

The Armenians have actually released multiple videos of what their artillery and infantry are doing, but with the Azeris refusing to acknowledge that they are taking casualties at all none of really know what kind of effect it is having.




 

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